Wetter, warmer, sunnier: A forecasters guide to the challenges and opportunities of climate change for sailors

A veteran forecaster explores how climate change is reshaping our seas and what shifting winds and rising tides really mean for sailors

‘Climate change’ is a phrase that can brush past our ears without a thought to its implications. Each day media outlets carry the latest Armageddon-style warnings about the weather of recent years, changes that have occurred and what is about to happen in future decades. There is a lot of ‘climate noise’ out there, and for sailors (and just about everyone else) it can cause much confusion.

In July 2025, the UK Met Office released it’s ‘State of the Climate 2024’ report which headlined that recent years had ‘continued to bring warmer, wetter and sunnier weather than the 20th Century’.

It claims that extreme weather events have become a regular feature of our climate and are impacting communities. But what of the impacts on the sailing community, what does a changing climate mean for those who take to the water?

As a professional meteorologist with more than four decades of forecasting experience, I am always cautious of various claims made about our climate.

This is not to say I am a sceptic, but just that our climate system is so complex, with so many interactions that I treat claims made cautiously. Whilst not doubting the veracity of scientists involved in climate research, I do think our minds need to remain open to new research as it is published.

Sensible scepticism

When forecasting I am always amazed at Mother Nature’s ability to lull us into a false sense of security and the temptation I still have to create a particular forecast only to be confounded as at the last minute the weather ingredients change and hence what was going to be an accurate forecast becomes an appalling one.

As models improve, the times when a forecast is in error is much more noticeable. There is now understandably a greater expectation amongst sailors that a forecast should be correct, and if it isn’t then the whole basis of forecasting should suddenly be called into question.

This neatly leads me into another area of questioning of climate change models. After all, similar techniques are used for making longer range ‘forecasts’, although with much less data and many more assumptions being made.

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This is why we should question, question and question again claims made that a particular extreme weather event is linked to a changing climate, or that decades to come will see the end of cold winters and cool summers.

There’s no doubt that humans are adding to the impact of climate change. Greenhouse gases are warming our atmosphere beyond that of what might be naturally expected, and so mitigation against these is most certainly our best form of defence. Of course sailing is one of the least polluting of all pastimes and so it is the emissions of others that are largely going to impact on us. But what do we know so far? What is the evidence and what should we be aware of as sailors?

Annual State of the Climate reports are a good place to start looking for this evidence. There’s a great deal of good science contained within them and they are certainly highlighting some of the environmental changes which have already taken place within the atmosphere and our oceans.

Is sea-level rising?

Over the past 100 years, sea levels around UK shores have risen by around 19.5cm, a questionably precise number, but one which gives the best estimation of the change which has already begun. The number is in line with the prediction from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which in 2021 said that globally, between 1901 and 2018 global sea levels had risen by about 20cm.

Thoughts are that most of this rise can be attributed to the loss of ice mass from ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica as well as a general warming of the ocean. Interestingly when ice in oceans melts, there is almost no change in sea level as sea ice displaces its own weight in water, and therefore the ice changes state, but does not change its displacement.

However, if ice which is over the land melts, such as the glaciers mentioned above, the melted fresh water will cause sea level to rise. To put this in context, should all the world’s ice melt, then sea levels would rise by around 65 metres. Even a partial melting will have an effect. It’s a sobering thing to think about.

In the UK it seems that there has been a general acceleration in the rise of sea level since 1993, although the rise is by no means the same year on year. However, the 17 highest sea level rises in the UK since 1900 have all happened since 2001 and the three highest years are all in the most recent three years.

One of the major impacts of short-term sea level rises around the British Isles are storm surges caused by low pressure systems, especially during the winter months. For every millibar drop in atmospheric pressure, sea level can rise by 1cm. So that means that if pressure falls to 970mb, sea level can be expected to rise by 43cm above a datum level of 1013mb on that particular day, and that is without the effect of wind speed and wind direction.

Has it got windier?

