A tiny but mighty homestand on deck for Stanford men’s basketball

This week marks the start to a consequential homestand for men’s basketball that will surely influence whether or not Stanford (13-4, 2-2 ACC) gets invited to The Big Dance in a few months. 

The three-game set of conference play begins at Maples Pavilion Wednesday night against No. 14 North Carolina (14-2, 2-1 ACC). The other two games will feature battles against No. 6 Duke (15-1, 4-0 ACC), who sit at the top of the conference standings, on Saturday afternoon and rival Cal (13-4, 1-3 ACC) the following Saturday.

The Cardinal return from a split road trip to Virginia with momentum and a growing resume of impressive victories as Stanford owns ACC wins over ranked Louisville and Virginia Tech. Stanford has also won three consecutive ranked games at home dating back to last season, a streak that has turned Maples into a more intimidating venue for visiting teams than it has in past seasons.

Freshman guard Ebuka Okorie has been the headline all season, but particularly on the team’s recent road trip. Okorie ranks eighth nationally in scoring at 22.1 points per game, and he has turned late-game chaos into something Stanford can count on. In last week’s win at Virginia Tech, Stanford trailed by 12 with 2:18 left before closing on a 14-1 run, capped by Okorie’s go-ahead three-pointer with 3.3 seconds remaining in a 69-68 escape.

Okorie’s production is directly tied to a clear winning formula: the Cardinal are undefeated this season when he reaches 20 points and when he shoots 40% or better from the field. That kind of dependency can be risky against North Carolina as their priority will be to contain the freshman, but it also gives Stanford a clear path to pulling off their biggest upset this season — especially at home, where the Cardinal have already shown they can rise to the moment against ranked opponents.

North Carolina arrives with plenty of its own star power and a strong defensive identity. The Tar Heels, however, have only strayed away from Smith Center a few times this season with their only road results being a win over Kentucky (10-6, 1-2 SEC) and a loss at SMU (12-4, 1-2 ACC). Whether on the road or at home, freshman forward Caleb Wilson has driven much of the offense, leading North Carolina in scoring and rebounding, among other categories, and his 19.5 points per game are on pace to challenge the school’s freshman scoring record.

The matchup also brings a bit of recent history that Stanford fans may remember quite vividly. The Cardinal trail the all-time series 1-13, but that lone win came last season in Chapel Hill, when Jaylen Blakes hit a game-winning jumper with 0.9 seconds left. Wednesday marks the 15th meeting between the programs and just the third time they have played at Maples.

Of course, the homestand won’t get easier after Wednesday. Stanford turns around to face the Blue Devils at 3 p.m. Saturday, a game that figures to draw one of the biggest crowds Maples has seen in years. The Cardinal are 2-2 in all-time meetings against Duke, but have lost the last two games, including getting blown out 106-70 last year. Stanford’s last win against Duke came in 2000, although they have never won a game at home with both wins occurring at neutral locations.

Then comes the rivalry game. Cal visits Maples on Jan. 24 for a 5 p.m. tip-off. Stanford has won six straight home games against the Golden Bears and five straight overall. With three games in 11 days — two against top-15 opponents — Stanford’s March Madness outlook could look meaningfully different by the time they head out for their next road trip.

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