Breaking down the transfer portal winners (Arizona, Cal, BYU and UCLA) and losers (Washington, ASU, Colorado and Stanford)
More than 10,000 football players across all divisions entered the transfer portal before it closed Friday. Approximately 1,200 remain homeless, according to the NCAA. (There is no deadline to commit to a new school.) But because the transfer portal has no legal teeth — it can’t prevent players from withdrawing from one school and enrolling at another — there could be a second wave of moves following spring practice. Here’s our look at winners and losers thus far.
There are countless ways to measure success with the transfer portal. Leaning into the raw number of departures and arrivals is not one of them.
Consider the data for Arizona following a nine-win season under coach Brent Brennan. The Wildcats lost 21 players to the portal and gained 22, suggesting a break-even result.
The Hotline prefers to focus on the comings and goings that have unfolded at the Power Four level.
The Wildcats lost just one player to schools in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC that possess enough revenue-sharing and NIL dollars to lure high-level talent away from Arizona: cornerback Marquis Groves-Killebrew, who played sparingly last season for the Wildcats, is headed to Cal.
Meanwhile, Arizona added eight players from schools in the power conferences, according to the latest data published by 247Sports.
Of those, five carried four-star ratings (blue-chip status) either as high school prospects or transfers: cornerback Daylen Austin (from Oregon), tight end Cole Rusk (Illinois), receiver Rodney Gallagher (West Virginia), linebacker Matai Tagoa’i (USC) and receiver DJ Jordan (USC).
Eight power conference arrivals, one power conference departure — that’s a better reflection of Arizona’s work in the portal than 21 departures and 22 arrivals.
The other critical element to the Wildcats’ portal process: They did not lose quarterback Noah Fifita, who is set to return in 2026 as the greatest quarterback in school history. In that regard, Arizona stands apart from Big 12 peers that lost starting quarterbacks to the portal or expiration of eligibility.
Portal success is about raw numbers when a coaching change takes place and a mass exodus follows, leaving the school with no choice but to accept 40 or 50 new players.
Otherwise, the transfer game is won with shrewd talent evaluation and efficient deployment of dollars: Fill the obvious holes caused by attrition; upgrade when there’s no choice; and keep your offensive line intact to the greatest extent possible. (No position is more dependent on continuity.)
To this point in the offseason cycle — make no mistake: there will be more movement through the winter and spring — the Wildcats have played their hand exceedingly well.
Here’s a look at other transfer portal winners, and a few losers.
Loser: Washington. Jedd Fisch is smartly relying on high school recruiting to form the core of his roster on a year-to-year basis, so it’s not the paucity of incoming transfers (11) that should be worrisome. It’s the quality of the departed players combined with unfilled positions of need (e.g., defensive line and receiver). And to be clear: Even though quarterback Demond Williams never officially entered, the Hotline considers him someone who passed through the portal because of the potential for his situation to disrupt UW’s chemistry.
Winner: BYU. The Cougars have become a frequent portal winner in both football and basketball due to their first-rate NIL game. There were few impact departures this winter and a handful of major acquisitions, leading with linebacker Cade Uluave (from Cal), who instantly becomes one of the best in the Big 12, and tight end Walker Lyons (USC), who gives quarterback Bear Bachmeier another playmaker in the aerial game.
Loser: Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham is a sharp evaluator of talent, and we expect a slew of his 24 arrivals to make an immediate impact. But whenever you lose the No. 1 quarterback on the transfer market — Sam Leavitt is heading to LSU — there’s no way to fully rebalance the scales. If Cutter Boley (Kentucky) emerges as a first-rate replacement, the Hotline will tip our cap to the Sun Devils, admit the misread and move on.
Winner: Indiana. No explanation necessary, but we’ll offer one for your reading pleasure: The Hoosiers have signed quarterback Josh Hoover, who was better at TCU in 2025 than Fernando Mendoza was at Cal in 2024. And look what Curt Cignetti did with Mendoza.
Loser: Colorado. Over and above specific players, our skeptical view of the situation in Boulder is based on numbers. Deion Sanders continues to overhaul the roster with the desperation of a coach who took charge last week: He has 37 departures and 40 arrivals thus far. The constant reshuffling hurts cohesion and limits CU’s margin for error. The Buffaloes have little time for player development, which is vital to achieving consistent success.
Winner: Cal. As expected, first-year coach Tosh Lupoi is collecting talent — it’s what he does as well as any head coach, coordinator or assistant on the West Coast. His transfer class is ranked No. 1 in the ACC and No. 14 nationally by 247Sports thanks largely to five newcomers with four-star ratings. (More than half the 23 arrivals are from power conference schools.) But the primary reason we count the Bears as a winner is the player who didn’t enter the portal: quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Loser: Stanford. The portal era is a terrible match for Stanford regardless of the year or players involved. Thus far, the Cardinal has lost 11 players and brought in just four. The turnover includes quarterbacks Elijah Brown (outbound) and Davis Warren (inbound). Warren threw 233 passes for Michigan over three seasons and offers a morsel of hope to new coach Tavita Pritchard. But the Cardinal cannot compete at a high level without tweaking the way the university approaches the portal.
Winner: UCLA. Well, well, well — look who’s showing a dash of competency with roster decisions and resource allocation. The current count in Westwood is 24 departures and 39 arrivals, and we expect additional changes under first-year coach Bob Chesney. One offseason cycle isn’t enough for the Bruins to build a roster capable of competing for the Big Ten championship — UCLA isn’t Indiana, after all — but the situation could be far worse.
Loser: Utah. The Hotline doesn’t view the turnover as skeptically as all the Utah fans directing their vitriol at former coach Kyle Whittingham: Five players have followed Whittingham to Michigan, including star edge rusher John Henry Daley and elite cornerback Smith Snowden. We don’t doubt that several newcomers will make instant impacts for coach Morgan Scalley. But when rendering judgment, the Utes land ever-so-slightly on the wrong side of the ledger.
Winner: Washington State. As expected, the Cougars were hit hard by players opting to follow Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State, including edge rusher Isaac Terrell. But they regrouped impressively under rookie coach Kirby Moore based on both the quantity and quality of arrivals. (The newcomers include Jalil Tucker, who was the No. 9-ranked cornerback in the country when he signed with Oregon four years ago.) Moore has loaded up with receivers and edge rushers, two vital positions for the Cougars, who currently have the top-ranked transfer class in the rebuilt Pac-12.
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