Cracketology: Marquette-Free Zone
Photo by Wendell Cruz | Imagn Images
While this is a Marquette blog, I personally ruled out Marquette's at-large hopes with the loss to Maryland. I tried to keep hope alive but the 5-6 non-con record meant Marquette needed to go 15-5 in Big East play just to get on the bubble, and their 1-6 conference record make that an impossibility. Let's move on to some early takeaways from our first seed list and bracket of the year.
Talent Overload at the Top
While the 1-seeds (Arizona, UConn, Michigan, Duke) were all clearly deserving, in any other year you could make a case for anyone through #10 overall Vanderbilt to be a 1-seed in mid-January. This is a loaded season with immense talent at the top of the sport. Every team on the top three seed-lines are viable national title contenders given what they've already accomplished.
This isn't just borne out by the eye test but by the numbers as well. Last year was widely regarded as one of the strongest in recent memory because of the strength of the one-seeds, but the top of the sport is almost undeniably better and deeper this year than last. Compare the number of elite teams in terms of kenpom's Adjusted EM (measures team efficiency) and T-Rank's WAB (measures resume quality). There are simply more elite teams this year than there have been in any season since COVID, and generally speaking as many teams this year at the top of the sport as there were the past 4 years combined.
Using metric comparisons, the 2-seeds and 3-seeds of this year look more like the 1-seeds if they'd had these seasons in any of the previous four years. The combination of what is the strongest freshmen class in years along with more effective transfer portal usage has really strengthened the sport. In addition, teams are scheduling better, which has led to a more entertaining regular slate of games. You could very well argue the sport has never been better, and it should make for an incredible tournament.
Big East Hoping for Five Bids
Today we have 4 Big East teams in the field. 1-seed UConn, 6-seed Villanova, 8-seed St. John's, and 10-seed Seton Hall. While Creighton isn't in our first eight teams out, they were considered and could make a push toward a tourney bid. The Jays have been better since the start of league play and with home games against UConn, Villanova, and Seton Hall still to come, there are some resume opportunities as long as they don't drop any games that would really hurt them (surviving Georgetown at home in overtime was a must-win).
If I was setting an over-under number today for the league, it would be 3.5 bids, but there is a real possibility at 5. The only chance at more than that would be for one of Xavier, Butler, Georgetown, DePaul, Providence, or Marquette to win the Big East tournament. None of those teams look to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid based on how they've played so far this season.
Interesting Bubble Names
It isn't just seeing New Mexico and George Mason on the right side of the bubble, but Miami of Ohio would have a real shot if they don't win the MAC based on their volume of wins and WAB. On the outside, however, it's a lot of high-majors. In addition, just three at-large bids are projected to go to teams outside the Power 5 leagues (those two and 8-seed Saint Mary's). The power conference takeover is here, and the days of 4-5 bids from leagues like the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, even with the Pac-12 (temporarily) dissolved, seem to be a thing of the past.
Here's the Seed List and Bracket:
Multibid Leagues
ACC: 10
SEC: 10
Big 10: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Mountain West: 2
WCC: 2