Banks and energy lead NBG Securities’ positive Greek outlook

NBG Securities remained positive on Greek equities in 2026, citing scope for further gains as it raised its target prices by an average of around 13 per cent for the stocks under coverage.

The investment firm highlighted Metlen, Motor Oil, Profile and Piraeus as its four top picks, according to reporting by Greek business outlet Newmoney.

NBG Securities explained that its preferred stocks were selected on the basis of strong fundamentals, visible growth, solid balance sheets and attractive valuations.

According to NBG Securities, Metlen and Motor Oil offer reliable value, combining strong balance sheets with healthy dividend yields, while Piraeus provides the highest upside potential among the Greek systemic banks.

As regards price targets, NBG Securities set a target of €60.5 for Metlen, implying 40 per cent upside, €41 for Motor Oil with 25 per cent upside, €10 for Profile with 28 per cent upside, and €9.9 for Piraeus with 20 per cent upside.

NBG Securities assessed that the Greek economy will remain resilient in the coming years, with GDP growth expected to significantly outperform the EU average, a factor it said would support equity prices.

It added that dividend yields remain higher than those of peers, while valuations continue to look low, particularly in the banking sector, despite a narrowing of discounts.

However, the firm cautioned that strong recent market outperformance, escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade have weakened the short term investment case for European equities, with a potential negative spillover to Greece, it said.

NBG Securities also pointed out that, as in most EU markets, macroeconomic and political risks are viewed as threats to performance this year, although Greece appears to be faring better on that front.

Turning to potential catalysts, NBG Securities recalled that on January 26, 2026, MSCI proposed upgrading the MSCI Greece index to Developed Market status, while in October FTSE Russell announced Greece’s upgrade to Developed Market status, effective from September 21, 2026.

It added that in July S&P Dow Jones also proposed an upgrade to Developed Market status, which is expected to be implemented at the September 2026 review.

NBG Securities further said it was likely that STOXX may follow the same path, with a potential upgrade in April 2026, effective from September 2026.

While the short term impact of these upgrades on investment flows and market performance remains uncertain, NBG Securities estimated that the overall effect would be positive in the long term, signalling a return of Greek equities to normality and attracting larger investors with a long term horizon.

Another structural development shaping the next phase of Greek equities is the planned integration of the Athens Stock Exchange into the Euronext ecosystem, the firm said.

Through Euronext’s Single Order Book, Athens is expected to connect to a deep pan-European liquidity pool, offering improved price discovery, spreads and execution quality, NBG Securities explained.

The transition to a unified clearing and settlement framework is also expected to simplify post-trade processes, reduce costs and enhance overall market efficiency, it added.

NBG Securities said it firmly believes that these two catalysts provide strong support for Greek equities in the years ahead.