Grammy Award 2026 predictions: Will Kendrick, Bad Bunny or Gaga win big?

It might be a case of déjà vu all over again at the 2026 Grammy Awards.

Kendrick Lamar, who absolutely owned the 2025 Grammys, could once again dominate when the latest edition of “Music’s Biggest Night” goes down Feb. 1 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

The hip-hop superstar won all five of the categories in which he was nominated last year — including two of the Grammys’ so-called “Big Four” general field awards — and he almost certainly will add to that tally this time around.

After all, he does lead the field with an impressive nine nominations in 2026.

So, will that be the script? Lamar crushes the competition? Or are there a couple of twists — as well as upsets — in the cards?

It’s definitely going to be a fun night, with plenty of top names battling it out, including such multi-nominated talents as Lady Gaga, Bad Bunny, Sabrina Carpenter and Tyler, the Creator – battling it out.

Here are our predictions for who will win the Big Four categories — album, song and record of the year as well as best new artist — at the 2026 Grammys.

Tune in to see if they come true when the Grammys are aired live at 5 p.m. on CBS-TV and Parmount +.

Record of the Year

The nominees: “DtMF,” Bad Bunny; “Manchild,” Sabrina Carpenter; “Anxiety,” Doechii; “Wildflower,” Billie Eilish; “Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga; “Luther,” Kendrick Lamar with SZA; “The Subway,” Chappell Roan; “APT.,” Rosé and Bruno Mars

The skinny: Our favorite of the bunch is “Manchild,” which is yet another slice of pop goodness from former Disney Channel star Carpenter. It’s exactly the type of shiny, upbeat tune we loved to turn to when we needed a little attitude adjustment in 2025. Yet, that sunshiny aspect might actually work against it and send voters toward something with a little more weight.

Eilish is a big Grammy favorite, with a zillion trophies already on her shelf, but — come on — enough is enough. Give it to somebody else — like, well, Chappell Roan, who does such nice job on “The Subway,” or Doechii with the memorable “Anxiety.”

A win for “APT.” would give Mars four victories for record of the year — and make him the category’s all-time winningest artist. We’re betting against that happening and that Mars will remained tied with Paul Simon.

We’re Bad Bunny fans, for sure, but “DtMF” — despite garnering well over a billion (!) spins on Spotify alone — isn’t one of our favorites from his catalog.

It’s ridiculous to think that Gaga has never won any of the Big Four categories. But that streak has a decent chance of ending with the likeable “Abracadabra.”

Standing in its way, however, is the formidable “Luther,” which features two of the top talents on the planet — Lamar and SZA — and doubles as a tribute to the legendary Luther Vandross.

Who will win: The pairing of Lamar and SZA just seems too potent for any of the other acts to pull the upset here. So, “Luther” by a landslide — making it two consecutive record of the year triumphs for Lamar.

Possible upset: Gaga’s lack of success in these Big Four categories, combined with a career’s worth of hits, could sway some sentiment in the direction of “Abracadabra.”

Song of the Year

(Award given to songwriters.)

Nominees: “Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga, Henry Walter and Andrew Watt (Lady Gaga); “Anxiety,” Jaylah Hickmon (performed by Doechii); “APT.,” Amy Allen, Christopher Brody Brown, Rogét Chahayed, Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Chae Young Park, Theron Thomas and Henry Walter (performed by Rosé and Bruno Mars); “DtMF,” Marco Daniel Borrero, Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, Hugo René Sención Sanabria, Tyler Spry and Roberto José Rosado Torres (performed by Bad Bunny); “Golden,” Ejae, Park Hong Jun, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Mark Sonnenblick (performed by Huntrix, from “KPop Demon Hunters,” aka Ejae, Audrey Nuna and Rei Ami); “Luther,” Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Ink, Kendrick Lamar, Solána Rowe, Mark Anthony Spears and Kamasi Washington (performed by Kendrick Lamar with SZA); “Manchild,” Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter (performed by Sabrina Carpenter); “Wildflower,” Billie Eilish O’Connell and  Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish).

The skinny: If the terrific “Manchild” can’t win in the record of the year race then it really has no shot here. Too bad. We have similar concerns about “Abracadabra,” which is a dance track that really improves as you turn it up.

We applaud the inclusion of K-pop with “Demon Hunters” soundtrack number “Golden” and with Rosé — who rose to fame as a member of Blackpink — on the Mars collaboration “APT.” Yet, we don’t see voters taking it to the next level with either of these tracks.

“DtMF” has got a cool vibe to it, and a nice nostalgic storyline, but it’s not as groovy as at least half of the other nominees here.

