Analysis: Iran is on the brink, again. This time might be different
The last 20 days in Iran have been deadly, violent, and unbearable to witness. The authoritarian regime in Tehran has indiscriminately targeted peaceful protesters with guns and live ammunition, cut off internet access, and imprisoned thousands.
At least 3,428 civilian protesters have been killed and thousands injured, according to Iran Human Rights, an Oslo-based NGO that monitors violence inside Iran. The death toll could be much higher.
The demonstrations were first sparked by bazaaris, or shopkeepers, in Tehran’s main bazaar — the financial hub of the country — in response to currency depreciation and soaring prices.
They quickly spread across major cities, and protesters’ demands broadened into calls for an end to nearly five decades of oppressive theocratic rule.
“In Iran’s political psychology, two factors are traditionally essential for a fundamental transformation: first, the bazaar must enter into sustained strikes and protests; second, the army or national armed forces must side with the people against the ruling power,” said Hussain Ehsani, a research fellow at the Turan Research Center, a Washington, D.C.–based think tank. “At this stage, the first condition has partially materialized. However, it remains unclear whether the bazaar strikes will continue or fade.”
Over the past three years, Iran’s currency has lost two-thirds of its value, and the price of basic food items has risen by 72 per cent since last year. Economic failures are not the sole drivers of the protests; shortages of water and energy, including electricity and gas in major cities, have also fuelled public anger in recent years.
U.S. President Donald Trump, after days of threatening to strike Iran if authorities continued killing their own people, took the matter to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday. Meanwhile, his administration placed several orchestrators of civilian killings on the sanctions list, including Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council.
Trump urged protesters this week to “take over your institutions” and said that “help is on its way,” offering little clarity on whether that assistance would be logistical support or a possible military strike.
The Islamic Republic has experienced several waves of mass protests over the years, from the widely known “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement following the killing of Mahsa Amini, to the Green Movement in 2009 after a fraudulent election, whose leaders remain under house arrest by Ayatollah Khamenei.
But this protest, although reportedly calmer and slower as of Friday, differs from previous ones.
“In 2009, it was still based on a disputed election. People were asking, ‘Where is my vote?’ They were still trying to operate within the framework of the Islamic Republic,” said Kaveh Shahrooz, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa. “The message has really radicalized since then. The closest comparison to what’s happening now is the 2022 ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ movement. In both cases, the demand is for the regime to be overthrown.”
Iran has long played a central role in regional instability by building proxy forces across the Middle East, from Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen. The Quds Force, a wing of the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has orchestrated the funding and training of militant groups in the region, including Hamas, the terrorist organization that massacred more than 1,000 Israelis on October 7, 2023.
After decades of shadow warfare, Israel and Iran confronted each other directly in a 12-day war. Israel killed several top Iranian military commanders and struck key military sites, while Iran launched barrages of missiles toward Israel. The conflict ended with U.S. strikes on Iran’s most deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility. These events have significantly weakened Iran both regionally and domestically.
“Iran’s regime was humiliated in the 12-day war. It no longer has the proxies it once relied on, so it can’t project strength,” said Shahroz. “It’s far more financially squeezed, and the economy is in freefall. Donald Trump is in the White House and appears, at least rhetorically, to be taking a much tougher line on Iran’s regime. That’s what makes this protest more significant than those we’ve seen in the past.”
Through diplomatic efforts led mainly by Arab leaders, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt, Trump has been lobbied to refrain from striking Iran. According to The New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also asked Trump to postpone any attack.
Amid fears of mass executions by the regime, Trump hinted that his sources indicated Iran had stopped killing protesters and that executions were stalled. Iran Human Rights reported that over 20,000 people have been imprisoned during the past 20 days of uprising.
As the threat of a U.S. attack has lulled, at least for now, the future of an already weakened Iran, both domestically and internationally, remains uncertain. While the collapse of the regime did not appear imminent on Friday, the question remains whether it can survive much longer.
“I think it really depends on U.S. involvement,” said Shahroz. “If the U.S. gets involved, you could very well see the regime collapse. But if it’s just ordinary people fighting, the regime may be able to hold on for another day. Still, these protests will flare up again. There’s simply no doubt.”
Analysts say defections within the security apparatus are key to regime collapse, but no such signs have emerged so far, despite claims by Iranian opposition figures in exile.
“The large number of protesters killed by security forces demonstrates the continued allegiance of the armed forces to Khamenei and the IRGC,” said Ehsani.
“First is street protests, which we have, but the other two things we don’t have,” said Kaveh. “Second is just the crippling of the economy through strikes, most importantly, the oil sector. We have not seen those. And third would be defections from the security services, and we haven’t seen that either.”