Betting experts offer prop-bet tips for Super Bowl players, trends

LAS VEGAS — Last summer, third-generation Nevada handicapper Alexandra White tabbed new Bears lineman Joe Thuney as AP Protector of the Year, the NFL’s newest honor.

At Circa Sports, she nabbed 27-to-1 odds.

It can be argued that the ultra-durable Thuney was the rock of the premier offensive line and should be so honored Thursday at the league’s awards show.

If so, White deserves Prognosticator of the Year, and she leads our Super Bowl LX proposition coverage.

She favors Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson to tally more than 20.5 receiving yards, citing the team’s knack for using him via the air and Treveyon Henderson by land.

Moreover, White noted how the Seahawks don’t defend running backs catching the ball as well as they clog runs. At DraftKings, 22+ receiving yards for Stevenson is -111 (or risk $111 to win $100); 25+ is +115.

She also likes Seahawks tailback Kenneth Walker III over 22 receiving yards, at -116 (odds subject to change).

White is debating whether to bite on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks’ dynamic receiver whose 90+ receiving-yards prop is -139.

“The Patriots haven’t really seen a true No. 1 receiver,” White said of their playoff run. “Smith-Njigba is one of the best, so they’ll have to find a way to play him.”

Packers linebacker Micah Parsons wrote on X that he’s most eager to see Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez mirror Smith-Njigba.

White also favors one team recording three consecutive scores, which she provided here a year ago for Eagles-Chiefs; it hit. At DraftKings, yes is -165.

“It’s 16-10 in the past 26 Super Bowls, and it hit in four of the past six,” she said. “People are catching on.”

Independently, both of us took flyers on Seahawks receiver Cooper Kupp getting MVP honors, her ticket at 250-1, mine at 100-1. Should the Patriots overplay Smith-Njigba, Kupp might find room to romp.

Remember, he snagged MVP honors with the Rams in Super Bowl LVI.

Making his mark

White can be heard on Vegas sports-talk radio shows, providing sharp betting tactics. She also co-hosts the daily “Sports By The Book” show, streamed from the South Point studio, with Jeff Parles.

Last summer, Parles gave us the Bears to have a 10-win season and, at +180, make the playoffs. For Super Bowl LX, he’s bullish about the Seahawks’ defense. Patriots lineman Will Campbell has had a rough postseason, Parles said, and he envisions the Seahawks capitalizing on that weakness. In particular, he favors Seahawks defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, at 100-1, to win MVP.

“Lawrence had some huge games this season, including one in which he scored twice,” Parles said. “I expect him to mostly match up against Campbell. Shop around for better odds as we get closer to the game.”

A shorty

In Southern California, handicapper Tommy Lorenzo favors under 1.5 yards for the game’s shortest touchdown. DraftKings had that priced at -135, and Lorenzo likes it as high as -150.

“A [one-yard] TD has occurred in 24 of the past 35 Super Bowls and four of the past five editions,” he said. “At that rate, the line should be around -220, so that’s built-in value.”

Daring Darnold

Dealing with early deadlines to present picks with a full week to deliberate about them, our experts didn’t have access to the deep menus Vegas books will produce.

At the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), senior broadcaster/scribe and Indiana native Matt Youmans bet the Patriots getting five points.

“I think the underdog is live in this game,” Youmans said, “and I still have some doubts about [Seahawks quarterback Sam] Darnold.”

The Patriots are so stout against the run, Youmans believes coach Mike Vrabel will dare Darnold to beat them through the air. Thus, Youmans likes Darnold over 29.5 throws, +102 at FanDuel.

“The Seattle coaches probably have enough confidence in Darnold to let it fly,” Youmans said. “He had 36 and 34 pass attempts in the past two games against the Rams, and he’ll likely need to throw it more than 30 times against the Patriots.”

Sluggish starts

Super Bowls typically start slow as teams size each other up and get a feel for the grand stage, which Sam Panayotovich counts on recurring this year.

Last year’s game had a 7-0 score after 15 minutes, and the Chicago native, a Fox Sports online betting analyst who operates the popular “Chicken Dinner” betting podcast, grabbed his calculator. He favors under 8.5 first-quarter points, at -110.

“In the past 11 Super Bowls, there’s been an average of 6.6 first-quarter points,” Panayotovich said. “I respect these two defenses a ton, and I’ll rely again on offensive nerves and inexperienced quarterbacks. It helps to trust the math, too.”

Real deal ‘D’

Professional bettor Chuck Edel, the longtime Las Vegas resident and another Chicago native, bets Maye to throw for fewer than 221 yards.

“He has played against some bad defenses this season,” Edel said. “When he has gone up against top defenses, his passing yards have been less than 200 yards, for the most part.

“Seattle’s pass defense has yielded an average of 199.5 yards.”

Another close one?

At the tip of Long Island, handicapper Tom Barton respects both defenses.

Barton likes the Caesars -220 price on Henderson, the Pats’ running back, running for more yardage than Darnold.

Henderson has failed to run for at least 24 yards in only four games this season, while Darnold has galloped for nine or fewer yards in each of his last six games. Barton also favors Walker over 14.5 yards.

In total tackles, he likes Ernest Jones over 8.5 and Gonzalez over 5.

He also welcomes overtime, at 11-1.

Lastly, he likes over 7.5 punts, -115 at Caesars. Seahawks punter Michael Dickson had five against the Rams, three against the 49ers and at least four in seven other games. Pats kicker Bryce Baringer has punted eight times in each of his last two games.

When he finds it, he will also bet the Patriots over 3.5 or four punts.

Beware overs

Barton recommends, in general, wagering under on most props. He knows that the books know that Joe Six-Pack relishes betting on overs.

“And that means a lot of under action for me on props,” Barton said. “I’ll wait till the game gets closer, to hit some unders for players. Return payoffs will rise because everyone likes overs.”

Pro bettor Bill Krackomberger, a longtime Vegas resident, concurred, adding that many bet “yes” options, especially at plus prices, too.

“The sportsbooks know this,” he said. “Yes this or that player scores a touchdown, yes there will be a safety, yes there will be overtime. ‘No’ is actually the value.

“Bet your overs on player props early and unders more toward game time. The public loves betting over on marquee players closer to the game, when they can free up money. They don’t like tying up money for two weeks.”