Eilish and brother Finneas are even more of a threat here than in the record of the year realm. But, again, enough is enough — at least for now.

“Anxiety” is a gem, nicely showcasing the songwriting talents of rising hip-hop star Doechii. Yet, it’s got a very established hip-hop star — as well as one of the best R&B/soul vocalists in the business — standing in the way of it and Grammy gold.

Who will win: History definitely should repeat here, with Lamar following up his song of the year trophy in 2025 with another in 2026.

Possible upset: It doesn’t feel like anybody is really that close. But, if forced to pick, we’ll go with “Abracadabra” with the thought that voters could want to finally give Gaga one of the Big Four trophies.

Best New Artist

Nominees: Olivia Dean, KATSEYE, The Marias, Addison Rae, sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren, Lola Young

The skinny: There is so much talent on display in this category, ranging from English/Spanish indie-pop (The Marias) and retro soul (Thomas) to TikTok-approved folk-pop (Warren).

And many — if not all — appear to have what it takes to have long careers in the music industry.

Still, it really feels like this boils down to a two-way race between Thomas and Dean.

Judging by the usual indicators — most important of which being the number of other Grammy nominations that each artist has — Thomas would appear to be the safe bet. After all, he leads 6-1 over Dean in that regard, with one of those nods being in yet another Big Four category (album of the year).

Ah, but appearances can be deceiving. And Dean has really come on strong in recent months, well after the eligibility period for Grammy nominations ended, and has transformed into one of the hottest stars on the planet. That surely did not go unnoticed by voters as they cast their final ballots.

Who will win: Dean, solidifying her place in the upper echelon of the pop star stratosphere and further signaling that 2026 is this U.K. soul-pop artist’s year.

Possible upset: We won’t say Thomas, because that really wouldn’t be much of an upset at all. So, let’s go with Young, a Londoner with a memorable voice and a knack for crafting edgy alt-pop music that stands out from the crowd.

Album of the Year

Nominees: “Debí Tirar Más Fotos,” Bad Bunny; “Swag,” Justin Bieber; “Man’s Best Friend,” Sabrina Carpenter; “Let God Sort Em Out,” Clipse; “Mayhem,” Lady Gaga; “GNX,” Kendrick Lamar; “Mutt,” Leon Thomas; “Chromakopia,” Tyler, the Creator

The skinny: This category — routinely recognized as “The Big Award” — features the best hip-hop album of 2024 (“GNX”) up against the finest one from 2025 (“Let God Sort Em Out”).

Yet, the former also happened to be the greatest hip-hop album of the decade thus far as well certainly one of the most significant platters of the overall millennium.

The biggest thing standing in its way, however, could be voters who believe Lamar was already aptly (and recently) rewarded for his stunning brilliance with his Grammy sweep last year.

There’s also one more hip-hip album in the mix – “Chromakopia” – but, really, it’s only so-so. Popular, yes. Great, no.

“Mutt” is a better album than Tyler’s, for sure, but new artist nominee Thomas can’t really compete on this level — yet. We also really dig “Man’s Best Friend” — and Carpenter, in general — but, if we’re honest, it’s not quite as good as the star’s last album.

And plenty of people listened to “Swag,” even though we’re not exactly sure why.

No, if a mainstream English-language pop album is going to win the title in 2026 then it’s going to “Mayhem.” The overall album is better than the single “Abracadabra,” which we believe gives Gaga a better chance at winning this category than song/record of the year.

And that brings us to “Debí Tirar Más Fotos,” a very worthy offering from Bad Bunny that, in our opinion, poses the greatest competition to Lamar’s “GNX” in this category.

As has been well-documented, an all-Spanish album has never taken this title, which is something that members of the Latin Recording Academy — who were reportedly invited to vote for this year’s Grammy Awards — would surely love to change.

That’s one of many things working in the favor of the overall very solid “Debí Tirar Más Fotos.” Another thing is the Trump factor, which impacts, well, basically everything. And a vote for Bad Bunny would be seen by many as a vote against Donald Trump, the ICE agenda and the president’s stance that this Puerto Rican talent — who ranks as one of the world’s most popular music stars — shouldn’t be playing the Super Bowl Halftime Show.

If Bad Bunny wins this award – one week before the Super Bowl is played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara — Crypto.com Arena is going to absolutely erupt in applause.

Who will win: The two-way race between Bad Bunny and Lamar is almost too close to call in our mind. But, forced to pick, we can see the Trump factor swaying the vote just enough to make “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” becomes the first all-Spanish language outing to win album of the year.

Possible upset: Gaga could finally lock down a Big Four win with “Mayhem.”