US tariffs are paid almost entirely by Americans, a German study finds

• A Kiel Institute study found US tariffs are mostly paid by American importers and consumers.
• The study found foreign exporters paid only around 4% of the tariff cost.
• The research contradicts Trump's messaging that Americans aren't paying for tariffs.

A favorite tool of President Donald Trump has been costing Americans, according to new study.

The brunt of US tariffs — 96% — have been paid by US buyers, research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, found, while about 4% of the tariff burden was paid by foreign exporters.

"American importers and consumers bear nearly all the cost," the researchers said of the tariffs.

The study, published Monday, said that the $200 billion increase in customs revenue that the US government raised in 2025 was a "tax paid almost entirely by Americans."

The research contradicts Trump's messaging that tariff costs would not be paid by Americans, but by other countries and overseas exporters. The president's aggressive tariff policy launched last year placed additional duties on dozens of trade partners, including China, India, and the European Union.

The Kiel Institute study examined more than 25 million shipment records, worth nearly $4 trillion, between January 2024 and November 2025. The researchers found that there was a "near-complete pass-through" of the tariffs.

"US import prices rise nearly one-for-one with tariffs, while trade volumes contract," the study said.

The findings echo other research that has found Americans are paying for tariffs, including from Harvard Business School and The Budget Lab at Yale. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America also said last year that Americans were the ones paying for the tariffs.

The Kiel study said American importers and wholesalers are first hit by the tariff cost, followed by manufacturers and retailers, all of which must choose whether to absorb the tariff or pass it on to their customers. American consumers are then hit by increased prices, both on imported goods or American-made products that use foreign inputs. There's been more limited availability of goods in the US, the researchers found.

Trump has continued to use tariffs, saying on Saturday that he would impose additional tariffs on Denmark and other European countries unless they agree to a deal that would transfer Greenland to the US.

Many of Trump's tariff policies could also be undone. The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of a host of Trump's tariffs that were instituted under an emergency national security law. Trump has said the US would be "screwed" if the tariffs are overturned.