Turkey to offer mediation in US-Iran showdown

Friday's visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi comes after US President Donald Trump threatened a military strike on Iran over its deadly protest crackdown this month and the lack of a nuclear agreement.

A US naval strike group is in the Middle East and Trump has warned it was "ready, willing and able" to hit Iran "if necessary".

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will tell Araghchi that his country "is ready to contribute to resolving the current tensions through dialogue", a Turkish diplomatic source said.

Fidan would reiterate Turkey's opposition "to military interventions against Iran (over) the regional and global risks such a step would entail", said the source, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

-'Security risks'-

Speaking to Al-Jazeera television on Wednesday, Fidan said he had suggested Washington tackle outstanding issues with Iran "one-by-one", starting with the nuclear file rather than trying to address everything at once.

His remarks reflected Tehran's own stance on talks, said Serhan Afacan, director of IRAM, the Ankara-based Centre for Iranian Studies.

"If Trump invites the Iranians to reach a deal on the nuclear file, they are going to say yes. But if you put all of the issues in the same basket, that will be impossible," he said.

"For now, the ballistic missile programme remains a red line, as it sits at the core of Iran’s defence architecture," he said.

"Compromise is not impossible, but it would only come after long rounds of negotiations and if Tehran’s security concerns -- especially vis-a-vis the US and Israel -- are substantially addressed," he told AFP.

"It all depends on what President Trump is going to say: if he says 'I'm not going to attack Iran' we should expect to see negotiations in a matter of weeks."

- Turkey seeking trilateral talks?

As well as Turkey's diplomatic efforts to stave off a military confrontation, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also been pushing Washington for a high-level trilateral meeting, Turkish media reports said.

There was no official confirmation.

"Turkey's focus in US-Iran relations is not necessarily on resolving all disputes, but on preventing a military intervention," Ankara-based Iranian academic Arif Keskin told AFP, saying a strike risked generating serious security problems and possible mass migration.

Turkey's stance aligned with the approach of pro-negotiation circles in Iran, he said.

"At this stage, it is widely acknowledged that the actor that would benefit most from negotiations and a potential agreement would be the Iranian leadership itself," Keskin said.

"Even the initiation of talks is viewed as a significant gain for Iran."
Contingency plans
Alongside its diplomatic push, Ankara is assessing additional security precautions along its border with Iran if a US strike destabilises the country, a senior Turkish official told AFP.

Much of the 500-kilometre (310-mile) frontier is secured by a wall, but "it has proven insufficient", said the official.

Ankara has so far avoided the term "buffer zone" but options under review include deploying more troops and expanding technological surveillance systems, the official added.

Turkey began the wall in 2021 over concerns about a migrant influx following the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.

Despite unrest in Iran and the threat of a US strike, there has been no evidence of any large-scale movements towards the border, the defence ministry said earlier this month.

To date, Turkey has built 380 kilometres (236 miles) of concrete wall and 553 kilometres of trenches with nearly 250 surveillance towers, official figures show, with drones providing round-the clock reconnaissance.

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