Pafos head to final Champions League game with hope still alive

Defending Cypriot champions Pafos FC head into their final Champions League league phase tie on Wednesday night with a slim, albeit mathematically possible chance of qualifying for the knockout stage of Europe’s premier football competition.

They will play Czech outfit Slavia Prague in Limassol, with all 18 Champions League fixtures set to kick off simultaneously, and six places in the knockout round playoffs still mathematically up for grabs.

Pafos FC currently sit in 30th place of 36 teams in the league phase table, having picked up six points from their seven games so far and with a goal difference of minus six, with the top 24 in the table set to advance to the next round. The table’s top eight will advance directly to the round of 16, though Pafos FC are out of the running for this.

Mathematically, it is possible for the Cypriot side to finish as high as 19th, though they will need to beat Slavia Prague and hope results elsewhere go their way.

In 19th place currently are Marseille, with the remaining places between the French outfit and Pafos FC filled by Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, PSV Eindhoven, Athletic Club Bilbao, Olympiacos, Napoli, Copenhagen, Club Brugge, Bodo/Glimt, and Benfica.

Below Pafos FC but still mathematically in with a chance of qualifying are Union Saint-Gilloise in 31st place and Ajax in 32nd place. Both are level on points with Pafos FC but have worse goal differences.

The Cypriot side, therefore, require six of the 11 sides ahead of them to drop points, and for neither side below them to overhaul their goal difference advantage.

They will be aided in this endeavour by the fact that Marseille are playing Club Brugge, given that it is impossible for both sides to win that fixture at the Jan Breydel Stadium.

The likely best result for Pafos FC would be a Marseille win or a draw, given the fact that they would require a six-goal swing in goal difference, even if Marseille lost, to overtake the French outfit, while they can leapfrog Club Brugge with a win, so long as Club Brugge do not also win, as the Belgian side only have seven points.

Additionally, Olympiacos will travel to Amsterdam to face Ajax, with an Ajax victory the best possible result for Pafos, as their goal difference is far superior. If Pafos FC beat Slavia Prague by a single goal, Ajax would have to beat Olympiacos by seven to finish above Pafos FC in the table.

However, every other side in direct competition with Pafos FC will play a team which is outside the picture, meaning that they will require favours from teams with no skin in the game.

Bayer Leverkusen host Villareal, who are mathematically out of the competition and who were beaten by Pafos FC in November, while Monaco’s opponents Juventus have already mathematically secured their path to the knockout stages, though they could advance directly to the round of 16 if they beat Monaco and results elsewhere go their way.

PSV Eindhoven will play Bayern Munich at, who hammered Pafos FC 5-1 in September, and who have already booked their place in the round of 16, at home, while Athletic Club Bilbao face Sporting Lisbon, who, like Juventus, are mathematically sure of a place in the knockout stages but have aspirations of a top eight spot.

Napoli, Copenhagen, Bodo/Glimt, and Union Saint-Gilloise will face Chelsea, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and Atalanta respectively, with all four level on points and in the same position as Sporting Lisbon, while Benfica will host Real Madrid, who require a draw to qualify for the round of 16.

Paphite eyes, therefore, will be on 12 of the 18 fixtures taking place on Wednesday night – their own plus the 11 matches which will affect their final standing in the table.

To qualify, they need to win, and hope that six of the sides above them drop points. Draws for Olympiacos, Napoli, Copenhagen, Club Brugge, Bodo/Glimt, and Benfica will be enough, while they will likely have to hope for defeats for Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, PSV Eindhoven, and Athletic Club Bilbao.

Firstly, however, they will need to win their own fixture, having been out of form of late.

They have lost their last three games on the bounce, with a battling but ultimately fruitless 1-0 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge being sandwiched by defeats away at Olympiakos Nicosia and at home against Aek Larnaca in the Cypriot domestic league.

That notwithstanding, in Slavia Prague, they believe they may have a beatable opponent.

The Czech side shipped four to Barcelona at home last week, despite taking the lead, and thanks to the Czech Republic’s long domestic winter break, they have not won a competitive game since a 4-3 victory over fellow title challengers Jablonec on December 13.

They remain without a win in the Champions League this season and sit in 34th place in the table.

Kick-off is at 10pm.