Carney and Poilievre find themselves on two very different hot seats as Parliament gears up to return

OTTAWA — Canada’s two main political party leaders won’t boast about the connection, but they have at least one important thing in common these days: As a new session of Parliament opens Monday, they’re both sitting on hot seats.

Facing upcoming periods that may well determine their political fates, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are both approaching hurdles they need to get over in the coming weeks and months to ensure their grips on power.

The Liberals are still polling at about the same level as they were during last year’s election, with Carney’s personal approval numbers staying strong, and the prime minister is coming off an international trip that ended with a well-received speech in Davos that drove international headlines. But the prime minister’s situation is more complicated, and sneakily more precarious, than it might at first appear.

As he tries to reshape the Canadian economy amid slowing growth and the reign of an unpredictable and bellicose U.S. president, Carney faces a challenging agenda, arguably one of the busiest in recent generations.

First, he needs to publicly defend Canada’s interests while staying out of Trump’s doghouse. The North American free trade deal is up for review later this year and the mercurial president’s moods – not to mention his naughty list – seem to go a long way in shaping U.S. policy. Trump threatened last week to boost tariffs on European allies, for example, who didn’t go along with his wish to take over Greenland.

Second, Carney needs to continue to move quickly.

One of the main challenges, analysts say, is that many of the promised solutions to some of the country’s most pressing issues — Canada-U.S. trade, diversifying exports, low productivity, inter-provincial free trade, housing, and infrastructure — require long-term fixes. Reshaping the economic landscape to attract more investment and to find new markets for Canadian exports, for example, convincing developers, provinces and municipalities to take the steps needed to put up more houses, and building or renovating ports, rail and airports are all long-term issues that will take many years to fix.

News releases, federal-provincial MOUs and trade missions to Asia may be necessary steps, but they don’t put food on the table like signed export contracts and concrete being poured.

Some analysts say 2026 will be the year when Canadians get frustrated if they don’t see tangible results such as, for example, the start of construction of a new or enhanced energy pipeline to the west coast, a dramatic increase in housing starts, or a leak-proof deal on inter-provincial free trade. He scored a potential win last week when he signed a trade deal with China that is expected to lower or eliminate tariffs on some Canadian agricultural exports, while cutting tariffs on 49,000 Chinese-made electric vehicles.

If Carney doesn’t get beyond plans and promises, analysts say, his grip on power could be weakened, which could lead to the opposition parties triggering an election.

“I think Canadians wanted to give him some room to get things done,” said Brian Lee Crowley, managing director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. “But they won’t wait forever.”

The political waters could get murkier later in the year. Québec will hold an election in October, which could affect the Bloc Québécois’ willingness to trigger a federal election. A month later, the U.S. mid-term elections could have a profound effect on Canada, and many other things, as the Democrats aim to take back control of Congress and provide Trump with a more formidable opposition.

Tyler Meredith, a senior policy advisor in the Trudeau government, suggested that Carney focus over the coming year primarily on key domestic issues, such as affordability, housing and industrial strategy, and less on geo-political matters that are largely out of Canada’s hands. The domestic agenda is “still where the ball game is,” he said.

But Carney will need to explain very clearly to Canadians how these complicated, long-term domestic issues affect their wallets and lives, Meredith said.

Opinion polls agree that Canadians have so far given the Carney government a pass in that they trust the prime minister and his resum é , but that they want to see some clear, tangible wins.

Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, said Carney likely gets a longer leash from voters because he’s mostly selling credentials and competence.

“I think there’s a sense that he needs some time,” she said. “He’s not really asking you to like him.”

But analysts said there’s one big win that would likely override tepid results on many other files: Canada-U.S. trade.

If Carney were able to land a refurbished or renegotiated trade deal with the United States, and perhaps Mexico, that was widely deemed to be reasonable, it could provide the Canadian economy with a jump start and reinforce voters’ faith in the former central banker. Not landing a trade deal could be equally impactful to the political landscape.

“That’s one issue where something has to give,” said Sanjay Jeram, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. “He could really use a win or it could be challenging for him to maintain the unwavering support.”

Canadians are unclear what’s going on in North American trade and may be growing impatient, according to a recent Leger poll. They’re also becoming more pessimistic about what they expect from trade relations for this year, with 41 per cent saying they figure things will get worse, compared to 20 per cent who expect things will improve.

“We’re not necessarily seeing action,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s Central Canada operations. “And I think Canadians are starting to question the effectiveness of the government’s response.”

In the interim, before that review of North American trade, Carney will try to fill the export void by trying to forge closer relations with economic heavyweights such as China and India, and smaller trading partners such as those in the Mid-east. That’s why Carney travelled last week to Qatar to meet investors and political leaders, following meetings in China.

