Raptors’ Ingram Paradox on full display in loss to Knicks

It is theoretically possible, thanks to quantum tunnelling, that a solid be permeated at any moment. Most things are just empty space, after all. Particles are waves, are uncertain, could align themselves in just the right way at just the right moment, for your hand to pass through a table when you press down upon it.

Nothing is truly solid. Certainty doesn’t exist. Thanks Heisenberg, Schrodinger, et al! It’s possible that even the warmest, coziest, safest blanket can vanish if fate aligns.

Which brings us, and the Toronto Raptors, to Brandon Ingram. He has been perhaps most defined by solidity this season. He has played in every game but two on the season; he is three away from the league high in games played. In his first game as a Raptor, he scored 16 points, and in the following he scored 29. Since then, he has scored within that range in 34 of 45 games. The Raptors can basically guarantee Ingram will perform at a certain level, night in and night out. His defensive rebounding has been similarly consistent. After a slow start from behind the arc on the year, he is up to 35.7 on the season from deep, right in line with his career average.

Against the New York Knicks, Ingram and the Raptors race out to a 7-0 lead. Ingram bottles multiple half-hearted drives. After one, he then switches onto Karl-Anthony Towns and pokes the ball loose when he tries to drive, leading to a Scottie Barnes layup in transition and a Knicks’ timeout. Ingram is not just a scorer. He has been very solid on the defensive end recently, too.

So why have the Raptors been consistently worse with him on the floor than on the bench this season? In fact, Toronto has been 4.6 points per 100 possessions worse with Ingram playing, which has been the second-worst among rotation players on the team. (And before you say it’s because of his poor start to the season on the defensive end, the Raptors have been worse on both ends with Ingram playing, meaning he has a negative offensive on-off differential, too.) In other words: why has a thing that has seemed most solid ended up from one very specific angle looking quite permeable?

The Raptors are much better with Ingram in house. They won 30 games in all of 2024-25 and are already at 29 this season despite losing to the Knicks. Yet the Raptors are better with Ingram on the bench this season. Call it quantum basketball.

Part of the answer to the Ingram question comes from the on-off stat itself. His on-off differential perhaps is less significant to Ingram’s purpose on the Raptors than his pure on-court performance. And that number looks at Ingram in a far better light. He has played in 1567 of Toronto’s 2324 total minutes, or 67 percent of the totality of basketball played by the Raptors. And he has won those minutes by 59 points. That’s a baseline of performance, largely coming against other team’s best lineups, defended by their best defenders, that the Raptors simply lacked last season. Toronto’s three minutes leaders in 2024-25 each lost their minutes by triple digits.

And Ingram continues that solidity against the Knicks. He switches between Towns and Josh Hart, eventually closing out well to force a miss from Hart. However, his offence is jumbled. He misses a hanging mid-range jumper, a corner triple, a layup out of pick and roll. With the rest of the offence rolling, he can’t quite find his rhythm.

Sure, the Raptors have been better without Ingram this season. But that has only been enabled by his presence in all those other minutes. He has been the big-top circus tent under which the other players exist. Yes, there are more exciting acts under that tent. But they all depend on the circumference of his impact, of the tasks he absorbs on the basketball court.

“He breeds confidence in his teammates,” said Darko Rajakovic before the game.

Barnes and RJ Barrett check out of the game midway through the first quarter, and Ingram gets more time to shine. Now the Raptors need him, rather than him simply adding a cherry on top of what’s already working. He draws free throws immediately. On the next possession, he drives deep into the paint and squirts the ball to the corner, which eventually after some pingery results in some free throws for Collin Murray-Boyles. More starters leave, and now Ingram is alone with Murray-Boyles and three bench players. He swoops in from the corner to steal a contested defensive rebound he has no business grabbing, then hits a mid-range stepback. Murray-Boyles leaves, and Ingram and the bench survive with their defence.

“[Ingram] was in the right spots,” said Rajakovic after the game. “He’s really trying to improve his defence. Primarily understanding what length he has, and how he can be disruptive with steals.”

Barnes enters, and he and the bench pound the Knicks’ heads into the dirt. Toronto survives to start as Jamal Shead and Murray-Boyles steal possessions. Murray-Boyles at one point stands up Towns as he Knick tries to drive him backwards with a shoulder then erases his layup around the rim.

There are elements of Ingram’s performance as a Raptor that have contributed to the team performing better without him. The team has scored 0.78 points per possessions when Ingram has isolated, which ranks 25th of 26 players to have isolated 3.0 times per game. (Only Ja Morant has scored less efficiently out of isolation.) He shoots 1-of-4 from the field in the first quarter for Toronto, but he wins his minutes by seven points.

“He’s very humble, he’s a true gentleman,” said Rajakovic of Ingram. “I think there is a lot to learn from him. The way he behaves on the court, the way he works, the way he respects the game, the way he respects referees and any participant in the game.”

He is a killer on the court. But he does it with the utmost respect. He gives the team confidence and role definition. And they’re better with him on the bench. A paradox at every turn, defined both by his remarkable consistency and his indefinability.

Ingram enters the game in the second quarter and draws free throws, then traps Jalen Brunson and forces a turnover. Grabs an offensive rebound, up-fakes OG Anunoby into the stands, and drives for a layup. Doesn’t get back in transition, but then hits a triple to force a timeout. He’s calm, certain in himself. Meanwhile, his teammates have gone ice cold, but Ingram’s confidence holds the foundations of the Raptors aloft. The Raptors still lead, just barely, as Barnes guards Brunson and basically erases him from the game. By halftime, Ingram’s 4-of-8 from the field marks him the most efficient Raptor in the game.

A smooth runner opens the third. Then he runs a high pick and roll, gets his body into Anunoby, and scurries to the left for a fadeaway. Hits a triple. He tips the ball away on an inbounds to force a turnover, then draws free throws. It’s safe to say he has found his rhythm. It is a brief stretch of pure, unadulterated, alchemical brilliance that rebuilds Toronto’s lead. His teammates nod solemnly, clap their hands.

The Knicks accordion back as the Raptors commit some silly turnovers trying to get Ingram the ball. More turnovers trying to force the ball to Ingram, and the Knicks take the lead. Ingram gives up a straight-line blowby to Anunoby for a layup. Ingram isolates again and misses. He gives up a backdoor cut. The Raptors turn it over, again and again. New York’s lead grows to double digits.

“When someone denies you, you need to go on a backdoor cut,” said Rajakovic after the game. “You cannot force feed somebody… We gotta be able to find [Ingram] on some cuts and movements, but if not there, we don’t have to force it.”

Toronto’s performance has tilted heavily to overreliance at this point. A blanket can be too warm, too safe. For the last few minutes, the Raptors have needed to break free of their cozy confines and run real offence.

In a way that is both bizarre and bizarrely common, Ingram has a team-low plus-minus through three quarters. He has been the team’s only offensive weapon for vast swathes of the game, and his defence has been stout, yet he has lost his minutes by 11 points. The beatdown continues in the fourth quarter as the defence, tasked with perfection, fumbles beneath Anunoby’s onslaught. Ingram throws some incredibly manipulative passes and gets to 27 efficiency points, but Toronto can’t make a run.

This season has not been an indictment of Ingram or the Raptors. It has largely been a celebration of both. But there is a paradox lurking in the relationship, a quantum uncertainty that can at times turn the particles in Ingram’s stability into void space, can transform the warm blanket he provides into a constriction.

His minutes can be the least dangerous for the Raptors, but that empowers them to win the remainder. Against the Knicks, that wasn’t a winning formula. Certainty doesn’t exist, no matter how much Ingram represents it for these Raptors.

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