California consumer confidence tumbles to 5-year low

California consumers started 2026 on an anxious note, with their collective confidence in the economy falling to a five-year low.

My trusty spreadsheet’s review of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for January showed a 28% decline from December in California’s shopper pysche. It’s a sharp reversal from a steep jump in the index, which is based on consumer surveys, seen between November and December.

Taking a longer-term view, California confidence is down 25% since January 2025, when Donald Trump started his second presidential term. This is the lowest California confidence score since December 2020 – when coronavirus was twisting the economy. Optimism is also 22% below the average results since 2007.

Consumer confidence is a critical part of the business climate, as their spending habits account for roughly two-thirds of economic activity. Pessimistic shoppers may skip or delay various purchases – especially pricey ones like homes or autos.

The Trump administration’s unorthodox, domestically focused economic policies don’t align well with California’s liberal politics or the state’s global business orientation. Meanwhile, conservative Californians aren’t happy with the state government’s management.

At the same time, consumers worry that California’s job growth is slowing to a crawl amid stubbornly elevated inflation.

By the way, California optimism grew by 8% in Trump’s first year of his first White House term, which began in January 2017.

By the slice

Think about the two slices of this confidence index.

California’s “present situation” index, which tracks consumer views of current economic conditions, fell 32% in January and is down 31% over the year.

It’s now at its lowest level since January 2021. This shopper’s view of today’s financial climate is 17% below the index’s 19-year average.

Meanwhile, the “expectations” index, which tracks consumer views of the future, was down 24% for the month and off 20% year over year.

It’s the bleakest outlook since April 2025, as California expectations run 26% below average.

Emotions elsewhere

Nationally, confidence was down 10% for the month and off 20% in Trump’s first year of his second term.

This brought American optimism to its lowest level since May 2014; it’s also 8% below the 19-year average.

In Trump’s first term, U.S. confidence rose 11% in his first year.

Yet, the nation was by no means universally pessimistic in January. Ponder the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board.

Just three states parallel California, with confidence down in January and the past 12 months.

Texas optimism fell 22% for the month and 26% year over year to the lowest level since December 2020.

In New York, optimism dropped 25% for the month and 17% year over year. Confidence is at its lowest since April 2025.

And Ohio optimism is off 1% for the month and 10% over the year.

Two others have muddled trends.

Florida confidence was up 2% for the month but down 13% in a year. Meanwhile, Michigan optimism rose 7% in January but is down 23% in a year.

And shoppers seem buoyant in two states.

Pennsylvania optimism rose 16% in January and 2% in a year, as Illinois confidence rose 6% for the month and 14% in a year.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com