NFL picks: Patriots have big advantage with their QB against Broncos, who’ll be starting Jarrett Stidham

LAS VEGAS — Of the four remaining playoff quarterbacks, Drake Maye, who’s in his second season, has distinguished himself by having led the Patriots to five consecutive victories — and 15 in their last 16 games.

During this five-game run, he has completed nearly 70% of his passes (97-for-139, 69.8%) and has thrown for 12 touchdowns with only three interceptions.

Opposite Maye on Sunday will be career backup Jarrett Stidham, “Stidhy” to teammates, who hasn’t tossed a pass in an NFL game in more than two years and two weeks.

Stidham’s singular professional claim to fame is a 54-yard touchdown strike to Lil’Jordan Humphrey that helped the Broncos defeat someone named Easton Stick and the Chargers 16-9 on New Year’s Eve 2023.

The next week, Stidham went 20-for-34 for 272 yards and a touchdown with a pick in a 27-14 loss at the Raiders.

Since then, nothing.

Broncos fans can boast about a mile-high home-field advantage. But the Patriots are 8-0 (7-1 ATS) on the highway this season, and their quarterback is miles ahead of this dude from Texas who’ll suit up for Denver.

We see this outcome rivaling the Broncos’ worst postseason home defeat, 34-17 to the Steelers on Jan. 22, 2006.

Denver’s defense is stout, as reflected by the 0.243 points per play (PPP) it has yielded over its last three games, fourth-lowest in the league. It also has given up an unspectacular average of 17 first downs over that stretch.

It’s the worst of timing for a reserve to start against the Patriots, who have kept nine consecutive opponents from throwing for 200 yards. They claimed five turnovers last week, and we expect more of the same in Denver.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford fared decently against a Bears secondary that rose to the occasion Sunday at frigid Soldier Field. He threw no touchdown passes, but none were picked off, either. A ground game led by Kyren Williams (21 carries, 87 yards, two touchdowns) set the pace for the Rams in their overtime victory.

Now the road gets tougher against Seattle, which has allowed its last three opponents only 11.3 first downs, stingiest in the NFL. The Seahawks have won eight in a row, and five of those foes have scored 10 points or fewer.

Rashid Shaheed stunned the 49ers on Saturday at the opening kickoff by running it back 95 yards for a touchdown, and Kenneth Walker III scored three touchdowns in the 41-6 wipeout.

In seven career games against the Rams, Walker has 625 total yards, on 100 runs and 15 catches, with two TDs. He has averaged 147 total yards in three of his last four games.

He’ll carry the ground load with the shelving of Zach Charbonnet (knee).

The Rams are susceptible to breaking down against the run, as their last five opponents have rushed for 712 yards and six TDs.

That includes their previous trip to Seattle, on Dec. 18, when the Seahawks had 171 rushing yards and won 38-37 in overtime.

Over their last three games, the Rams have given up 20.3 first downs, in the NFL’s bottom third. They’ve allowed 0.343 PPP, in the middle of the league.

Seattle’s defense, meanwhile, has been flexing recently with a 0.123 PPP average that, again, tops the league.

Worse for Stafford, Seattle’s pass defense has allowed a league-low 3.5 yards per pass over its last three games; L.A. nearly doubles that at 6.5.

On Sunday night, the Seahawks run their winning streak to nine games.

Best bets

PATRIOTS at BRONCOS

Time: 2 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.

Line: Patriots by 5½. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 16-3/13-6; Broncos 15-3/8-9-1.

Pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 13.

Play: Patriots -5½.

RAMS at SEAHAWKS

Time: 5:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.

Line: Seahawks by 2½. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Rams 14-5/12-7; Seahawks 15-3/14-4.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 13.

Play: Seahawks -2½.

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