How Trump Outfoxed Himself

President Donald Trump kicked off the new year with a cacophony of policy decisions which have diverted attention from his disastrous 2025. 

The first year of Trump 2.0 has been soundly rated a failure in all major national polls and in each dimension of national and international priorities. Gallup found that only 36% of Americans approve of the President’s job performance. And according to a CNN poll, just 37% of Americans say that Trump places the good of the country above his personal gain and 32% say that he’s in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives.

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Faced with high levels of unemployment, an affordability crisis, and being named in the Epstein files multiple times, Trump has unleashed a blizzard of divisive actions. He has attempted to change public discourse to focus on an alarmist hunt for enemies abroad, through his aggressions against Venezuela and Greenland, and at home, through his unpopular and violent ICE raids and attacks against Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.

Chaos is often an order, misunderstood. There is a method to Trump’s madness—but it can backfire.

Philosopher George Santayana once proclaimed that “Chaos is a name for any order that produces confusion in our minds.” Philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche saw chaos as a creative force to “give birth to a dancing star.” The renowned psychologist Carl Jung drew upon a similar celestial meaning of chaos: “In all chaos there is a cosmos, in all disorder a secret order.”

Having personally known and studied Trump for decades, I have come to believe that philosophers, psychologists, and magicians—with their appreciation of intentional smokescreens and colliding illusions as diversions—can help us best understand the President. Historians and alarmist journalists often wrongly classified Trump as dumb or crazy. In my view, Trump is crazy like a fox in that he uses his facade of chaos to accomplish his goals. But even foxes can outfox themselves by their own designs.

American journalists have been understandably overwhelmed by President Trump’s 2026 chaos. In a candid confession, ABC’s Jonathan Karl acknowledged this: “This morning, we had a hard time figuring out where to start the show. The frenzy of activity emanating from the White House so far in the first weeks of 2026 has been dizzying.”

Some have concluded that Trump’s frenzy is the arbitrary approach of a deranged demagogue. “Trump does not appear to have control of his mental faculties,” asserts historian Heather Cox Richardson. “When people talk about that ‘Oh he shouldn’t do this?  He can’t do this? Why is he doing this?’ and so on—you don’t make those arguments about people who don’t have any logical reason for anything they are doing excerpt perhaps, ‘I wanna feel good about myself and make lots of money.”

But this perspective misses an important point: Trump keeps getting what he wants. 

Consider the many times Trump’s political balloon was thought to be punctured. He began his political career falsely accusing President Barack Obama of not being a citizen. He insulted large groups of people including, but not limited to, Mexican immigrants, Muslim Americans, and women. He ridiculed John McCain and other heroic veterans. Still, he has received support from some voters of these groups.

In May 2024, a jury convicted Trump as guilty of 34 felony counts for repeatedly and fraudulently falsifying business records in a scheme to conceal a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels in an effort to impact the 2016 election. Still, he won the 2024 election. 

And a special investigation determined that Trump led a “criminal effort” to overturn the 2020 election, which resulted in the Jan 6. insurrection. Still, Trump has successfully pardoned over 1,500 Capitol rioters.

I would argue that the transgressions of President Richard Nixon (who resigned by his own accord) pale in comparison. Most other politicians would have been felled by any one of these seeming missteps. And yet, like the villain in a Stephen King horror story, Trump was always returned to fight another day, even when he was presumed to be vanquished. His resilience is proof that he is a wizard of mass communications with a set of tools. These include divide and conquer techniques and bullying—as well as an ability to centralize authority and produce a haze of confusion akin to a Phil Spector-esque musical “wall of sound.”

Indeed, Trump is dumb like a fox with intrigues he has carefully devised. However, ancient mythology is filled with examples of crafty foxes being outsmarted by their own traps. Unlike the pounding melody in a Phil Spector song, Trump’s tune is lost in his own noise with his message diluted.

Trump’s effort to justify his invasion of Venezuela has been deflated. The excuses of drug interdiction, or to restore democracy, or to serve the commercial interests of the U.S. oil industry have been unraveled.

Just last month, Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted of drug trafficking—undermining his “war on drugs” narrative. Trump left in place the entire corrupt Venezuelan regime he promised to remove. The oil barons of the U.S. contradicted Trump saying they were never in favor of an invasion of Venezuela and that Venezuela’s oil is un-investable.

Domestically, Trump’s efforts to prosecute dissenting government officials have repeatedly failed in the courts and led to dissent in his own party. The cruel ICE raids against non-criminal members of U.S. society have unified communities against him, driving down his national polls and accidentally diverting attention from his success in stemming illegal border crossings.

Trump’s challenge is not his intelligence or his sanity, it is his values and his over-reliance upon the same tool kit. 

In my book Trump’s Ten Commandments, I make the argument that there are 10 principles of mass communication and persuasion which Trump has mastered. However, what 2026 has made clear is that he is over-reliant on these tools.

The philosopher Abraham Kaplan referred to this as “the law of instrument.” Using the same hammer with increasing fevered frenzy is not going to address the challenge when a different approach, like perhaps a saw or a wrench, is needed. Trump needs to adopt new unfamiliar leadership tools which he has no experience using and which are unknown to his current sycophantic advisors.