Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona, Houston on top as Iowa State tumbles and the Wildcats gain a hidden early edge
Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition can be found here.)
Four teams are separated by one game and eight teams by just two games in the Big 12 standings, a perfectly reasonable logjam given the relatively early stage of the conference season.
But another method of assessing performance, which takes schedules into account, suggests the race isn’t quite as close as it appears — and that Arizona has grabbed control.
The Hotline examined three weeks of results using a formula that assigns each team one point for a road win and docks each team one point for a home loss.
The undefeated, top-ranked Wildcats are +3 thanks to victories at Utah, TCU and UCF, a full point clear of Houston and BYU and two points ahead of Texas Tech and Iowa State. Nobody else is on the positive side of the ledger.
How many points are required to secure the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament? Last year, Houston finished four games clear with a remarkable 19-1 record, followed by Texas Tech (15-5).
But the Big 12 trimmed the conference schedule by two games this season. Our best guess: If 15-3 isn’t good enough to win the regular season outright, it should be mighty close.
Applying our aforementioned formula, six more road wins than home losses is the goal.
The Wildcats are halfway there with three stellar opportunities remaining to hit the target. They play Arizona State, Baylor and Colorado, which have a combined conference record of 4-11, on the road.
Of course, that scenario presumes they don’t lose at home despite late-season visits from Texas Tech, BYU and Iowa State. Each loss in McKale Center would require an offsetting road win above and beyond the trips to Tempe, Waco and Boulder.
That’s where the path starts to narrow, because Arizona’s other remaining trips can hardly be considered stellar opportunities: BYU, Kansas and Houston.
Admittedly, our bar for the regular-season race could prove erroneous. Perhaps the winner finishes 16-2, which would require a team to finish +7 using the home-road point total formula. Or maybe 14-4 would be enough, lowering the total to +5.
Either way, the Wildcats have an edge on the competition thanks to their performance on the road thus far.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (18-0/5-0)
Results: beat Arizona State 89-82, won at UCF 84-77
NET ranking: No. 3
Comment: The Wildcats are the unanimous No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in school history but merely No. 3 in the NET. Why the discrepancy? Because they have seven Quadrant IV wins, while top-ranked Michigan has one and second-ranked Duke has five. And the NET algorithm does not like Quad IV results one bit. (Previous: 1)
2. Houston (17-1/5-0)
Results: beat West Virginia 77-48 and Arizona State 103-73
NET ranking: No. 9
Comment: If the Cougars win in Lubbock this weekend, they should be 9-0 in conference play heading to Provo in early February, and if they win in Provo, they should be 12-0 entering a mammoth three-game stretch against Arizona, Iowa State and Kansas. (Previous: 3)
3. Texas Tech (14-4/4-1)
Results: beat Utah 88-74 and BYU 84-71
NET ranking: No. 19
Comment: The Red Raiders are 6-1 when LeJaun Watts scores at least 15 points. For the season, he’s averaging 13.4 ppg, behind JT Toppin and Christian Anderson. (Previous: 4)
4. Iowa State (16-2/3-2)
Results: lost at Kansas 84-63 and Cincinnati 79-70
NET ranking: No. 10
Comment: The Cyclones did much worse than lose in Lawrence. They allowed the loss in Lawrence to become a loss in Cincinnati. And as a result, they lost serious ground in the conference race and are looking up at four teams, not two. (Previous: 2)
5. BYU (16-2/4-1)
Results: beat TCU 76-70, lost at Texas Tech 84-71
NET ranking: No. 11
Comment: Anyone else find it odd that BYU and Utah will play Saturday for the second time in two weeks and not face each other again during the regular season? We’re suckers for late-season rivalry games. (Previous: 5)
6. UCF (14-3/3-2)
Results: won at Kansas State 82-73, lost to Arizona 84-77
NET ranking: No. 35
Comment: Given UCF’s current position in the NET and Pomeroy Ratings (No. 43), it appears avoiding bad losses is as critical as accumulating quality wins. (Previous: 6)
7. Kansas (13-5/3-2)
Results: beat Iowa State 84-63 and Baylor 80-62
NET ranking: No. 17
Comment: The Jayhawks are undefeated at home in conference play and winless on the road, a typical disparity for mediocre teams hoping to gain relevance and sneak into the NCAA Tournament. (Previous: 9)
8. TCU (11-7/1-4)
Results: lost at BYU 76-70 and Utah 82-79
NET ranking: No. 49
Comment: Add the Horned Frogs to the list of teams that haven’t been the same since losing at Kansas. In their case, the 104-100 overtime defeat started a four-game skid. (Previous: 7)
9. Colorado (12-6/2-3)
Results: lost at Cincinnati 77-68 and West Virginia 72-61
NET ranking: No. 76
Comment: The 10-1 start feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, the Buffaloes have dropped five of seven, and the toughest stretch of their schedule is yet to come. (Previous: 8)
10. Baylor (11-6/1-4)
Results: won at Oklahoma State 94-79, lost at Kansas 80-62
NET ranking: No. 45
Comment: The defense, which ranks 95th in the Pomeroy Ratings (points allowed per 100 possessions), isn’t nearly stout enough to support a run up the standings. (Previous: 10)
11. Oklahoma State (14-4/2-3)
Results: lost to Baylor 94-79, beat Kansas State 84-83
NET ranking: No. 75
Comment: The Cowboys are 4-0 in games decided by two possessions or less. Nothing wrong with living right for as long as the basketball gods allow. (Previous: 11)
12. West Virginia (12-6/3-2)
Results: lost at Houston 77-48, beat Colorado 72-61
NET ranking: No. 64
Comment: If the Mountaineers maintain this pace, Ross Hodge might land on the short list of candidates for Big 12 Coach of the Year alongside UCF’s Johnny Dawkins and whoever earns the No. 1 seed. (Previous: 12)
13. Cincinnati (10-8/2-3)
Results: beat Colorado 77-68 and Iowa State 79-70
NET ranking: No. 69
Comment: The Bearcats have the third-best defensive efficiency in the Big 12 and are No. 7 nationally, per Pomeroy. But their offense is downright ghastly: last in the conference and 180th nationally. (Previous: 15)
14. Arizona State (10-8/1-4)
Results: lost at Arizona 89-82 and Houston 103-73
NET ranking: No. 88
Comment: The Sun Devils were set up to fail by the conference schedule — an absolutely brutal back-to-back — but must regroup immediately and take advantage of the winnable games upcoming. The stretch starts this week with West Virginia and Cincinnati at home. (Previous: 13)
15. Kansas State (9-9/0-5)
Results: lost to UCF 82-73 and at Oklahoma State 84-83
NET ranking: No. 84
Comment: The bell could toll in Manhattan two months from now, if not sooner. Things have gone sideways for Jerome Tang more rapidly than we expected. (Previous: 14)
16. Utah (9-9/1-4)
Results: lost at Texas Tech 88-74, beat TCU 82-79
NET ranking: No. 121
Comment: The Hotline would not offer former coach Craig Smith a penny for his thoughts because we can guess exactly what he’s thinking, and he might prove correct — it’s still too soon to know. (Previous: 16)
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