NYC snowfall sees millions of dollars traded on prediction markets

The recent snowstorm in New York City surprisingly led to Kalshi’s largest climate-related market, according to a report, but not everyone is happy with the outcome. It also comes just weeks after Polymarket declined to pay out on bets about whether the U.S. military would invade Venezuela, pointing to disputes over how the wording was interpreted.

The publisher Barrons says a spokesperson told them the snowstorm market is the largest climate-related market the Kalshi platform has ever seen, with 17,418 traders having traded $5.1 million on the market as of early Monday afternoon (January 26).

The NYC snowstorm market is @Kalshi's largest ever climate market, a spokesperson tells me, with more than 17,000 traders participating and $5.3m in volume.

One New York-local trader I talked to got his edge by measuring snowfall on a parked car. pic.twitter.com/VP1HOFXUqr

— Nick Devor (@nickdevor_) January 26, 2026

The company began accepting bets on the snowfall across its prediction market, with a focus on inch counts ranging between two inches and two feet. Ahead of the snow beginning to fall, the region of New York City and New Jersey was predicted to see somewhere between eight to 14 inches of snow, depending on the actual location.

The Kalshi market asked people the question ‘Snow in New York City from Jan 24-26?’ with the outcome detailed as being verified through the National Weather Service which measures snowfall in NYC at Central Park.

NYC snowfall on prediction markets focused on Central Park

In the comments, though, some people suggest it was “misleading” as they didn’t realize it would be focused on Central Park snow only.

I've been trading the NYC snow market on Kalshi. As of time of writing, it has $3mm volume. Polymarket has around $550k volume in total. From what I can tell, they have the same resolution terms (would love to be fact-checked on that).

You'd think that higher volume = more…

— SurfShopCapital (@SurfShopCapital) January 26, 2026

In one comment, left under the original market, someone said: “I feel bad for all the beginners that read the title and bet on snow in NYC. There WAS more than 12” of snow in NYC, just not in the one spot that matters…”

They continued to say the title should have included ‘in Central Park NYC’ to make it clearer.

Others, however, in the comments section on Kalshi, have suggested people read the rules.

It wasn’t just Kalshi that allowed people to wager on the weather event though, as Polymarket opened similar markets too with it titled ‘How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26).’

In the first line of Polymarket’s rules, they do state the market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Central Park, New York City, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Further down in the rules, they mention it will be focused on the Central Park area once more.

Featured Image: Via Ekahbishek on Wikimedia Commons, CC 2.0

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