AI Is Quietly Propping Up the Global Economy, IMF Says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just delivered an unexpected signal: the global economy may be stronger than feared in 2026.

In its latest outlook, the IMF raised its growth forecast, pointing to sustained investment in artificial intelligence even as trade tensions and tariff risks continue to hover over the global economy. The message is cautiously optimistic… but narrowly so.

A small revision with global implications

The IMF now forecasts global growth of 3.3% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its October estimate, while maintaining its 2025 growth projection at the same level. The upgrade shows expectations that trade-related drag will be lower than last year.

The revision was tied to easing tariff pressures and continued spending linked to AI buildout. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters the global economy has remained resilient as businesses adapt to the current trade environment.

The engines carrying global growth forward

According to the IMF, the recent gains are concentrated in a limited set of technology-linked industries, rather than spread broadly across the global economy. It noted that much of the momentum is coming from sectors tied to advanced computing and related infrastructure.

That concentration is most visible in the US, where technology-heavy investment is contributing more strongly to growth than in Europe, which benefits less from the current cycle. The IMF cautioned that this uneven distribution leaves global growth reliant on a limited group of drivers, increasing sensitivity to changes in investment conditions.

Inflation eases as growth holds

Global inflation is expected to continue cooling, easing a key pressure that weighed on growth in recent years. The IMF forecasts price increases to slow further in 2026, providing a more supportive backdrop for economic activity.

Price trends still vary across regions, with pressures projected to return to target more gradually in the US than in other major economies. The IMF said the easing trend should help stabilize growth as economies adjust to differing recovery speeds and ongoing policy uncertainty.

When optimism meets uncertainty

Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside despite steady headline growth, the IMF said, warning that a reassessment of productivity expectations tied to advanced technologies could slow investment and trigger a correction in elevated market valuations.

In downside scenarios, a broader market adjustment could reduce global growth by about 0.4 percentage points. Continued trade policy uncertainty, including legal challenges to tariff authority and geopolitical tensions, was also cited as a potential source of renewed disruption to supply chains and financial markets.

The IMF warned that reliance on a narrow set of firms and sectors heightens vulnerability to changes in sentiment, policy, or financial conditions, while leaving its baseline outlook unchanged.

OpenAI’s business is scaling fast, with new figures showing revenue has surged alongside a major expansion in computing capacity.

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