PLA Justice Mission 2025 Further Rehearses Taiwan Invasion Operations
PLA Justice Mission 2025 Further Rehearses Taiwan Invasion Operations
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Download Volume 26 Issue 1 here.
SWJ Commentary:
Understand how the PRC normalizes malign activity and erodes the efficacy of indications and warnings. A few years ago, this would have caused a real reaction from the U.S. and other Indo-Pacific powers.
Why do so many members of the national security blob in the U.S. continue to present the PRC seizure of Taiwan as an “IF?” Does not seem to be a question of “IF?” Seems more like a question of “WHEN AND HOW?” Thankfully, the answers to those two real questions are becoming more clear through the work of The Jamestown Foundation and others.
The PRC WILL take Taiwan when the leaders of the CCP believe they are ready. They will do it in a manner of their choosing. Delaying recognition of Taiwan and failing to advance an Indo-Pacific security pact seem to only help the PRC’s preparations. Please someone convince us otherwise.
Executive Summary:
- The PLA launched another military exercise in late December 2025, with force scale and deployment locations broadly similar to previous drills.
- The exercise nonetheless signaled an effort by the Eastern Theater Command to sustain year-round readiness, likely in response to Xi Jinping’s directive to achieve the capability to conduct operations against Taiwan by 2027.
- Compared with earlier exercises, this drill advanced invasion-related rehearsals, including scenarios involving the seizure of the Penghu Islands and parts of eastern Taiwan.
- Although China displayed a degree of restraint during this exercise, it also suggested that a future operation without such restraint could carry far more serious consequences, which would likely include significant disruption to air and maritime traffic in the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel.
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