Stagnating matric maths pass rate a sobering reality

The decline in the National Senior Certificate (NSC) matric maths pass rate is not the result of a sudden collapse in teaching quality, but the outcome of long-standing weaknesses in the schooling system that begin in the early grades, say education experts.

In 2025, the maths pass rate declined from 69% to 64%. The number of distinctions attained for the subject followed a similar pattern, falling sharply from 9 752 in 2024 to 4 897 in 2025.

This comes against the backdrop of low matric maths participation. Of the 901 790 matric candidates, only 34% took up maths, while most opted for mathematics literacy.  

“A stagnating pass rate points to several systemic pressures relating to learning gaps accumulated over time, particularly from earlier grades, which matric interventions alone cannot fix,” said Kat Yassim, the head of the education, leadership and management department at the University of Johannesburg.

Teacher shortages and uneven subject expertise, especially in gateway subjects such as maths, had contributed to lower learner performance, said Yassim. 

Curriculum and assessment misalignment, where learners coped with rote learning but struggled with application and higher-order thinking, coupled with load-shedding, food insecurity and mental health challenges, directly affected learning, she added.

“This reinforces the need to shift focus earlier in the system, especially in the Foundation and Intermediate Phases, rather than relying on last-minute matric rescue strategies,” said Yassim. 

Accounting also declined — from 81% to 78% — while physical science increased marginally — from 76% to 77%. However, physical science distinctions dropped from 5 680 to 3 865. Fewer distinctions were also recorded for accounting.

In 2024, the number of candidates registered for maths dropped by 12 338 to 255 762, compared with 268 100 in 2023. Physical science enrolments declined by nearly 7 000, while life sciences enrolments fell by more than 5 850 year on year.

“We would like to think it’s something that happened recently,” said Elizabeth Henning, chair of the South African Research Chairs Initiative .

Henning specialises in integrated studies of learning, language, maths and science in primary schools, with a focus on early-grade reading, maths and robotics. 

She said poor matric maths outcomes must be understood as the cumulative effect of learning gaps that started as early as Grade 1.

“It’s not that teachers were worse in 2025; the problem goes a long way from grade 1 up to grade 12. What you do in grade 12 is a compilation of what you do in grade 1,” said Henning, adding that weak procedural knowledge in the early years had a direct impact on learners’ ability to perform in high-stakes examinations later on.

The growing tendency among learners to avoid pure maths in favour of mathematical literacy reflected deep-seated anxiety about the subject, Henning said, adding that restoring confidence and enjoyment in mathematics learning was critical.

“It’s not easy to change attitudes about mathematics and address young people’s fears,” she said.

The system also needed to adopt more appropriate and engaging teaching methods, including the use of maths animation and stronger teacher-learner dialogue, to simplify complex concepts and rebuild learners’ confidence, Henning said.

Despite the overall matric pass rate improving to 88% in 2025, the lower maths pass rate was a dampener.

Announcing the results, Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube highlighted structural challenges facing the system. 

She acknowledged that the department, which she has headed since mid 2024, should strengthen foundational skills earlier in the schooling system if more learners were to succeed in gateway subjects such as maths and physical science.

Departmental interventions included learners writing the country’s first bilingual grade 4 assessments in maths and natural science as part of the expansion of mother tongue-based bilingual education.

“A healthy system must grow the number of learners taking mathematics and physical science without sacrificing quality. That is why our next phase pairs higher participation with stronger support — better materials, targeted teacher development and earlier intervention so learners arrive in these subjects ready to succeed,” said Gwarube.

She said the system was not expanding fast enough in subjects that shaped access to further study, scarce skills and economic participation, describing that as “the quality challenge of the next phase”.

According to the 2025 NSC examination report, the department of planning, monitoring and evaluation has set national targets for the number of grade 12 learners achieving marks in maths and physical science required by faculties such as engineering, commerce and medicine.

While earlier targets focused on achieving at least 50% in the subjects, the threshold was raised to 60% in the 2019 to 2024 medium-term strategic framework and retained in the 2024 to 2029 medium-term development plan. The 50%, 60% and, sometimes, 70% thresholds remained significant, as they were used by universities depending on institution and faculty, the report said.

“The reduction in the number of mathematics achievers with a mark of 60% between 2024 and 2025 of just over 10 000 is obviously striking. It is likely that this is largely driven by slightly varying difficulty in the examination papers across years,” it said.

The report added that the decline was more pronounced in less advantaged parts of the country. High-level maths achievers declined by 28% in quintile 1 schools — public schools that serve the poorest communities and receive the highest level of government funding per learner — compared with 18% in quintile 4 and 5 schools, with the steepest declines recorded in Limpopo (33%) and the Eastern Cape (32%).

This was probably because more learners in those provinces were clustered around the 60% threshold and narrowly missed it in a more demanding examination year, the report said, noting that universities would need to take that into account in their admissions processes.

It emphasised that there was no clear evidence that maths skills themselves were deteriorating, pointing to improved Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) Grade 9 results between 2019 and 2023.

“A large part of the challenge is to increase the number of high-achieving black African and coloured mathematics candidates in the examinations. This is essential if South Africa is to see a more representative workforce in areas such as accounting and engineering,” said the report.

The 88% matric pass rate was encouraging on the surface and reflected improved system efficiency, better learner support and stronger monitoring of curriculum coverage, said Yassim. 

“However, pass rates alone do not tell the full story about the health of the basic education system. 

“We must interrogate what level learners are passing at, how many qualify for bachelor-level study, and how many ultimately transition into post-school education or meaningful work,” she said. 

She added that a strong system was not measured only by throughput, but by depth of learning, skills readiness and successful post-school pathways.

Makashule Gana, a Rise Mzansi MP and its chief whip, said South Africa had a ratio of one engineer for every 3 000 people, compared with an average of one for every 600 to 800 people in other developing countries.

“While there has been a gradual improvement over the years in the number of learners who achieve 50% or more in mathematics and science, the basic education system is not producing enough matriculants with strong problem-solving, critical thinking, literacy and numeracy skills, who can go on to higher education, training or apprenticeships,” said Gana.

Lerato Ngobeni, an ActionSA MP and its chief whip, said the pass rate masked deeper systemic failures.

“While (the) government celebrates an official matric pass rate of 88%, ActionSA’s analysis shows that the ‘real’ matric pass rate tells a far more sobering story. Using the accepted cohort methodology — measuring how many learners passed matric relative to the 1.14 million learners who entered grade 10 in 2023 — the effective completion rate falls to 57.7%,” said Ngobeni.

She said the gap reflected a system that continued to lose learners through dropout, repetition and disengagement long before they reached the examination hall.

“Matric outcomes are not simply an education milestone — they are an early indicator of the country’s future economic capacity, labour force potential and broader societal stability,” said Investec Wealth & Investment’s Osagyefo Mazwai.

Without stronger foundations in maths and science, Mazwai warned, South Africa risked entrenching youth unemployment and undermining long-term economic growth, despite high levels of public spending on education.

Yassim said the low participation in pure maths — 34% — was a structural concern because it limited access to STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) careers and high-impact fields, which required changing the narrative around maths from a subject for the brighter students to a skill that could be developed with the right support.

That included clear post-school incentives, showing learners and parents how maths opened doors to bursaries, careers and economic mobility, she said. 

“Ultimately, mathematics participation will increase only if learners experience confidence, relevance and quality teaching long before they reach grade 12,” said Yassim.