“We have to do more business,” said Meredith.

As almost always in politics though, a strong economy hides a lot of warts.

Economists don’t expect the Canadian economy to provide the Carney government with that cover in 2026, but many do see the year as pivotal in determining longer-term growth.

Dave McKay, chief executive of Royal Bank of Canada, said earlier this month that Canada’s economy is looking strong for the coming year, in large part because of the federal government’s efforts to accelerate energy projects and housing.

McKay also said that the planned renegotiation later this year of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement will play a major role in Canada’s economic performance, but that he’s confident that any changes to the existing deal won’t dramatically affect continental trade.

“I’ve been more excited about Canada than I have been in the last decade. The tone at the top is really good.”

Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, said her company forecasts modest growth of 1.5 per cent for the Canadian economy in 2026 as exporters face uncertainty at the Canada-U.S. border.

But Desjardins expects that the next 12 months will mark “an inflection point” as governments carry out policies to make investment more attractive.

“From improving infrastructure to eliminating barriers to internal trade and reducing regulatory hurdles, Canada is hitting the reset button,” Desjardins wrote in a new report.

In keeping with the government’s key challenge – and perhaps security blanket – Desjardins adds that Canadians shouldn’t expect governments to complete the structural economic changes over night.

The Carney government, which says it’s moving the Canadian economy “from reliance to resilience” by attracting more investment and doubling non-U.S. exports over the next decade, is hoping that that message is heard in the coming months.

For the Liberal prime minister, not to mention his Conservative rival, the future may rest on it.

As Carney basks in the international headlines from his recent trip abroad, Poilievre is working on convincing Tory voters that he’s still the party’s best bet to lead them in the next election.

With the return of Parliament, both of the main party leaders are being threatened by circumstances that are at least somewhat out of their hands, and the possibility of a federal election later this year that could see the loser tossed aside.

As one veteran Conservative insider put it: both leaders need to “win or go home.”

Crowley said the two leaders share the difficult challenge of needing to meet long-term goals over the short term. “It’s a critical time for both of our aspiring leaders.”

Poilievre’s challenge is likely the more clear cut of the two.

As he was the party leader during a losing federal election, he will be subject to an automatic, secret-ballot leadership review to be held in Calgary at the end of the month. Technically, he must win a majority to keep his job and earn the right to make his case again to the national electorate. But in reality, he will need to do better than that by a significant but unknown margin to be able to stay on.

Poilievre has some cards in his hand. With undeniable, true-blue Conservative credentials, he’s popular within the party, although perhaps less so than about a year ago when he and his party seemed headed for a slam dunk election win.

And so far at least, there’s no clear alternative to Poilievre’s leadership, or even a widely whispered heir apparent.

Even if he’s very likely to remain as Tory leader after the vote, that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a lot on the line.

Turnbull said Poilievre could survive the leadership review, but still be weakened within caucus if party voters don’t give him a strong mandate. “Caucus relations break down over time.”

Poilievre is also exiting a 2025 where his armour was severely dented, losing a massive lead in the polls and his own seat in the April election, then a couple of defectors to the Liberals later in the year. Amid rumours of possible further floor crossers, the governing party is now just a single MP short of the combined number of legislators of the opposition parties.

SFU’s Jeram said enough has gone wrong that he doesn’t think Poilievre will still be the Tory leader during the next election.

But supporters point to the fact that Poilievre won more votes in the last election than any Conservative leader in Canadian history. The context, however, is that voter turnout was high (about 68.7 per cent of eligible voters, the most in more than three decades), the population has been on a steady climb, and the Conservatives still lost to their rivals for the fourth consecutive election.

Critics also point out that the Conservatives’ lofty vote total in April was mitigated by voters’ flocking to the two major parties during an election that was largely fought over Canada’s response to the Trump tariffs. About 85 per cent of voters opted for the Liberals or the Conservatives, a staggering increase compared to the previous election just four years earlier when 66.3 per cent of voters did so. That level of dominance in a federal election by the two major parties hadn’t been seen in almost 70 years.

Despite the lofty vote totals less than a year ago, Poilievre’s approval numbers have also lagged those of his party, never a good sign for a political leader.

Recent opinion polls have usually showed the Liberals with a modest single-digit lead over the Conservatives, while Poilievre’s approval ratings with the general public, in contrast with his strong support within his party, tend to be about half those of Carney (50 per cent versus 25).

On the surface, Carney would appear to be on solid political ground — much more so than his key rival. But the two parties remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally and, as Poilievre learned a year ago, things can change quickly in Canadian politics.

“The Liberals held a comfortable lead through much of last year,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, following the Jan. 5 release of a new poll. “But the Conservatives have steadily closed the gap and right now we’re essentially looking at a national tie.”

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