Data expert outlines uncomfortable Liverpool trend emerging

Liverpool’s position in the Premier League table tells only part of the story when the underlying numbers are taken into account.

New analysis from BBC Football Data Analyst Chris Collinson offers a wider view of how teams are performing beneath the surface, using expected goals to predict how the season is likely to unfold.

With more than half the campaign gone, Collinson argues that xG difference remains one of the strongest indicators of long-term success, explaining that “the higher a team’s xG difference – the more they dominate games – the more chance they have of success”.

Liverpool currently sit fourth with 35 points after 21 games, some distance behind Arsenal at the summit, but still firmly in the fight for Champions League qualification.

What BBC xG data says about Liverpool performance levels

The BBC analysis places us among a group battling for the remaining Champions League places, alongside Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea.

Collinson’s findings suggest that, if teams continue performing at their current underlying levels, those final spots will remain tightly contested rather than decided early.

That aligns with what we are seeing on the pitch, where results have often come through moments of individual quality rather than sustained dominance.

The data also reinforces why this season feels more demanding than last year’s title-winning campaign under Arne Slot.

Speaking exclusively to Empire of the Kop, Roddy Collins recently said, “It’s like a boxer going back to the well too often,” when discussing the physical and mental load on core players such as Mo Salah and Virgil van Dijk.

Those comments sit neatly alongside the xG picture, which shows Liverpool no longer overwhelming opponents in the same way.

Why Liverpool season feels different under Slot

Former Arsenal defender Sol Campbell has also attempted to explain why this campaign has been more turbulent.

“It was almost too easy the first season,” he said, adding that “this season, they have to work for it”.

That assessment is supported by the numbers, which suggest Arsenal currently have the strongest xG difference in the league and are therefore statistically best placed for the title.

Collinson notes that the team with the highest xG difference has won the Premier League in three of the past four seasons, with Manchester City’s 2023-24 triumph the only recent exception.

For Liverpool, the task is clear rather than terminal.

Underlying metrics indicate we remain competitive at the top end, even if repeating last season’s dominance was always unlikely.

The challenge now is turning those performances into consistent results as the margins tighten.

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