Huge fuel price cuts on the horizon

South Africa’s long-squeezed motorists might find fresh relief next month as recent data
from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) data points to meaningful  fuel price cuts  in February — a rare bright spot in a world rattled by geopolitical theatrics and jittery oil markets.

In an unexpected twist, the rand has staged its strongest run in more than three years, overpowering a rise in international oil prices and clearing the runway for across-the-board reductions at the pumps.

With the rand rally, motorists are finally winning at the pumps, just as cash-strapped consumers emerge from January — the longest and toughest month on the national wallet — and start hunting for spare rand to mark Valentine’s Day. 

February has become another big-spending stretch, with younger generations splurging on the growing economy of love and romance.

Mid-month indicators from the CEF show robust over-recoveries for both petrol and diesel, signalling potential decreases of:

• Petrol 93: –66 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: –69 cents/litre
• Diesel 0.05%: –63 cents/litre
• Diesel 0.005%: –71 cents/litre
• Illuminating paraffin: –60 cents/litre

The projected cuts come after a turbulent spell in global markets. A diplomatic dust-up — triggered by US President Donald Trump’s provocative threat that America would take control of Greenland “one way or another” — sparked a brief but sharp standoff with the European Union, complete with tariff warnings. Oil prices jumped from $62 to $65 a barrel before tension cooled at the World Economic Forum in Davos, easing fears of yet another global trade war.

Earlier forecasts dangled the prospect of even steeper reductions — more than R1 a litre for petrol and more than R1.60 for diesel — but the oil price wobble has since trimmed those gains.

The real game-changer has been the rand’s surge to R16.09 to the dollar, its firmest footing in three and a half years. The greenback has softened amid Washington’s controversial foreign policy manoeuvres, while South Africa has enjoyed a rare confluence of positive domestic developments. 

These include its removal from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force founded by G7 countries in Paris, France, in 1989; the country’s first sovereign ratings upgrade in two decades and a firmer growth outlook of 1.5% for 2026 and 2027.

The combination has helped insulate consumers from the full brunt of rising oil prices and for once, tilted the balance in favour of motorists.

Why it matters 

Fuel is a major inflation driver. A meaningful cut eases pressure on households, taxi operators, logistics and food prices.

At last after the festive season’s high-spending tradition, South Africa’s motorists are finally in line for some long-overdue relief at the pumps. 

If current trends hold, February could deliver the most meaningful fuel price relief South Africans have seen in years — a welcome breather for households, businesses and the broader economy.

At least many of us in the motoring world will not be seeing red in the new month when cash-strapped consumers will then start hunting for spare rand to mark Valentine’s Day.

Marlan Padayachee, formerly a political, diplomatic and foreign correspondent, is a freelance journalist, photographer and researcher.