NFL picks: Bettors might have opportunity to exploit Bears’ habit of second-half comebacks

LAS VEGAS — At about 8:39 p.m. Saturday across Chicago, the timing was perfect to strike with a wager on the Bears.

The Packers had forged a 21-3 halftime lead at Soldier Field, and recent history was about to repeat itself. Just three weeks earlier, on the same stage, Green Bay held a 16-3 advantage before utterly collapsing, falling 22-16 in overtime.

On Saturday, the Bears followed the same script. Those hip to the atmosphere and proceedings during intermission could have nabbed anywhere from +800 to nearly 10-to-1 moneyline odds on the Bears to win outright.

An online DraftKings patron grabbed +875 odds, or risk $100 to win $875.

At the Green Valley Ranch sportsbook, Chicago native and longtime Southern California resident Phil Ioriatti licked his chops when he saw Bears -1 for the second half.

The Bears had to outscore the Packers by at least two points in the final 30 minutes. Ioriatti emptied his wallet of hundred-dollar bills, maybe 10, on that wager.

The Cardiac Bears answered the bell, as they have most of the season, to win 31-27. They improved to 8-4 in one-score games.

Forty-eight hours before kickoff, I nabbed +105 moneyline odds on the Bears beating the Packers. Fortunately, on Dec. 17, I secured a 28-1 title ticket on the Bears.

Those odds were 16-1 on Wednesday at DraftKings. In Vegas, they were 17-1 at Circa and the Westgate SuperBook, 14-1 at BetMGM.

Now, quarterback Matthew Stafford, with an injured index finger on his right (throwing) hand, and the Rams visit for a frigid divisional bout. He’s 3-3 in below-freezing games and 36-43 outdoors in his career.

As the Los Angeles Rams, they’ve dropped their last two at Soldier Field.

Incredibly, rookie Bears boss Ben Johnson is between 80-1 and 100-1 for Coach of the Year honors. I had thought the Bears would be tough next season, with a year of acclimation to Johnson and his schemes.

Instead, the impact has been immediate. Credit Johnson, who was coaxed out of the software industry by John Shoop, an offensive coordinator at North Carolina when Johnson was a backup quarterback.

Johnson had been a preseason favorite for that award at around +700. Then came the 0-2 start. It has been a fairy-tale season since.

The four remaining NFC teams resemble Ali, Foreman, Frazier and Norton, the 1970s heavyweights who staged epic 15-rounders.

Remaining foes had best beware of these rope-a-dope Bears.

Best bet

RAMS at BEARS

Time: 5:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.

Line: Rams by 3½. Total: 48½.

Records (overall/ATS): Rams 13-5/12-6; Bears 12-6/11-6-1.

Pick: Bears 26, Rams 17.

Play: Bears +3½.

How Miech’s plays fared

                    Last week   Overall

Best bet 0-1 7-12

Overall   3-3 128-142-5

7-point tease 5-1      196-77-2

Other plays

BILLS at BRONCOS

Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS 2.

Line: Pick ’em. Total: 47½.

Records (overall/ATS): Bills 13-5/10-8; Broncos 14-3/7-9-1.

Outlook: The Broncos are 17-5 lifetime in home playoff games, including 4-1 in their last five. Since 2021, their home-field advantage is in the top quarter of the league. The Bills are 2-5 in their last seven trips to the Mile High City. Bills QB Josh Allen is down to three receivers. We’ll take Broncos rookie RB RJ Harvey at home over Bills RB James Cook on the road.

Pick: Broncos 27, Bills 13.

Play: Broncos pick’ em.

49ERS at SEAHAWKS

Time: 7 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32.

Line: Seahawks by 7.  Total: 45½.

Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 13-5/12-6; Seahawks 14-3/13-4.

Outlook: Our math (25-21) and computer (29-20) models favor Seattle, which gets our attention. (Just know teasing that down to Seahawks even will get our money.) The 49ers will have an uphill climb if LT Trent Williams (hamstring) misses significant snaps again. Hawks get the win, not the cover.

Pick: Seahawks 27, 49ers 21.

Play: 49ers +7.

TEXANS at PATRIOTS

Time: 2 p.m. Sunday, ABC 7, ESPN.

Line: Patriots by 2½. Total: 44½.

Records (overall/ATS): Texans 13-5/10-8; Patriots 15-3/12-6.

Outlook: Only one of Houston’s last 16 foes has tallied at least 20 first downs. The Steelers had just 13 on Monday. The Texans yield an NFL-low 16.1 per game, and it’s even better (15.7) on the highway. The Patriots have seen nothing like this defense, which rates among the 1978 Steelers, ’85 Bears, 2000 Ravens and Titans and ’02 Buccaneers as the best of the best. Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn is the NFL’s top kicker, too.

Pick: Texans 24, Patriots 20.

Play: Texans +2½.