Odds of a government shutdown skyrocket on Polymarket and Kalshi in wake of ICE shooting in Minnesota

• Odds of a government shutdown rose from roughly 10% to the high 70s on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Democrats are vowing to oppose a bill to fund the agency until reforms are made to immigration enforcement.
• That's imperiling a broader package of bills to fund the government.

Just days ago, it looked like the US would avoid a repeat of the government shutdown that took place in the fall.

Then, federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.

In the span of just a few hours following the shooting on Saturday, the odds that the government will shut down later this week rose from roughly 10% to the high 70s on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

That's because Democratic senators now say they won't vote to fund the Department of Homeland Security, or DHS — the department that oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol — until reforms to immigration enforcement are made.

"What's happening in Minnesota is appalling —and unacceptable in any American city," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement on Saturday. "Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included."

Why a shutdown is extremely likely

There are only two ways out of this:

• Democratic senators suddenly reverse their position;
• Lawmakers work together to break up a group of six government funding bills set to get a vote in the Senate later this week.

But even if lawmakers go with the second option, a short shutdown through the weekend is likely.

To avoid a government shutdown after midnight late Friday evening, the Senate would need to pass the six-bill package, which funds DHS, the military, various government agencies, and a wide array of federal grants, among other things.

Those six bills have already passed the House, and they've been stitched together into one larger package in the Senate.

The GOP may control the upper chamber, but they can't ignore Democrats. Due to the Senate's 60-vote "filibuster" rule, and the fact that Republicans hold just 53 seats, Democratic votes are necessary to advance most major bills, including this one.

Democrats are only opposed to the DHS bill, and Schumer has called on Republicans to work with Democrats to separate out the bills. But the GOP has balked so far at that idea.

Furthermore, even if the bills are separated, the House would have to vote on them again to send them to President Donald Trump's desk.

The House is out of session until next week, meaning a shutdown at least until then is highly likely.

This shutdown wouldn't be as bad as the last one

Just months ago, the federal government shut down for 43 days, the longest shutdown in American history. There are a few reasons why this one wouldn't be as bad.

For one, it would only be a partial shutdown, because lawmakers have already passed several bills to fund the government through September 30.

SNAP and WIC payments would be unaffected, Capitol Hill staffers would still get paid, and national parks would likely remain open.

Additionally, the path out of a shutdown is more straightforward.

In the fall, Democrats were demanding changes to healthcare while holding all of government funding back. This time, Democrats are only objecting to the DHS funding.

That means it's plausible that the Senate would separate out the other five bills, the House would re-pass those bills next week, and the partial shutdown would only last a few days.

ICE still gets funded either way

Still, the DHS bill doesn't just fund ICE and border patrol. It also funds the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

That raises the possibility of delays at airports and issues with disaster aid if the department goes unfunded for a long period of time.

Additionally, ICE will remain funded, even if the DHS bill doesn't pass for a long time.

While the current DHS funding bill contains an additional $10 billion for ICE, the agency also received roughly $75 billion in funding via the "Big Beautiful Bill" in July.

Unless lawmakers were to agree to rescind that funding — extremely unlikely given GOP control of Congress — that money's here to stay.