Grocery Spending Moves Online as Affordability Concerns Rise

While grocery prices are often used as shorthand for inflation, grocery baskets themselves have not changed dramatically in size or composition. Instead, PYMNTS Intelligence finds that financial stress is creating a bifurcation in grocery shopping behavior, particularly in the shift toward online channels.

Consumers under high financial stress are 6 percentage points more likely to purchase groceries online than those under low stress. This pattern does not reflect a general surge in online shopping, but a targeted move toward grocery purchases that offer more visibility into prices, discounts and budgets.

Groceries Remain an Essential

The report, titled, “The New Checkout: Crimped Consumers Lean Into Online Retail and Digital Wallets,” underscores that grocery spending remains non-negotiable, even as households face rising costs elsewhere.

Seventeen percent of consumers reported experiencing cash shortfalls for essential expenses in the past 90 days, defining the high financial stress cohort. That stress is concentrated among younger generations and parents with children, groups that must continue buying groceries regardless of budget pressure.

Rather than cutting back sharply, stressed households adapt. One way is by consolidating grocery purchases into fewer, higher-value transactions.

Online and In-Store Behaviors Diverge

Consumers under high financial stress spent an average of $109 on their most recent grocery purchase, compared to $95 among low-stress shoppers. This result suggests fewer trips and more deliberate planning, not looser spending discipline.

Digital channels amplify this behavior. Financially stressed shoppers appear to favor online grocery purchases for the control they offer, including easier price comparisons and access to promotions. In-store grocery shopping still plays a role, but the growth momentum is clearly digital for this group.

As for the form factor, the data show that high financial stress households are far more likely to use digital wallets. They are more than twice as likely as low-stress individuals to have used the payment method for their last grocery purchase at a respective 21% versus 8%.

Financial Stress Shapes Where Groceries Are Bought

Merchant choice further highlights how financial pressure redirects grocery spending. Walmart dominates grocery purchases among high-stress consumers, accounting for 56% of their most recent online grocery purchases, compared to 50% among low-stress shoppers. The pattern holds in physical stores as well, where 37% of high-stress consumers last shopped for groceries at Walmart, versus 26% of low-stress consumers.

Dollar stores also benefit. Financially stressed, in-store shoppers are more likely than low-stress consumers to buy groceries from Dollar Tree, reinforcing the appeal of value-focused formats for essentials.

Platforms Tell a More Nuanced Story

Platform behavior diverges sharply by stress level.

High-stress consumers are 34% less likely to buy from Amazon than low-stress shoppers, while being nearly three times as likely to shop at Target online. The data suggest that financially stressed shoppers prioritize perceived value and targeted promotions, while lower-stress households use Amazon more for discretionary grocery and retail items.

What Grocery Spending Signals for Commerce

For the retailers, grocery spending has become a diagnostic tool. Financial stress does not eliminate demand, but it does change channels, baskets and merchants. Online grocery shopping, especially among stressed households, reflects a broader shift toward deliberate spending, consolidation and value orientation.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.