Raptors film room: The team has a growing math problem

The Raptors couldn’t play a full 48 minutes of basketball versus the New York Knicks in their first game back from an impressive 4-1 West Coast road trip. While they seemed in control in the first half, the Knicks blew the game wide open with hot shooting and a game plan that poked at the Raptors offense.

The Raptors are now 1-9 versus the best teams in the NBA. I break down why their offense fails them in these matchups:

Here is Louis Zatzman on the conundrum with Brandon Ingram:

There are elements of Ingram’s performance as a Raptor that have contributed to the team performing better without him. The team has scored 0.78 points per possessions when Ingram has isolated, which ranks 25th of 26 players to have isolated 3.0 times per game. (Only Ja Morant has scored less efficiently out of isolation.) He shoots 1-of-4 from the field in the first quarter for Toronto, but he wins his minutes by seven points.

“He’s very humble, he’s a true gentleman,” said Rajakovic of Ingram. “I think there is a lot to learn from him. The way he behaves on the court, the way he works, the way he respects the game, the way he respects referees and any participant in the game.”

He is a killer on the court. But he does it with the utmost respect. He gives the team confidence and role definition. And they’re better with him on the bench. A paradox at every turn, defined both by his remarkable consistency and his indefinability.

Ingram enters the game in the second quarter and draws free throws, then traps Jalen Brunson and forces a turnover. Grabs an offensive rebound, up-fakes OG Anunoby into the stands, and drives for a layup. Doesn’t get back in transition, but then hits a triple to force a timeout. He’s calm, certain in himself. Meanwhile, his teammates have gone ice cold, but Ingram’s confidence holds the foundations of the Raptors aloft. The Raptors still lead, just barely, as Barnes guards Brunson and basically erases him from the game. By halftime, Ingram’s 4-of-8 from the field marks him the most efficient Raptor in the game.

A smooth runner opens the third. Then he runs a high pick and roll, gets his body into Anunoby, and scurries to the left for a fadeaway. Hits a triple. He tips the ball away on an inbounds to force a turnover, then draws free throws. It’s safe to say he has found his rhythm. It is a brief stretch of pure, unadulterated, alchemical brilliance that rebuilds Toronto’s lead. His teammates nod solemnly, clap their hands.

The Knicks accordion back as the Raptors commit some silly turnovers trying to get Ingram the ball. More turnovers trying to force the ball to Ingram, and the Knicks take the lead. Ingram gives up a straight-line blowby to Anunoby for a layup. Ingram isolates again and misses. He gives up a backdoor cut. The Raptors turn it over, again and again. New York’s lead grows to double digits.

“When someone denies you, you need to go on a backdoor cut,” said Rajakovic after the game. “You cannot force feed somebody… We gotta be able to find [Ingram] on some cuts and movements, but if not there, we don’t have to force it.”

Toronto’s performance has tilted heavily to overreliance at this point. A blanket can be too warm, too safe. For the last few minutes, the Raptors have needed to break free of their cozy confines and run real offence.

In a way that is both bizarre and bizarrely common, Ingram has a team-low plus-minus through three quarters. He has been the team’s only offensive weapon for vast swathes of the game, and his defence has been stout, yet he has lost his minutes by 11 points. The beatdown continues in the fourth quarter as the defence, tasked with perfection, fumbles beneath Anunoby’s onslaught. Ingram throws some incredibly manipulative passes and gets to 27 efficiency points, but Toronto can’t make a run.

This season has not been an indictment of Ingram or the Raptors. It has largely been a celebration of both. But there is a paradox lurking in the relationship, a quantum uncertainty that can at times turn the particles in Ingram’s stability into void space, can transform the warm blanket he provides into a constriction.

His minutes can be the least dangerous for the Raptors, but that empowers them to win the remainder. Against the Knicks, that wasn’t a winning formula. Certainty doesn’t exist, no matter how much Ingram represents it for these Raptors.

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