Iran’s regime has survived war, sanctions, and uprising. Environmental crises may bring it down.

The anti‑government protests sweeping across Iran, from major cities to rural towns, are fueled by anger over economic collapse and political repression. But beneath the headlines of currency devaluations and street clashes lies a deeper, more permanent driver of dissent: ecological calamity.

Decades of ignoring scientists, persecuting activists and greenlighting corrupt development schemes have triggered a water crisis so severe that President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that Tehran’s residents may eventually have to evacuate the capital city, which is sinking as dried-up aquifers give way.

The devastation extends far beyond Tehran. Lake Urmia, once one of the world’s largest salt lakes, has shriveled to less than 10 percent of its volume, while the iconic Zayandeh River has sat dry for years. Wildfires have ravaged the parched Hyrcanian forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site. In the oil-rich Khuzestan province, home to Iran’s Arab minority, state-led water diversion has devastated the local economy and inflamed ethnic grievances.

Iranians, and many experts, blame the government, one of the world’s most repressive regimes. 

Environmental issues tie “into all the other grievances that activists and citizens and protesters have over economic and political issues,” said Eric Lob, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Program and an associate professor at Florida International University. “It’s all interconnected.”

The human cost is staggering. Crumbling infrastructure, poorly designed irrigation systems, and overdrawn aquifers have left farmers unable to plant crops and cities forced to ration supplies. Tens of thousands of people, including children, die prematurely each year from severe air and water pollution. Water shortages and power outages have shuttered businesses and left ordinary Iranians “worried about whether they’ll have enough water for drinking, bathing, and cleaning,” Lob said. 

Water stress has also become a source of political contention and a tool of political control, he said. Ethnic minority regions on Iran’s periphery have seen their water supply diverted to central provinces dominated by the Persian majority, creating environmental “winners and losers” and deepening resentment.

In Khuzestan, for example, national government policies have diverted water from the Karun River to central plateau provinces, reinforcing perceptions that Tehran prioritizes politically connected agriculture and industrial interests over local needs. 

Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, pointed to recent protests over water access in the Sistan and Baluchestan province, where demonstrators in 2023 marched with signs reading “Sistan is thirsty for water, Sistan is thirsty for attention.” 

“These aren’t separate from the current uprising,” Roman said of past water protests. “They’re precursors. Economic and environmental grievances are inseparable when your tap runs dry and your crops die.”

Student groups have also identified Iran’s ecological emergencies as driving unrest.   

“Today, crises have piled up: poverty, inequality, class oppression, gender oppression, pressure on nations, water, and environmental crises. All are direct products of a corrupt and worn-out system,” student activists said in a December statement.

The current protests, which erupted in late December, are the largest since 2022-2023. The government has responded with a communication blackout, cutting off internet access nationwide, and violent crackdowns. Human rights organizations estimate thousands have been killed, and even more arrested. Iran has a history of executing protestors, often by public hanging.

Lob traced a direct line between today’s uprising and the regime’s historical environmental failures. 

Since the 1979 revolution, he said, the government has used rural development projects to increase political legitimacy and popular support — a process that gave rise to a “water mafia” within the military establishment and the construction of hundreds of dams across the country. 

“Organizations close to the government and military were able to get contracts for these projects,” Lob said. “The goal was power and profit-seeking over environmental protection and sustainability.”

This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Iran’s regime has survived war, sanctions, and uprising. Environmental crises may bring it down. on Jan 17, 2026.