Time to Stand With the People of Iran

Two years ago this month, I wrote an essay here at American Spectator entitled “We are at war with Iran’s mullahs.” In it, I noted all the ways in which the theocratic Iranian regime had long been waging war against the United States, sometimes pinpricks, sometimes more deadly actions, but always an insistent drumbeat of actions aimed at advancing the cause of radical Islam and undermining U.S. interests in the Middle East and throughout the world. (RELATED: We Are at War With Iran’s Mullahs)

In the intervening two years, this problem only became worse, largely because Joe Biden did nothing meaningful to counter the threat, leaving Donald Trump the unenviable task of unpicking a mess many years in the making. Today, however, we find ourselves in a much better position than ever before, largely because the supine response of the Biden years has been replaced by a muscular rejection of the mullahs’ assault on our interests and those of our Israeli allies.

Smash Hamas? With our encouragement, Israel has achieved massive results, although the job is not yet fully done. Subdue the Houthi attacks on shipping? Again, not “mission accomplished,” but mission substantially advanced. Corral the worldwide threat posed by Hezbollah? Consider the extent to which Israel, again with our encouragement, has diminished their military capabilities and crippled — via exploding pagers, quite literally crippled — much of their leadership. And now, through our arrest of Nicolás Maduro, we’ve begun the neutralization of a burgeoning Hezbollah military presence in our own backyard.

Above all, rather than the endless coddling of Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, and again, in concert with Israel, Donald Trump did what his predecessors utterly failed to do, smashing the industrial foundations of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, delaying for years, perhaps forever, a looming threat that had exerted a paralytic effect on our policy in the Middle East and elsewhere — even here at home.

When I framed the problem two years ago, I insisted that we simply needed to fight back for a change. This we have done. But I also insisted on an important distinction, namely that our war with the mullahs was in no way a war with the people of Iran. It was clear then that the people of Iran no longer wanted to live under a stiflingly theocratic and economically incompetent dictatorship.

On more than one occasion, they’d taken to the streets to signal their unhappiness, and on each occasion they’d received nothing in the way of encouragement from the U.S. Obama wanted a deal with the mullahs more than he wanted to help the suffering people of Iran — this much was clear. The same was true of Biden.

Now, as the people of Iran take to the streets once again, this time more massively, more powerfully, more insistently than ever before, we’ve reached a crossroads. Instead of the indifference and the sometimes thinly-veiled hostility of the Obama and Biden years, we make it clear, in no uncertain terms, that the U.S. stands with the people of Iran in their pursuit of freedom. Unlike his predecessors, Donald Trump has sent a clear message, both powerful and surprisingly nuanced. He has bluntly called out the Iranian regime’s violence toward its people, threatening a range of coercive measures if the regime continues its attempt to violently suppress the will of the people.

At the same time, he has carefully avoided calling for regime change or aligning the U.S. directly with emerging political factions. This is critical. It may be messy, and it may not produce results that perfectly align with our own interests, but letting the Iranian people themselves throw out the mullahs represents the best possible next step. And as Stephan Kapustka cogently argues, resist the temptation to put our hands on the scale as the Iranian people work out their future. (RELATED: The Prince and the Protests)

The Iranian “street” wants the mullahs gone, and the only thing that is keeping them in place is their monopoly on the instruments of violence. If we can change this part of the equation, if we can freeze the use of force to suppress the demonstrations, then the regime will inevitably collapse. Its only strength is its monopoly on the instruments of violence.

We understand that even now, the Department of War is providing the president with targeting options to achieve just such a result. One hopes that these include striking at the pillars of the theocracy’s power structure, most notably the IRGC, the “Revolutionary Guard,” and its Basij internal security forces. Down through the years, the Basij has demonstrated its eagerness to attack unarmed demonstrators — they might well be a bit less eager if their bases and barracks become subject to Tomahawk missile attacks.

Any such action, however, should concentrate on the IRGC, and, at least at the beginning, avoid targeting the Artesh, Iran’s regular army. The Artesh is frequently described as “non-political,” in contrast to the IRGC. This is misleading — the higher reaches of the Artesh command structure are filled, inevitably, with regime loyalists. But the very nature of how the army is recruited means that the enlisted ranks and many junior officers are “of the people” as much or more than being creatures “of the regime.”

Thus far, we’ve not seen the army leave its barracks to support the demonstrators, but it may be that this will only take a little nudge on our part. Cripple the IRGC, let the generals of the Artesh know that we are watching them very carefully, and use all our communications capabilities to persuade the troops to stand with the demonstrators, at the very least to disobey if ordered to fire on the demonstrators. This is the classic pattern of regime overthrow, repeated again and again down through the centuries. It can happen in Iran, and contra Obama, we should do our best to encourage this.

Should we fear blowback from the Iranian regime? Our Jed Babbin has analyzed this, concluding that the dangers are real, but manageable if we are on our guard. A particular concern, one that I’ve written about repeatedly, is the infiltration of terrorist cells through our southern border–we know this occurred, including considerable numbers of potential Iranian/Hezbollah elements, during the years of the Biden border flood. And we know that there are more than a few home grown American sympathizers, the same people who fill our streets with a “hate America” message, but sit on their hands as the Iranian people cry out against the cruelest oppression. Not least of the current ICE efforts should be to deal with this threat, although it can’t be accomplished quickly enough. (RELATED: A Dying Regime With a Loaded Gun)

Much can go wrong in the days to come, as such historical examples as the 1956 Hungarian revolt remind us. But to stand aside as a suffering people are standing for themselves? To be offered a golden opportunity to see the world rid of one of its most cancerous geopolitical growths? Acting carries significant risk, but doing nothing is also a form of action, and in this instance, undoubtedly the worst form of action — we’ve let this threat fester for far too long.

Cripple the regime’s capacity for coercion. Let the will of the Iranian people prevail. Be on guard against the thrashings of a monster in its death throes. This moment may not soon come again. Ignore the naysayers, and rebuke those who ignore real humanitarian disasters in favor of self-serving (or Communist China-serving) anti-ICE resistance cosplay. In much the same manner as the recent arrest of Maduro, this is a moment for the grown-ups, not the Squad and its ilk.

Remember the present moment, so full of hope, so fraught with consequence, is only a moment. The mullahs must go, and when that happens, the world will be a better place. However, the poison of radical Islam will still be coursing through the world’s bloodstream, and much will remain to be done, at home and abroad, before health is restored once again. But seize the present moment and seize it now.

READ MORE from James H. McGee:

The New York Times Keeps Getting It Wrong on Nigeria

Arresting Maduro: Not a ‘Green Light’ to Xi or Putin

Protecting Nigeria’s Christians: Trump’s Strike Against ISIS

James H. McGee retired in 2018 after nearly four decades as a national security and counter-terrorism professional, working primarily in the nuclear security field. Since retiring, he’s begun a second career as a thriller writer. He’s just published his new novel, The Zebras from Minsk, the sequel to his well-received 2022 thriller, Letter of Reprisal. The Zebras from Minsk find the Reprisal Team fighting against an alliance of Chinese and Russian-backed Venezuelan terrorists, brutal child traffickers, and a corrupt anti-American billionaire, racing against time to take down a conspiracy that ranges from the hills of West Virginia to the forests of Belarus. You can find The Zebras from Minsk (and Letter of Reprisal) on Amazon in Kindle and paperback editions.