AFC Championship Game: Patriots-Broncos Preview, Props, Prediction
The Denver Broncos claimed the No. 1 seed in the conference but enter Sunday's AFC Championship Game as more than a field goal underdog at home following the season-ending ankle injury suffered by quarterback Bo Nix.
The Broncos (15-3) will turn to veteran backup Jarrett Stidham against the visiting New England Patriots (16-3), who have already earned convincing postseason wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans.
ODDS AND TRENDS
New England is a consensus 4.0-point favorite, with the line reaching 4.5 at DraftKings and BetMGM. The Patriots have been backed by 65% of the spread-line bets and 58% of the money wagered at the latter.
However, the Broncos' +200 moneyline has drawn 71% of the total bets while the Patriots have been backed by 72% of the ML handle.
The total points line opened at 40.5 but has steadily climbed to 42.5 with the Over heavily backed by 91% of the money.
PROP PICKS
--Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson 47.5+ Rushing Yards (-140 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular player prop for the AFC Championship Game at the book. The Broncos finished the regular season with the league's No. 2-ranked run defense, but surrendered 183 yards on the ground to Buffalo last week. That included 117 yards by running back James Cook. Stevenson shares the Patriots' backfield with rookie TreVeyon Henderson, but managed 70 yards on 16 carries against Houston last week after compiling 53 on 10 carries against the Chargers.
--Stidham 200+ Passing Yards (-124 at DraftKings): Stidham has not attempted a pass outside of the preseason since 2023. New England will no doubt stack the box against the run and force Stidham to beat them. It's a tall task for the 29-year-old but will also open some opportunities to push the ball vertically, especially if the Broncos are playing from behind.
INSIDE EDGE
Expect Stidham to lean heavily on his running backs in the passing game as well. Denver's backs tied for fourth in the NFL with five touchdown receptions during the regular season according to Inside Edge's Remarkable Engine -- all by rookie RJ Harvey and all coming in the fourth quarter.
STIDHAM TO THE RESCUE?
Nix piloted the Broncos back to the playoffs for the second time in his two NFL seasons and Denver held the No. 1 seed with home-field advantage. He called the injury "the most devastating football news I've ever received" but is working to help Stidham, 29, prepare for his fifth career start and the Broncos to go win the next one.
"He's still a good quarterback," Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez said. "He can make a lot of throws. We've seen what he's done when he's been in games. He's in the NFL for a reason."
Vrabel was playing linebacker with New England when a backup named Tom Brady emerged to lead the Patriots to victories in Super Bowl XXXVI (2002), XXXVIII (2004) and XXXIX (2005). And there's no need for the Broncos to issue a book on Stidham to the Patriots. They can get it from one of their coaches first-hand.
Stidham started his career as Brady's backup in 2019 as a fourth-round pick under Bill Belichick and spent three seasons in New England as part of meetings facilitated by Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels -- previously head coach of the Broncos from 2009-10.
Stidham was acquired from the Patriots by the Raiders in a trade after Las Vegas hired McDaniels in 2022. He signed with the Broncos as a free agent in 2023. When the Broncos drafted Nix, head coach Sean Payton had already signed Stidham based on what he knew about his experiences with McDaniels. Stidham expected to compete and become the starter and declared he would again be "a starter in this league."
Now is the time.
"Ultimately, it's our three years here and our three years watching him day in and day out that you guys don't have access to," Payton said of his foundation of belief in Stidham winning on this massive stage. "He will be ready to go and ready for the moment."
With zero pass attempts and only four total snaps this season, Stidham is living a zero-to-60 moment. He has heard from many predictable voices and some unexpected ones this week.
The names of Nick Foles, who beat the Patriots in relief of regular-season starter Carson Wentz to give the Eagles a Lombardi Trophy in the 2017 season, and Jeff Hostetler are again making the rounds. In 1990, Hostetler tagged in when Phil Simms was injured with two games left in the regular season. Hostetler won three playoff games and Super Bowl XXV for the New York Giants.
Those Giants also ranked No. 1 in total defense, allowed over 20 points twice in 16 regular-season games and had All-Pro linebackers Lawrence Taylor and Pepper Johnson to fall back on.
Which could well be precisely Payton's point of emphasis this week.
Payton wasn't yet with Bill Parcells and the Giants in '90, but he's an undeniable part of the same coaching tree with ample roots in the inclination to find ways to make quarterbacks uncomfortable.
