Big 12 MBB power rankings: Schedule edge goes to Iowa State as five teams begin to separate
Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition can be found here.)
They lead the Big 12 contingent in the AP poll, the efficiency metrics, the NET rankings and the NCAA Tournament projections. All the data indicate Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State and Texas Tech are a level better than the rest of the conference.
But within the quintet at the top, all is not equal.
For example: the schedules. Texas Tech and BYU were dealt the worst hands; Iowa State, the best. And you don’t need an algorithm to figure it out.
The Red Raiders and Cougars play more games against other members of the top tier than Arizona, Houston and Iowa State. (The Cyclones play the fewest.)
Here’s the breakdown, with home/road differentiation:
Arizona
Total: 5
Home: Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa State
Road: BYU, Houston
BYU
Total: 6
Home: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech
Road: Texas Tech, Arizona
Houston
Total: 5
Home: Texas Tech (win), Arizona
Road: Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa State
Iowa State
Total: 4
Home: Houston, Texas Tech
Road: BYU, Arizona
Texas Tech
Total: 6
Home: Houston, BYU
Road: Houston (loss), Arizona, Iowa State, BYU
Key points:
— No team in any conference faces a tougher stretch than Arizona’s five-game flurry in the middle of February. It starts at Kansas and ends at Baylor (not exactly easy) and features a triple-whammy in the middle: Texas Tech (home), BYU (home) and Houston (road). The gauntlet should have the Wildcats ready for March … in the NBA.
— In addition to playing the fewest number of games against the rest of the group, Iowa State’s first matchup doesn’t come until Feb. 16, when the Cyclones host Houston. They could be 25-0 by that point.
— Texas Tech is the only team that plays each of the other four on the road. What’s more, the Red Raiders visit Ames and Provo on the final two Saturdays of the regular season. Making up any lost ground during the stretch run will be immensely difficult.
— The Big 12 seemingly took great care to backload its conference schedule for February, when college basketball takes center stage. Of the 13 matchups within the quintet, eight come after the Super Bowl (Feb. 8).
And that total doesn’t include two Arizona-Kansas duels that were expected to carry high stakes — and still could.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (16-0/3-0)
Results: beat Kansas State 101-76, won at TCU 86-73
NET ranking: No. 2
Comment: Looking for a potential Achilles heel with the undefeated Wildcats? We wonder if the frontcourt is athletic enough to properly defend against the varied styles of play that could surface in the NCAAs, particularly when Ivan Kharchenkov and Mo Krivas are on the court together. (Previous: 1)
2. Iowa State (16-0/3-0)
Results: won at Baylor 70-60, beat Oklahoma State 83-71
NET ranking: No. 3
Comment: How times have changed: We would be mildly surprised if the Cyclones lose Saturday in Allen Fieldhouse, where Kansas is a poor imitation of its prior self. (Previous: 2)
3. Houston (15-1/3-0)
Results: beat Texas Tech 69-65, won at Baylor 77-55
NET ranking: No. 12
Comment: It’s easy to spot the cause for concern in March: The Cougars are 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per the Pomeroy Ratings. Can they score enough to survive a tight game in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight? (Previous: 3)
4. Texas Tech (12-4/2-1)
Results: lost at Houston 69-65, won at Colorado 73-71
NET ranking: No. 19
Comment: Don’t be fooled by the right side of the ledger: The four losses are to No. 5 Purdue, No. 7 Houston, No. 13 Illinois and No. 17 Arkansas. Put another way: The Red Raiders are undefeated against the bottom 348 teams in Division I. (Previous: 4)
5. BYU (15-1/3-0)
Results: beat Arizona State 104-76, won at Utah 89-84
NET ranking: No. 9
Comment: The Cougars are the lowest-ranked one-loss team in the AP Top 25, but the lack of respect isn’t quite at the level we often witness in football: There are no two-loss teams above them. (Previous: 5)
6. UCF (13-2/2-1)
Results: lost at Oklahoma State 87-76, beat Cincinnati 73-72
NET ranking: No. 37
Comment: If ever a split was cause for concern, it’s losing in Stillwater by double digits and edging Cincinnati at home. And the schedule is about to get vastly more difficult for the Knights. (Previous: 7)
7. TCU (11-5/1-2)
Results: lost at Kansas 104-100 (OT) and to Arizona 86-73
NET ranking: No. 42
Comment: The Horned Frogs are one of the Big 12’s bubble sitters: the collection of teams that will determine whether Selection Sunday is a mild letdown or cause for celebration. UCF belongs in the group, as well. Same with Baylor and Oklahoma State. (Previous: 6)
8. Colorado (12-4/2-1)
Results: beat Utah 85-73, lost to Texas Tech 73-71
NET ranking: No. 69
Comment: All wins count the same but some are less meaningful than others. Victories over Utah belong in a separate category we like to call: OK, whatever. (Previous: 10)
9. Kansas (11-5/1-2)
Results: beat TCU 104-100 (OT), lost at West Virginia 86-75
NET ranking: No. 21
Comment: You know how SEC football has lost its advantage now that everyone can pay players legally through revenue sharing and NIL? Welp … (Previous: 8)
10. Baylor (10-5/0-3)
Results: lost to Iowa State 70-60 and Houston 77-55
NET ranking: No. 50
Comment: The winless stretch to start conference play was easy to foresee once the Bears dropped their opener at TCU. Now they hit the road for two games (Stillwater and Lawrence), so 0-5 is a very real possibility. (Previous: 9)
11. Oklahoma State (13-3/1-2)
Results: beat UCF 87-76, lost at Iowa State 83-71
NET ranking: No. 60
Comment: We mentioned OSU’s bubble status above, and here’s the issue: More than half of the Cowboys’ wins (seven) are currently classified as Quadrant IV results. Meanwhile, they have zero Quadrant I victories. (Previous: 11)
12. West Virginia (11-5/2-1)
Results: beat Cincinnati 62-60 and Kansas 86-75
NET ranking: No. 70
Comment: We don’t view the Mountaineers as a bubble sitter, in large part because their pillowy soft non-conference schedule (353rd out of 365 teams, per Pomeroy) won’t be well received by the selection committee. (Previous: 13)
13. Arizona State (10-6/1-2)
Results: lost at BYU 104-76, beat Kansas State 87-84
NET ranking: No. 91
Comment: No team was dealt a tougher opening hand than the Sun Devils, who visit BYU, Arizona and Houston in the first 15 days of conference play. (Previous: 12)
14. Kansas State (9-7/0-3)
Results: lost at Arizona 101-76 and Arizona State 87-84
NET ranking: No. 73
Comment: The remainder of January is fully manageable for the Wildcats, who must take maximum advantage before February arrives and the schedule turns rugged. (Previous: 14)
15. Cincinnati (8-8/0-3)
Results: lost at West Virginia 62-60 and UCF 73-72
NET ranking: No. 95
Comment: The NET, which is based on results, has a more skeptical view of UC than the predictive Pomeroy Ratings, where the Bearcats are No. 64. (Previous: 15)
16. Utah (8-8/0-3)
Results: lost at Colorado 85-73 and to BYU 89-84
NET ranking: No. 131
Comment: Despite the mounting losses and fan frustration, it’s far too early to conclude first-year coach Alex Jensen was the wrong man for the job. In fact, we’ll give him until the middle of next season. (Previous: 16)
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline