A Deep Dive Into Newest Mets Starter Freddy Peralta

At the press conference for Bo Bichette on January 21, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns reiterated that adding a top-of-the-rotation starter was still the Mets’ preference, as it had been all offseason. Later that night, Stearns got to celebrate his wedding anniversary in style, as the Mets acquired Freddy Peralta alongside Tobias Myers from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat.

Who Is Freddy Peralta?

Stearns is very familiar with Peralta. One of his first moves as the Brewers general manager was to acquire him from the Seattle Mariners as part of a package for Adam Lind in 2015, and he extended him a few years later in 2020.

In 2025, Peralta threw a career-high 176 2/3 innings and recorded a career-best 2.70 ERA. He placed near the top of the league in zone contact, hard hit rate, exit velocity, strikeout rate, whiff rate, and extension.

Peralta throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His slider generated the highest whiff rate at 53.4%, while his changeup generated the highest chase rate at 34.4%. His four-seam fastball is his only pitch thrown in the zone more than half the time at 51.9%. At a run value of plus-9 per Baseball Savant, his fastball ranked in the top 15.2% of baseball last year and tied with his changeup as his best pitch in terms of run value. From his 38-degree arm angle, he throws his four-seam with 16.8 inches of iBV and a -4.1 VAA.

Prior to 2025, Peralta’s slider was his second-most used pitch, throwing it 21.8% of the time in 2023 and 21.6% of the time in 2024. In 2025, he only used it 9.4% of the time, but it was even more of a weapon than in past years. He increased his velocity on that offering by 2.2 mph to 83.7, which led to a spin rate jump from 2,345 RPM to 2,453. This also led his whiff rate on that pitch to spike from 41% to 53.4%. His changeup became his new second-most used pitch as a result. He threw it 21.2% of the time and generated a 34.4% chase rate and 34.9% whiff rate with it. His changeup comes in at an average of 88.9 mph with 16.8 inches of horizontal break, and it is thrown in the zone just 35.6% of the time.

Is Peralta an Ace?

This likely largely depends on your definition of an “ace”. Is he a top-five pitcher in the game? No. Would you pencil him in as a guy who would be expected to have a sub-3 ERA again next year? No. Is he someone you should be comfortable leading your pitching staff and starting in Game One of a playoff series? Absolutely.

Over the last three seasons, this is where Peralta ranks among 94 qualified starting pitchers in the following categories:

• 7th in AVG Against (.208)
• 11th in K% (28.9%)
• 15th in innings pitched (516)
• 16th in Hard Hit Rate (36.3%)
• 19th in ERA (3.40)
• 24th in WHIP (1.14)
• 37th in FIP (3.88)
• 82nd in BB% (8.8%)

Peralta has been around one of the 20 best pitchers in baseball for the past three seasons. OOPSY, which uses Statcast data as its base, projects Peralta to post a 3.51 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP this upcoming season. OOPSY began as the projection system for The Athletic and has been one of the most accurate projection systems for pitchers the last three years. It’s the highest of the projection systems on Peralta and predicts that he’ll be the 28th-best starter by ERA, tying him with Blake Snell and Framber Valdez. By strikeout percentage, they project him to be tied at No. 24 with Jacob deGrom at 27.1%. By WHIP, they project him to tie for 29th place with Tyler Glasnow, Nathan Eovaldi, Shota Imanaga and Grayson Rodriguez.

Whether or not Peralta is truly an ace, you can be comfortable starting a pitcher in Game One of a playoff series when they are listed among names like those.

Conclusion

This trade makes the Mets’ rotation significantly better. The club now has the fifth-best projected rotation ERA by FanGraphs’ Depth Charts system, which is a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections based on playing time allocations determined by the site’s staff, at 3.80. OOPSY also projects them to finish fifth in ERA at 3.99.

The Mets’ rotation depth is also rather impressive. Myers could fill a swing man and sixth starter role, similar to Trevor Williams in 2022. Christian Scott is set to return from Tommy John surgery. Jonah Tong, Jonathan Santucci, Jack Wenninger, Will Watson, and Zach Thornton are all prospects that could end up throwing some innings in the majors this year. Their depth also includes arms like Jonathan Pintaro, Joander Suarez, Brandon Waddell, and Justin Hagenman.

While the Mets had already improved their depth, they desperately needed that arm at the top of the rotation, and Peralta will now fill that role. Whether it is for one year or he signs an extension – he did signal a willingness to do so in June 2025 with the Brewers – this could turn the 2026 Mets from a Wild Card contender to an NL East contender, and maybe even into a World Series contender.

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