The Patriots thrived with that approach last week, intercepting Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud four times in the first half.
"We talk all the time, when a quarterback gets hit, bad things happen," Vrabel said.
Payton said he talked to Parcells this week -- and they're in touch regularly -- about the predicament. He's relatively at ease with Stidham given the performance of an offensive line anchored by right guard Quinn Meinerz and left tackle Garett Bolles.
DEPENDING ON 'D'
Maye was sacked 47 times in the regular season and 10 more in two playoff games. Getting heat to the pocket is already a strength of the Broncos. Denver has four players with 7.0 or more sacks. The Broncos led the NFL in sacks with 68 in 2025 and got to Josh Allen three times last week.
"(Maye is) fast. He can run. We had that challenge a week ago," said Payton, who can tie Parcells and others on the NFL all-time list with his 11th playoff win on Sunday.
There are numerous mines for Maye to avoid in the Denver defense.
Outside linebackers Nik Bonitto -- fifth in the NFL with 14 sacks this season -- and Jonathon Cooper (8.0 sacks) are backed by lockdown cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. They could be sensing blood in the water after Maye had five turnovers in the first two playoff games.
"We have to be able to not get careless with the football. We can't be reckless," Vrabel said. "A lot of it is operation. We had two turnovers with not everyone on the same page."
Maye might not win the NFL MVP award given the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford's 46-TD season, but he put himself in the running by excelling in pressure situations. He led the NFL with an average of 9.4 yards per pass attempt when pressured and was second in the league with a completion percentage of 57% in those situations.
New England ranked second in the regular season in points per game (28.2) and third in total offense (379.4 yards per game). Both teams were in the top 10 in total defense -- Denver was No. 2 (287.2 ypg) and New England allowed 295.2. The Broncos (second at 91.1 yards per game) and Patriots (101.7) were also in the top six stopping the run.
This is Maye's first-ever trip to Colorado. But his mentality outside of New England has been on point. Every time the Patriots packed for a road game this season, they brought home a victory.
"The magnitude of the noise is something we probably haven't seen yet," Maye said of going to Denver. "Playing on the road is one of the coolest things. Coming off the field with their screaming fans, coming out with a win. It's pretty cool to celebrate in an away locker room, that's different. Coach is always saying 'road warriors' and we're trying to find that one more time."
SERIES HISTORY
The Broncos beat the Patriots in the 2015 season's AFC Championship game in Denver and hold a 4-1 advantage in the all-time postseason series. New England is 11-4 all-time in the AFC Championship and the Patriots' 11 Super Bowl berths are the most in NFL history.
Vrabel can become the seventh head coach to lead the team he played for to a Super Bowl berth. He can become the eighth head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl in his first season with the team.
INJURY REPORT
Unfortunately for the Broncos, their backfield won't get the boost they hoped to receive from running back J.K. Dobbins. The team's leading rusher with 772 yards, Dobbins will remain out due to a foot injury. He went through position drills Wednesday in his first practice since Nov. 4 but was ruled out for the AFC title game two days later.
In addition to Nix and Dobbins, the Broncos ruled out linebacker Drew Sanders (ankle) and tight end Lucas Krull (foot).
Denver wide receiver Pat Bryant, who saw limited action last week against Buffalo due to a concussion, was a full practice participant on Thursday and Friday. He should be set to play on Sunday.
Broncos center Luke Wattenberg (shoulder), center Alex Forsyth (ankle), wide receiver Troy Franklin (hamstring) and safety JL Skinner (quad) are all considered questionable.
The Patriots will be without linebacker Harold Landry III (knee). Running back Terrell Jennings (out of concussion protocol), wide receiver Mack Hollins (abdomen), defensive lineman Joshua Farmer (hamstring) and linebacker Marte Mapu (hip) are all questionable.
THEY SAID IT
"It was one of those things, quick transition, you are sad and then you realize you still have a job to go out there and do. Jarrett is qualified. He's a very talented guy in terms of football IQ, football ability." --Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton
PREDICTION
The offensive fireworks might be muted with the Broncos turning to a backup QB and the Patriots relying on more of a high-percentage passing game against Denver's strong defense. As long as Maye avoids multiple turnovers, it's hard to see Denver mounting enough offense against a New England defense that finished the regular season second in allowing an average of only 224.0 total yards per game. --Patriots 23, Broncos 16