Davos 2026: Data Confirms Trump’s Economic Claims as the U.S. Outperforms Europe

 

In his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump criticized Europe for losing its way and outlined how well the U.S. economy is doing during his second term. Below is a list of 29 claims he made, along with verification and explanation. Overall, Trump is right, and the claims he made are largely true, although some need additional explanation and nuance.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PERFORMANCE
CLAIM 1: Core inflation at 1.6 percent over the past three months

BLS December 2025 CPI data shows core inflation at 2.6 percent on a year over year basis. Trump’s 1.6 percent figure refers not to the annual rate but to the most recent three month trend. When core inflation from October, November, and December 2025 is annualized, it comes out to roughly 1.6 percent.

In other words, the 2.6 percent figure reflects inflation over the full past year, while the 1.6 percent figure captures the current trajectory. Both numbers are accurate, but they describe different time frames.

CLAIM 2: Fourth-quarter growth projected at 5.4 percent

This claim is supported by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which projected Q4 2025 real GDP growth at 5.4 percent as of January 22, 2026.

CLAIM 3: Stock market set multiple all-time highs in one year

This claim is accurate. The S&P 500 reached multiple record highs in 2025 and finished the year up approximately 17 to 18 percent.

CLAIM 4: Adding $9 trillion in value to retirement accounts and savings

With the S&P 500 up roughly 17 to 18 percent in 2025, a $9 trillion increase in retirement and savings account values is mathematically plausible given total U.S. market capitalization.

CLAIM 5: 1.2 million people lifted off food stamps since inauguration

The figure refers to 1.2 million households, equivalent to roughly 4 million individuals no longer receiving SNAP benefits.

CLAIM 6: Secured commitments for $18 trillion to $20 trillion in new investment

This claim is accurate. When foreign direct investment and broader investment commitments are combined, total pledged inflows reach approximately $18 to $20 trillion. Some commitments include trade components, which has led to media disputes, but when all agreements are counted, the total reflects new capital expected to flow into the United States over the coming years as a result of Trump-era deals with partners and allies.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND EMPLOYMENT REDUCTIONS
CLAIM 7: Removed over 270,000 bureaucrats from federal payrolls, largest single-year cut since WWII

Verified. NPR and OPM Director Scott Kupor confirmed roughly 317,000 federal employees exiting by the end of 2025, making the 270,000 figure conservative.

CLAIM 8: Cut federal spending by $100 billion

Verified by Cato. Announced cuts total at least $100 billion, driven by federal workforce reductions and benefit cuts, contributing to a 27 percent deficit reduction.

CLAIM 9: Cut 129 regulations for every one new regulation

The ratio is rhetorical, but Trump has sharply reduced regulations to lower costs and encourage private-sector investment.

TAX POLICY
CLAIM 10: Passed the largest tax cuts in American history

While likely smaller than the 1981 Reagan tax cuts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act extends key TCJA provisions, cuts taxes on tips and overtime, and is projected to reduce revenue by roughly $5 trillion from 2025 to 2034, fulfilling a core campaign promise.

CLAIM 11: 100 percent expensing and bonus depreciation for new capital investments

Correct. Originally enacted under the 2017 TCJA, 100 percent bonus depreciation was extended or expanded by Trump in 2025.

TRADE AND TARIFFS

CLAIM 12: Slashed monthly trade deficit by 77 percent in one year with no inflation

BEA and Census data show the trade deficit hit a 16-year low in October 2025, though this reflects a single month and may not represent a sustained trend.

CLAIM 13: American exports up by more than $150 billion

Exports increased compared to the same period in 2024. Census and BEA data show the goods and services deficit fell to $29.4 billion in October, down from $48.1 billion in September, indicating rising exports, though the full $150 billion figure reflects cumulative gains rather than a single-month change.

CLAIM 14: Made historic trade deals covering 40 percent of U.S. trade

The 40 percent figure is difficult to verify, but Trump secured major trade agreements, including a record deal with the EU, covering a substantial share of U.S. trade.

MANUFACTURING AND PRODUCTION
CLAIM 15: Domestic steel production up by 300,000 tons per month

AISI data shows year-over-year gains close to this level. January 2026 production averaged about 1.756 million net tons per week versus 1.7 million a year earlier, implying roughly 240,000 tons per month. In late 2025, output increases in high-demand months approached or exceeded 300,000 tons as new electric arc furnaces reached full capacity.

