Democrat takeover fears rise as GOP clings to slim House majority
Tense scenes played out in the House of Representatives on Tuesday night as a group of moderate Republicans took a stand against a trio of GOP-led labor rule bills.
One of those bills failed to pass, while the other two were quickly scuttled to avoid the same fate — an embarrassing blow to House Republican leadership and the majority of GOP lawmakers who supported them.
It's an example of a situation that has been growing increasingly common in Congress' lower chamber as Republicans wrestle with a party-line majority of anywhere between three and one vote, depending on attendance that day.
"We’ve got simple bills like this that should be a no-brainer, and we’ve got several moderate Rs that are going to kill the bill," Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., told Fox News Digital on the sidelines just before the first bill failed. "What I foresee, and you’re seeing it in appropriations bills, they don’t care about guys like me … they’re just working with the Democrats to pass them."
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Several Republicans who spoke with Fox News Digital this week said there's growing concern about Democrats growing their number of legislative victories despite Republicans holding the gavel — or potentially using their numbers to take over the agenda.
As Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., put to reporters last week, "We are one flu season away from losing the majority."
Steube said he did not believe Democrats could actually take the speaker's gavel but conceded the situation was tenuous. He pointed to the recent sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif., as an example.
"You’re a heart attack and a car accident away from the majority. There’s people in our conference that are not young people. I mean, you saw what just happened with LaMalfa. In my opinion, he was young, 65. We have people who are much older in the conference," he said Tuesday night.
"Now, Democrats couldn’t take over the gavel, but like, what you’re seeing here, you’ve got attendance issues, you’ve got seven Republicans voting with the Democrats. You lose more than two, you’re toast."
Despite that, however, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., denied there was a fight for the agenda on Tuesday night.
"We're totally in control of the House," he told reporters.
He added, however, that leaders were watching attendance closely.
"They'd better be here," Johnson said of his members. "I told everybody, and not in jest, I said, no adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here."
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It comes after several recent incidents that have put their tenuous grasp on the House in perspective for Republicans.
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., abruptly resigned earlier this year after publicly falling out with President Donald Trump. Rep. Jim Baird, R-Ind., returned on Tuesday badly bruised from a car accident that he spent the week prior recovering from.
And just this week, Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., said he is home recovering from major brain surgery. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., is in his district caring for his ill wife.
Beyond conversations about their own mortality, it's also spurred discussion among some Republicans about what unexpected life events could do to their majority.
"The margins are really, really close. A few of us were in a car the other day, driving … if that became an accident, that would have tipped the scale. So I think it’s a concern to be vigilant, prudent, and just understand that the consequences of an accident may have, you know, consequences outside of the norm," Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., told Fox News Digital.
He also warned his fellow Republicans, as a former Navy SEAL, to be mindful of unsafe situations.
"Say some evil mind wants to change the majority in the House — we don’t have the same protection that the president does. And that’s why I say just remain vigilant," Zinke said. "I have faith that we’ll continue, but I think it should be a concern, because it’s a big deal to change power outside of a normal election cycle."
One House Republican speaking to Fox News Digital anonymously pointed out that there appeared to be more Democrats than Republicans voting on a slate of bills — albeit, relatively uncontroversial ones — on Monday night.
"I’d guess they’re terrified," the lawmaker said of GOP leaders on Tuesday. "Sometimes life happens — look at Derrick Van Orden … car accidents, COVID, or flu. I mean, I don’t think we had the majority last night."
"They’re going to have to get smart about the calendar, probably break some arms," that GOP lawmaker said. "It’s kind of unprecedented. I don’t know how it would work. Say, unfortunately, someone else passed. You can’t fix that. You may have to wait a few months. You might have to strip committees. There’s a whole lot of uncharted waters to deal with."
There are also more than a dozen GOP lawmakers running for higher office — something that could also spur absences, as South Carolina gubernatorial candidate Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., pointed out.
She dismissed fears of Democrats taking over the agenda, however.
"Certainly there’s concern with the slim majority. There are many of us that are running for higher office as well, and as the debate season gets underway, there’s going to be members that miss votes to make debates and to be campaigning," Mace said.
Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., told Fox News Digital he was not worried about Democrats taking over the floor but conceded there was tension over the slim margins for Republicans.
"I know they’re carefully watching attendance," Ogles said. "I think the joke is that no two members should travel together at this point."
But not all House Republicans are agonizing over how the politics of the situation are playing out.
One moderate GOP lawmaker who spoke with Fox News Digital anonymously said the thin majority could save Republicans in the middle from taking politically perilous votes.
"It gives folks in the center a little more juice on preventing bills from coming to the floor," they said.
An example they used is Thursday morning's expected vote on a bill dealing with the joint-employer labor rule, telling Fox News Digital, "There’s an active effort among pro-labor Republicans to block that from coming to the floor, and we can only really get that done in our majority."