A look at some wagering insights ahead of the unsurprising Indiana-Miami CFP title game

LAS VEGAS — At a Circa outlet June 22, I invested in a 25-to-1 ticket on Miami quarterback Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy.

Even if he doesn’t win that hardware, I reasoned in a one-person debate that must have amused passersby, Miami could still win the national championship. So I added a 45-1 title ticket on the Hurricanes.

Phil Steele calling Miami “a legitimate playoff contender,” in his magnificent preseason annual, helped buoy my position.

On Aug. 26 at the South Point, I landed on sportsbook director Chris Andrews’ conference odds, specifically +140 (or risk $100 to win $140) on a Big Ten squad winning the national title.

At that stage, Penn State had high marks. Plus, I’d get Ohio State and Michigan, the last two national champs, and Oregon, always a factor. Moreover, I’d get any other up-and-comer from that league.

Like, say, Indiana.

I returned Sept. 8 to find +150 Big Ten odds. I tripled down. By late November, that prop had a negative price, highlighting its late popularity.

On Dec. 8, I met with Andrews for a column. But exacta title odds, a day after the bracket unveiling, were not among the property’s wooden slots.

In those hectic pre-holiday days, which included heavy rodeo traffic, Andrews had forgotten about those exactas. He asked ace lieutenant Ashley to produce them.

For the added work, she aimed a mock fisheye at me.

Slight IU edge

I surveyed some of the smartest college-football figures I’m fortunate to know, and a narrow majority favors Indiana -8½ over the Hurricanes on Monday night in Miami Gardens, Florida.

It opened at around 7½, settling at 8½ at many books in Illinois, Nevada, Florida and across the country, hitting 9 at the South Point. Caesars posted 7½ on Thursday.

At the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), at its Circa studio downtown on Fremont Street, senior broadcaster/scribe Matt Youmans was heavy on Indiana -160 to beat Oregon in a semifinal.

He had also snagged a 10-1 Hoosiers title ticket along the way. For the finale, he again nabbed Indiana on the moneyline, at -300, to win outright before that price started climbing.

Youmans calls IU coach Curt Cignetti “diabolical,” but he expects a tight title game.

“Miami has talent and speed and is strong on both lines,” Youmans said. “Don’t expect a blowout, but also don’t want to bet against Cignetti. Hoosiers by seven to 10 points.”

Long Island handicapper Tom Barton views Indiana as a team for the ages.

“This looks like a historic team,” he said. “Dominant from start to finish, and if we didn’t have the name on the front of the jersey, they’d be getting more respect.”

He also had considered betting a Hurricanes team total under 21, but he laid off when it slid to 20.

“Miami doesn’t have the offense to keep pace, and Indiana has that blood-in-the-water mentality,” Barton said. “We’ll be talking about them for a long time. The Hoosiers win by 20.”

Well-known prognosticator Chris “The Bear” Fallica, now at Fox Sports, has tapped Miami, his alma mater, to win outright.

Affecting Mendoza

On the shores of Lake Jacksonville in East Texas, ’capper Paul Stone senses that some have been carried away by Indiana’s story. He places value on Miami.

“The Hoosiers needed late touchdowns to win at Iowa and Penn State, and neither was ranked at the time,” he said. “They’re really good, but they’re not invincible.”

Stone sees NFL-caliber talent on the Hurricanes’ roster, estimating that eight might be picked in April’s NFL Draft. Defensive end Akheem Mesidor and tackle Francis Mauigoa are first-round worthy.

Miami also has a national-high 47 sacks, so Stone expects Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. to get to Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

“If the Hurricanes can take Mendoza out of his comfort zone,” Stone said, “I think they have a real chance.”

He bolsters his Miami position by noting that it is 7-0, straight up and against the spread, against teams in the AP Top 25 at the time of their meeting and 7-0 in games with a single-digit spread, regardless of who is favored.

Also, as the betting underdog against Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Ohio State, the Canes are 3-0 ATS, and they won all three games.

Since he thinks Miami has a chance to beat Indiana outright, Stone recommends “splitting” a unit of action, with 60% on Miami +9 and 40% on the Hurricanes’ +290 moneyline.

Five-star advice

In the Dallas area, to clients, handicapper Sean Higgs gave out Indiana as a play in its last two playoff games. But he also faded Miami in all three of its postseason tilts, going 0-for-3.

He cited “coaching” for both tacks.

“The penalties,” Higgs said of Canes coach Mario Cristobal. “That is all on poor coaching.”

Miami was penalized 10 times for 74 yards, while Ole Miss had four for 34 yards in their semifinal. The Hoosiers averaged 26 penalty yards this season, second-lowest in the nation to Army’s 21. Miami ranked 89th at about 58.

The Hurricanes (13-2) are riding a seven-game winning streak, covering five of their last six. Indiana (15-0) has covered its previous four games.

“[Cignetti] is on another planet, compared to Miami,” Higgs said. “We see the [Miami] players’ immaturity with dumb penalties. My five-star best bet is the Indiana ‘Hoo Hoo’ Hoosiers.”

Grazie, Ashley

At the South Point on Wednesday, Dec. 10, those playoff-exacta sheets were available. I homed in on Indiana over Miami, at 30-1, to cover a gray area between my 45-1 Hurricanes return and those Big Ten ducats.

Also, I grabbed Miami over Indiana at 80-1, plus another Canes title ticket at 30-1.

For her trouble, I surprised Ashley with some chocolate donut holes.

I am golden, as I was before last season’s playoffs, when I took ND over Ohio State at 30-1, 25-1 on the Buckeyes over the Irish.

I had a few other tickets last year, as I do this season. When I connected Indiana and Miami on Dec. 10, for instance, I also tossed Texas Tech into that fray, just in case. There’s always excess fat.

Mostly, though, I had pinned the tail on another donkey, guaranteeing a profit for the 2025-26 college football portfolio.

I’ve been very public about how I navigate college and pro football, the main rudder being points-per-play (PPP) margins available at the outstanding TeamRankings database.

Access is free, and TR’s statistical menus are tremendous. Those PPP figures tell me all I need to know about how a team has been playing and how it’s running.

Going into last season’s playoffs, Notre Dame and Ohio State popped off my legal pages. I played out the brackets comparing each team’s seasonal and last three PPP margins, finally circling the Irish and Buckeyes.

Same as I did in early December, when I ended with Indiana and Miami. Oregon was hot, too, but would run into the Hoosiers.

Sometime this week, after the dust settles in Miami Gardens from the Hoosiers and Hurricanes, I’ll zip over to the South Point, where Ashley will receive something a bit grander than donut holes.