Trump's immigration crackdown in the spotlight ahead of midterms as fatal MN shootings ignite backlash

A second fatal shooting this month by federal agents in Minneapolis is putting President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration crackdown carried out by masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol agents in the spotlight.

The shootings of Renee Good, a mother of three, earlier this month, and nurse Alex Pretti this past weekend, as they protested federal agents carrying out immigration operations, sparked national debate and demonstrations, further inflaming political tensions over Trump's push for the mass deportation of millions of illegal immigrants.

Trump's immigration crackdown turned up the heat on Republican incumbents and candidates on the ballot in this year's midterm elections, forcing them to walk a tightrope as they defend the Trump administration's increasingly unpopular illegal immigration enforcement efforts.

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"I think it’s going to make things more difficult," Amy Koch, a Minnesota-based Republican strategist and former state senator told Fox News Digital. "The images and the energy behind the ICE out movement will definitely play against Republicans."

The two shootings and the massive deployment of ICE and Border Patrol agents to Minneapolis has also deflated coverage of a deepening federal investigation into the sweeping fraud scandal in Minnesota's social services programs.

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The scandal, which spurred Democratic Gov. Tim Walz to drop his re-election bid for a third term, had given Republicans hope of breaking their ballot box losing streak by flipping an open governor's office and Senate seat in November's midterm elections in the blue-leaning state.

"Four weeks ago, I would have told you Republicans were going to do incredibly well statewide in Minnesota, and now I have a lot of questions," said Koch, the first and only woman elected as Minnesota Senate majority leader.

Illegal immigration, along with persistent inflation, was a key issue that boosted Trump and the GOP to decisive ballot box victories in 2024, as they won back the White House and Senate and successfully defended their razor-thin House majority.

But even before the fatal shooting of Pretti, national polls conducted earlier this month spotlighted flagging support for ICE and a deterioration of Trump's approval on immigration.

Among the most recent surveys, a New York Times/Siena Poll conducted Jan. 12–17 and released on Thursday, showed a slight majority approving of the job Trump is doing on the southern border with Mexico and his administration's deportation efforts.

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But the president's overall approval on the issue of immigration was underwater in the poll, with nearly two-thirds disapproving of how ICE was handling their job and 61% saying ICE's tactics had gone too far.

"The approval for Donald Trump on an issue that worked for him, immigration, is down and going down further," University of Minnesota public affairs professor Larry Jacobs told Fox News Digital.

Jacobs said that the "cracking down on illegal immigration, the conduct of ICE has squandered the advantage" in public opinion that Trump once enjoyed.

A veteran Republican strategist told Fox News Digital that "the missteps have turned a plus into either a neutral issue or a net negative at best. People don’t like illegal immigration, but they are also troubled by the tactics that they’re seeing."

And the strategist, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, noted that "the midterms are many times about putting a check on executive power. Best not to give the opposition an issue that they can legitimately argue you should be a check on and that’s what he [Trump] has done here."

Mike Erlandson, a veteran Minnesota-based Democratic strategist and former state Democratic Party chair, said, "I think the president did win on securing the border and even won on removing the worst of the worst from our country."

But he emphasized that "even if people agree that removing the worst of the worst is the right thing to do, that’s not what we’re seeing with the chaos on the streets of Minneapolis.

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On Monday, a Minneapolis lawyer who represented the immigration agent who fatally shot Renee Good ended his Republican bid for Minnesota governor.

"I cannot support the national Republicans’ stated retribution on the citizens of our state," Chris Madel said in a message posted on social media, as he announced he was dropping his outsider bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. "Nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."

Madel said he supported "the originally stated goals of Immigration and Customs Enforcement's Operation Metro Surge in locating and deporting the worst of the worst from our state," but charged that the operation had become "an unmitigated disaster."

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials initially said Pretti, who was legally armed with a handgun, was threatening agents, who they say fired in self-defense. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem labeled the actions of Pretti as "domestic terrorism" and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller called him a "would-be assassin."

But videos of the shooting seem to indicate Pretti was brandishing a cell phone rather than his handgun, with federal agents appearing to secure Pretti's weapon moments before he was shot multiple times.

But two days after the shooting, there was a slightly different tone from the White House, with the president taking to social media to highlight that on Monday he had a "very good call" with Walz, who has been a Trump punching bag dating back to the governor's stint as the Democrats' 2024 vice presidential nominee.

Trump added that he and Walz "actually, seemed to be on a similar wavelength."

Walz, in a statement, said that the president "agreed to look into reducing the number of federal agents in Minnesota" and to allow state and local authorities to investigate Pretti's shooting, which is now in the hands of federal officials.

And hours later, sources told Fox News that some of the Border Patrol agents and their commanding officer would be leaving Minnesota as early as Tuesday.

"Everyone understands the gravity of the situation. It was a very difficult video to watch, and I think the administration understands that a robust and transparent response is needed to ensure public confidence in the agencies, tactics and mission," longtime Republican strategist and communicator Ryan Williams said.

Williams noted that "the situation looks bad," but emphasized that "no one understands optics better than Donald Trump."

Republican Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, pointing to the call between Trump and Walz, said that "we have an opportunity to reset, and I'm encouraged that Gov. Walz and the President are having conversations about where we go from here."

State Rep. Kristin Robbins, one of Demuth's top rivals for the GOP gubernatorial nomination and chair of the state House Fraud Prevention Committee, said, "I’ve been calling on Tim Walz to cooperate with federal officials, and I’m glad he has finally listened."

Minnesota Republicans entered the new year "feeling assured of Republican wins in 2026 because of the fraud issue," Koch said.

But the Good and Pretti shootings pushed Minnesota's fraud scandal off the national radar.

"Republicans had Walz and Democrats on the ropes with what was a massive fraud. That story has disappeared and there’s a question about can it be revived and, if so, will it ever get the kind of visibility as a singular issue that it had," Jacobs said.

Erlandson noted that Trump in recent days has been "trying to put fraud back on the table in Minnesota."

The Republican strategist lamented that because of the shootings, "I think we’ve lost the narrative around that argument, which was a winner for us."

But Koch, pointing to the impact of the shootings on Minnesota Republicans on the ballot later this year, said, "I think we can still recover because it’s early...it’s a long way away from November."