Rams defense faces uphill battle against Bears, Caleb Williams

LOS ANGELES — Much has been made this week about whether or not the Rams’ offense — the highest scoring in the NFL — will travel for this weekend’s divisional matchup with the Chicago Bears. With temperatures expected to hover around 20 degrees at kickoff with winds up to 17 mph off Lake Michigan, would the Rams be able to move the ball and score the way they have been accustomed to in this 2025 season?

Then again, you have to think about the components of this offense. A quarterback in Matthew Stafford who played his first 12 seasons in the NFC North. A receiver in Davante Adams who spent his first eight years in Green Bay. Another in Puka Nacua who grew up in Utah. And a run game that has one of the highest success rates in NFL history.

“I’ve never worn sleeves in a game in my career. It is what it is,” Adams said. “It’s going to be freezing out there, but you just have to figure it out.”

Particularly against a Chicago defense allowing 29.3 points per game its last three contests, and 140.3 rushing yards per game this season, that shouldn’t be where the focus is for the Rams this week, weather or not.

Instead, weather or not, the group under the spotlight should be a Rams defense that has not looked the same since Week 13.

In that seven-game span, the Rams have dropped one of the NFL’s best defenses in terms of estimated points added (EPA) to 20th allowing 0.051 EPA per play. Most of this dropoff has been the result of explosive plays allowed, particularly in the pass game.

The first six of those seven games were played without recently-extended nickel corner Quentin Lake. The defensive captain returned for last week’s wild-card win over the Carolina Panthers, but he was still getting back up to speed after seven weeks on injured reserve.

He was targeted 11 times in the game, allowing eight receptions for 94 yards, plus a big defensive pass interference that ignited a Carolina touchdown drive. The secondary as a whole looked disoriented, allowing six passes of 15 yards or longer as the Panthers attacked crossing routes in the middle of the field.

“We had some plays we definitely would like to have back,” defensive coordinator Chris Shula said. “I think there were some explosives in the pass game and some unfortunate penalties that we would definitely like to have back. At the same time, we need to execute better and have the team score less.”

The Rams have allowed 20 points or more in five consecutive games, and now must prepare for a Chicago team averaging 28.3 points its last three games.

The Bears offense is in many ways a bad matchup for the Rams. The Ben Johnson-coached group thrives on outside zone runs, something the Rams have defended poorly all year. And the Bears like to take downfield shots, ranking fifth in the NFL in average depth of target at 9.31 yards.

And with a variety of pass catchers from possession guys like Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze to field stretchers D.J. Moore and Luther Burden, Johnson has his choice of how to attack a defense.

“I’ve studied him really closely from when he took over and started doing it in Detroit,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said of Johnson. “I think the guys that do the best job are the ones that you can see there’s a true understanding of what defenses are doing and … understand some of the percentages of what you’re doing situationally, and then being able to maximize his player skill sets.”

At the heart of everything Chicago does is quarterback Caleb Williams. The former USC Heisman winner is thriving in his first season under Johnson, combining the head coach’s timing-based tendencies with Williams’ improvisational skills and ability to extend plays with his legs.

This was never more apparent than in Chicago’s comeback victory over the Packers last week, in which Williams made an instantly-iconic jump pass on fourth-and-8, escaping pressure and lofting a ball up to Odunze to convert and keep alive one of three fourth-quarter touchdown drives.

It was the Bears’ seventh comeback victory this season. Those late-game heroics have meant no lead is safe against Chicago. Especially true against a Rams team that nearly lost its third game this season in which it led by multiple touchdowns against Carolina.

But that one word — nearly — is what the Rams have honed in on this week after finding a way to pull out the road victory, which they will need to do again to move on to the NFC championship game for the first time since the 2021 season.

“What I was proud of is that we found a way to finish,” McVay said. “There have been some instances that we’ve leaned into that we established leads and we weren’t able to sustain that momentum and make those critical plays to be the difference.”