So what of the wind? Do we have any evidence that wind speeds are changing as the world warms? The overall consensus is that changes in wind speed is something that is very difficult to ascertain with any degree of high confidence over large geographical areas.

With that caveat in mind there is some indication that prior to around 2010 there was a slowing of surface wind speeds, a phenomena known as ‘global stilling’.

This is a trend that we have seen in the British Isles too (remember we are talking long-term trends, not just a season or individual storm).

Since 2010 it appears from some research that wind speeds may have begun to increase again. One has to be very careful when looking for reasons accompanying changing wind speeds. Should we see deeper low pressure systems (see below) then wind speeds in these individual storms are likely to be faster, and so single events could be more damaging.

However, by contrast, should the jet stream be undulating more then there are likely to be areas of wind with lower speeds, combating those associated with low pressure and higher wind speeds. This could be interpreted for the sailor as meaning that although gales may not be as widespread, the actual peak speeds within the areas that the gales occur could be higher and thus the impact could be greater.

The graphs shown above right are for zonal winds (which is the flow from West to East or vice versa) and meridional winds (north to south or vice versa) going back to 1940. The red line is the rolling 5-year average. It’s interesting to note the decreased frequency in the west-east flow in recent years, whilst the north-south flow has tended to show an increase in frequency. This backs up the idea above of the jet stream undergoing more elongation, and that tends to allow pressure systems to become blocked.

Add to this increased speeds further increasing wave heights as the wind ‘pushes’ the water with the wind, more flooding of harbours and marines could occur.

How are high & low pressure systems affected?

There really isn’t any suggestion as of now that low pressure systems will become deeper due to climate change. What may happen, and perhaps already has, is that the temperature contrast between warm and cold air along the fronts that surround areas of low pressure could intensify.

This brings stronger fronts, which mean that rainfall along the fronts is likely to be heavier.

Because of the sharper temperature contrasts we are also likely to see more classically textbook-type fronts.

As well as being stronger, areas behind the fronts could be notable in the weather they bring. So, behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front, the area we know as the warm sector, could bring more widespread mist, fog and drizzle.

As the cold front passes, gusts of wind along the front could be stronger and more squally with rapid changes in speeds as the cold front passes. To the rear of the cold front showers could be heavier with increased squally gusts of wind. The impact of these increased winds could be to bring rougher seas.

With the jet stream undulating more we could see prolonged spells of both low-pressure conditions, but also longer periods of higher pressure, which mean drier and lighter wind conditions lasting for longer periods, with patterns more likely to become ‘locked in’ for many weeks.

Have sea temperatures risen?

Global sea temperatures have risen and are forecast to rise further. Comparing 2024 with 1948 (when the dataset available started) there is a marked increase in sea temperatures. That’s only one year compared with another, but it does nicely illustrate that ocean temperatures have increased. If we look back further we can see the more rapid increase which begins in the early 1970s.

Increased sea temperature allows for more heat energy to be released into the atmosphere. This could bring more severe storms and increased cloudiness.

Bringing it all together

So a changing climate is going to have an impact on sailing, although it’s a complicated story. Planning ahead for changing sea levels is mostly going to affect the commercial operation of marinas and harbours. Strengthening sea defences against rougher seas is going to have a financial impact.

As we sail, extremes of weather could become more frequent. So that could be increased wind gusts above the mean speeds, but it may also bring us spells of lighter winds, and so more motoring on some days, increasing our costs. Being prepared for sailing in rougher seas, and also improving our tactical skills in lighter winds will be necessary.

A better understanding of the weather and also how forecasts are created is crucial. Understanding forecasts and when, why and how they change and may be inaccurate is important too. A combination of downloaded data and forecast knowledge is the best way to make the most of the weather machine.

Climate change presents many challenges but also opportunities for sailing in the years ahead.

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The post Wetter, warmer, sunnier: A forecasters guide to the challenges and opportunities of climate change for sailors appeared first on Yachting Monthly.