How Could the Mets Finish the Offseason? Part 2

In part 1, we discussed the top-tier market for hitters and how the Mets are positioned very well. In light of recent events, this has changed fairly significantly. Therefore, Part 2 will focus on what has changed, whether anything deeper is at play, and analyze the moves from a baseball perspective, and, most importantly, how it all impacts the Mets’ offseason.

For the first time in a while, there is some actual baseball news to review and break down. Thursday, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal failed to come to terms on a contract in Skubal’s final year of team control.  Mike Hazen and the Diamondbacks decided to stop listening to offers on Ketel Marte.  The Yankees and Cody Bellinger are “at an impasse” in contract talks. The Cubs signed Alex Bregman to a 5 year $175M contract. And finally, it looks like the Blue Jays and Mets could be in a bidding war for Kyle Tucker.

Starting with Skubal and the Tigers, whom unsurprinsgly could not come to terms, yet what shocked many was the gulf between the two sides. Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in the world, asked for $32M and the Tigers offered $19M.  Both sides’ figures were unexpected, the Tigers for just how conservative they were and Skubal and Boras for how brazen.  The fact remains that in a player’s final year of arbitration eligibility, he can be compared not only to similar arbitration cases, but also to similar free agents.  In a theoretical world where Tarik Skubal, coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards, was freely available, but only on a one-year contract, he would be a lock to make at least $40M and encroach upon $50M.  Internalizing that makes the $32M Boras Corp. is seeking seem relatively low and the $19M the Tigers offered ridiculous, bordering on offensive.

Before Thursday, the odds of the Tigers moving Skubal were low; now it seems possible, bordering on likely, but not yet inevitable.  The fact that, within the next 24 hours, Hazen publicly stated that the D-Backs are moving forward with Marte as a part of their roster makes even more sense in its aftermath. Both the Mets and the Red Sox, two of the few teams rumored to be engaged in trade talks with the D-Backs for Marte, would almost assuredly prefer to keep their key assets for a Skubal trade, rendering a Marte trade unlikely until the Skubal situation concludes.

The impact a player like Skubal becoming available has on the market not only affects big-market teams like the Mets, but also affects Scott Boras, his agent. This can be seen not only in Bregman’s signing almost immediately after Skubal’s now-uncertain future with the Tigers, but also in a plan to wrap up Bellinger in a similar hasty yet effective fashion. The news that broke indicated the Yankees’ lack of intent to give Bellinger what the Cubs gave Bregman. Olney basically confirmed our suspicions, as well as other reports from last week, that the Yankees offered Bellinger the same deal Schwarber signed with the Phillies, but are unwilling to go to more years, a higher AAV or both.

Leaking this to the media can directly impact a team like the Mets or the Blue Jays and their strategy for the rest of the offseason. The Blue Jays, who, with Bregman off the market, now have to compete directly with the Philies over Bo Bichette, face a tough decision. They have yet to progress with Kyle Tucker and may now see an opening to pivot to Bellinger at a particular price point.  Considering where the Blue Jays are with their roster construction and with two impending free agent outfielders, may open their eyes to Bellinger, who can play centerfield, as the best option for them.

While the paradigm I laid out in Part 1 of the series, which basically ensured the Mets land a star hitter, has all but collapsed. As they now face an upward battle as the Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox remain the frontrunners for Bellinger, Bichette and Tucker. All the while, if the price on one starts to tumble, they’ll also have the Dodgers to contend with. Yet, if Skubal truly does become available, or if he already is, the Mets will be hard to beat, as they boast a stronger farm system than the Dodgers and can go over $400M to lock him up long-term.

Another interesting angle to consider here is the potential of a lockout next offseason. What many in the industry see as an inevitability, given the mistrust that has been brewing for years between the Owners and MLBPA, a lockout could completely undermine next offseason’s free agent class, a class headlined by none other than Skubal. In Boras’ unceasing attempts to continuously smash previous contract records, Skubal and he may now see this offseason as the better bet to secure both the highest AAV and the largest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

With a clear pivot toward Skubal, whether as a way to jump-start this winter or to set the table longer term for his top client, the last few days have jolted what had been a slow-burn offseason. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees can all feel it now, and that’s by design. When the game’s most powerful agent steps into the spotlight, Steve Cohen is rarely far from the plot, often serving as the leverage point that helps push the market toward record-setting territory for the true elite.

The Mets, on the other hand, are currently and will continue to be a dominant background force operating behind the scenes this offseason. While it may be harder than before to see a path for them landing one of Bellinger, Tucker or Bichette, they are an ideal partner for Skubal, Boras and the Tigers. Still, I would not count them out on Tucker or Bellinger, albeit at 5 years and $175M, I too would pass on Bellinger.

In Part 3, we will continue discussing the rest of the pitching market and how Skubal impacts it as well.

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