CLAIM 16: Factory construction up by 41 percent

Plausible. Census data shows manufacturing construction spending at a record annualized rate above $230 billion in 2024–2025, more than double 2021 levels, making a 41 percent increase credible depending on the comparison period.

CLAIM 17: Steel plants being built all over the country

Largely accurate. The U.S. is experiencing a steel expansion, with new plants and projects spread beyond the Rust Belt into the South and West. As of January 2026, major steel facilities are under construction or recently completed across multiple states.

CLAIM 18: More car plants being built than ever before

Partly true. By investment value, current auto plant construction exceeds the 1940s and 1950s, driven largely by EV manufacturing. The number of distinct plants may be lower than mid-century levels, but modern facilities are far larger and more capital intensive.

ENERGY
CLAIM 19: U.S. natural gas production at an all-time high

EIA data shows record dry gas output in 2025 at about 107.4 Bcf/d, with 2026 production projected to rise further to roughly 108.8 Bcf/d.

CLAIM 20: U.S. oil production up by 730,000 barrels per day

Mostly accurate. EIA data shows U.S. output rose from about 13.2 million b/d in 2024 to roughly 13.6 million b/d in 2025, a gain of about 400,000 b/d year over year. The 730,000 figure reflects cumulative growth from late 2023 through late 2025, when production peaked near 13.9 million b/d.

CLAIM 21: Gasoline prices below $2.50 nationally, with some states under $2.00

Verified. Prices in many states are below $2.50 per gallon, with some markets reporting $1.95–$1.99.

PRESCRIPTION DRUG PRICING
CLAIM 22: Most-favored nation policy cutting drug prices by up to 90 percent

The 90 percent figure reflects the gap between U.S. list prices and MFN prices paid by peer countries. Under TrumpRx.gov, some cash-pay drugs, including insulin and inhalers, have seen real-world price cuts of roughly 60 to 70 percent.

INCOME AND HOUSING
CLAIM 23: Real incomes up by $2,000 to $5,000 since Biden administration

Verified. BLS data confirms real income gains within this range.

CLAIM 24: Average 30-year mortgage rate fell below 6 percent

Verified. On January 22, 2026, major trackers including Zillow reported the average 30-year mortgage rate at 5.99 percent.

CLAIM 25: Executive order banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes

Verified. On January 20, 2026, President Trump signed an executive order titled “Stopping Wall Street from Competing with Main Street Homebuyers,” targeting large institutional buyers outbidding families for starter homes.

IMMIGRATION IMPACT ON WELFARE AND HOUSING
CLAIM 26: Fewer than 2 million homes built in 2024 while over 8 million illegal aliens were admitted under Biden

Largely accurate. Census and NAHB data show 2024 housing starts at about 1.36 million and completions around 1.5 to 1.6 million, well below 2 million. The roughly 8 million figure reflects cumulative illegal immigration under the Biden administration.

CLAIM 27: 2025 marked the first reverse migration in 50 years

Verified. DHS reported over 2.5 million illegal aliens leaving the U.S. in 2025, including more than 605,000 deportations and 1.9 million voluntary self-departures. Southwest border apprehensions fell to 237,538, the lowest level since 1970, resulting in net negative migration.

CLAIM 28: Cutting illegal aliens off welfare and government benefits

The administration ended federally subsidized benefits accessed through parole and state workarounds, halted federal matching funds for state programs covering illegal alien adults, revived and expanded the public charge rule, and restricted benefit access for lawfully present non-citizens under the OBBBA. Federal reimbursement for emergency care for illegal aliens is also set to be sharply reduced starting October 1, 2026.

INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
CLAIM 29: Car plants moving back from Canada, Mexico, Japan, and China to avoid tariffs

Verified. The 25 percent auto tariffs imposed in April 2025 triggered major reshoring moves as automakers shifted production to avoid duties that add thousands to vehicle prices. GM alone announced a shift from Mexico adding roughly 300,000 vehicles per year to U.S. capacity and 3,000 to 4,000 jobs. The outward flow of auto manufacturing has reversed, with Kansas, Tennessee, and Michigan among the main beneficiaries.

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