Iran regime reportedly issued nationwide shoot-to-kill orders as protest death toll surges
More and more brutal evidence of the Iranian regime’s crackdown on its own people is circulating online, as the true number of those killed in Iran’s protests remains hotly contested amid internet blackouts and state intimidation. Estimates range from the thousands confirmed dead to the tens of thousands feared killed, according to activists, media reports and medical data.
Fatemeh Jamalpour, an Iranian journalist who has covered every major protest movement over the past two decades, said the latest crackdown represents a turning point in the regime’s use of force. "The regime’s level of violence has increased dramatically, and with the internet crackdown, it is difficult to know the true scale of the killing."
"The new thing I have seen in these protests, something we have not seen before, is that starting on the night of January 8, the regime issued shoot-to-kill orders to the IRGC, the Basij and the riot police, authorizing direct fire," Jamalpour told Fox News Digital.
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"In previous protests, military-grade weapons were used mainly in minority provinces such as Kurdistan and Baluchestan," she added. "This time they were used across the entire country… Health Ministry officials told us they ran out-of-body bags for the dead."
The most widely cited baseline comes from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, or HRANA, a U.S.-based group that tracks deaths by name and location.
As of January 25, HRANA reported 5,848 people confirmed killed. Of these, 5,520 were protesters, 77 were children under 18, 209 were government-affiliated forces and 42 were non-protesters or civilians. The number of deaths still under investigation stands at 17,091.
The group has emphasized that its confirmed tally reflects only cases that could be independently documented, and that its overall figures are expected to rise as information continues to emerge.
According to The Associated Press, Iranian authorities have offered only one official count, 3,117, and have not updated it publicly in the last five days. Authorities have not released names, locations, or documentation to support that figure.
Beyond human rights tallies, a separate medical working paper reviewed by Fox News Digital suggests the death toll may be far higher.
The report by Munich Med Group, authored by professor Dr. Amir-Mobarez Parasta, compiles hospital-registered fatalities from multiple Iranian cities and applies what the author describes as a conservative extrapolation model to account for underreporting during the communications blackout.
Using that methodology, the paper estimates a nationwide death toll of approximately 33,130 people as of January 23. The author stresses the figure is not a verified count, but a lower-bound estimate based on partial medical data and stated assumptions.
Iran International published its own investigation, claiming it reviewed documents indicating that more than 36,500 people were killed during two days of protests on January 8 and 9 alone. The outlet said the documents were provided by sources inside Iran, but the claims have not been independently verified.
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The wide gap between confirmed counts and higher estimates reflects not only the scale of violence, but also the conditions under which it occurred.
According to Jamalpour, despite the internet shutdown, doctors and medical workers attempted to document what they were seeing using limited satellite connections.
"Many doctors and medical staff tried to send us their accounts and documentation through small Starlink connections," she said. "Medical workers say protesters were often shot in the head and neck, with intent to kill. Many were killed by multiple bullets. Some were shot from behind while trying to flee."
Jamalpour said the victims she documented reflected a generation the regime appeared determined to crush. "Among the dead are children and a 67-year-old man, but most are young people under 30," she said.
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Jamalpour described the killing of Mehdi Khanmohammadi, a 67-year-old retired army colonel and pilot. "He was killed on Friday, January 9, in Saadat Abad by two bullets," she said. "In a video, his daughter stands over his lifeless body and says, ‘Can you open your eyes and wake up?’"
She said scenes like that have left the country in collective mourning. "These days, Iranians are in shock," Jamalpour said. "There is grief everywhere."
At the same time, she warned that the crackdown is far from over. "Lawyers and human rights organizations are deeply concerned about more than 20,000 protesters who have been detained and are at risk of execution," she said.
Yet even amid the fear, Jamalpour said she hears something new inside Iran. "In my conversations from inside the country, I hear people’s hope for Trump’s help in freeing Iran," she said. "And a determination to change the regime, now intertwined with anger and grief."