War Only Helps Iran’s Leaders

If President Donald Trump cares in the slightest about Iranian protestors — and our country — he must not attack or threaten to attack Iran.

Doing so would be stupid and dangerous. It would likely strengthen Iran’s repressive leaders. It would risk the lives of U.S. troops and citizens and others throughout the region in what could easily become another endless, extraordinarily costly, and deeply unpopular war.

Iran has experienced unprecedented protests in recent days. Iran’s leaders have reacted by killing hundreds, perhapsthousands. Trump has responded by repeatedly threatening to attack Iran. “The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters recently.

This is counterproductive, to say the least.

Threatening to attack Iran, let alone launching actual attacks, makes it all too easy for Iran’s leaders to portray protestors as “terrorists” and agents of a U.S.-Israeli regime change operation. Which makes it easier for Iran’s leaders to attack, arrest, and kill protestors.

Military force may seem appealing, but experts warn that attacking Iran is likely to unite its military, many of its people, and the regime against the external threat — just as many rallied around nationalist sentiment during Israeli and U.S. attacks during the war last June.

In addition to killing, injuring, and displacing untold numbers of Iranians, attacking Iran would gravely endanger U.S. troops and citizens, Israelis (and Palestinians occupied by Israel), and others in the region. Iran’s leaders have warned they will retaliateagainst any U.S. or Israeli attacks and may launch preemptive attacks on U.S. bases in the region and Israel.

Given the Iranian government’s increasing desperation in the face of existential threats to its rule, any retaliation is likely to be far more violent and unrestrained than Iran’s military response during last year’s U.S.-Israeli attacks.

A U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran could have even more catastrophic consequences. The fall or partial fall of the ruling regime risks triggering an Iranian civil war, a wider Middle East war involving Iranian allies, and uncontrollable violence like that seen after the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. Hundreds of thousands could be killed and injured. Millions could be displaced, fleeing the country just as millions fled the Syrian civil war.

Libya is another sad example of how using military force to supposedly support regime opponents can trigger unintended, catastrophic consequences: U.S. and European military attacks against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 helped overthrow and kill Gaddafi only to produce an ongoing civil war that has caused what one UN official called “incalculable”civilian harm. Thousands have been killed. More than a million have been displaced. Libya remains a failed state to this day.

While President Trump may feel dangerously emboldened after invading Venezuela and kidnapping Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in violation of international law, a clear majority of the country opposes using U.S. military power in this way. At least two-thirds know the president needs approval from Congress to take any further military action against Venezuela.

Some Congress members are already rightly demanding Trump get Congressional authorization to attack Iran, just as they aredemanding Trump obtain Congress’s approval to wage war against Venezuela.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump seemed to understand that waging war is both stupid and bad politics in a country where people are sick of endless wars and profoundly opposed to using the military offensively. In no less than his inaugural address, he promised to “stop wars” rather than start them.

If Trump again resorts to war in Iran, he will likely further undermine his support at home while supporting Iran’s leaders and risking another catastrophic endless war. The best way to support protestors and avoid harming the United States, the region, and the world is through negotiations and diplomacy, not military force.

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