As Big Tech eyes public offerings this year, market pressure, foreign influence, and AI bubble risks could undermine US economic stability and national security—especially amid competition with China.

Ten years ago, artificial intelligence (AI) was found only in science fiction. But now, it’s increasingly found elsewhere: in our computers, our conversations, and soon, on the stock market. This year will likely see public offerings from three gigantic American tech companies, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Unsurprisingly, each promises to yield immense amounts of money; SpaceX’s public offering is predicted to fetch up to $30 billion with a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion, making it the largest public offering in history.

But going public could also pose a problem. Artificial intelligence, whether it is a bubble or the way of the future, is going to significantly impact the global economy, as well as America’s national security, against adversaries like China and in a broader sense. These expected public offerings will obviously benefit these companies and could benefit the United States. But they could also threaten it in a variety of ways. 

Confronting China in the AI Race

Any company that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) deems to be important is at least somewhat influenced by the Chinese Communist Party. The PRC has a so-called “golden share” in many companies, giving them influence over operations, and most companies are required to have an in-house communist party committee. China does not have such a share in DeepSeek, however, the company must—whenever requested—turn over any information demanded by the PRC. AI is also a Chinese propaganda machine, refusing to answer basic historical questions (“What happened on June 4, 1989?”). And the government is currently considering rules to require Chinese-created AI to conform to “core socialist values.” And while DeepSeek and its parent companies are technically independent—even with the aforementioned restrictions—it is clear that, if need be, China’s government would find a way to direct the company the way that it will follow the party’s will.

The United States obviously has less of a direct say over its companies. This benefits our private companies by allowing creativity to flourish, outside the control of bureaucrats. But public offerings from our major AI companies will also mean that the government has even less say—and those companies may become even less loyal to the United States, depending on who purchases shares. 

If foreigners, particularly Chinese foreigners, are able to buy up stocks and gain any sort of influence in these companies, it could cause a significant problem. Look no further than what has already happened with Nvidia, which campaigned hard against the Guaranteeing Access and Innovation for National Artificial Intelligence Act (GAIN AI Act), a bill that would have forced it to sell chips to Americans before it sold to the Chinese. Nvidia’s opposition was not based on some sort of secret loyalty to the Chinese government: to the contrary, it was to shareholders. 

AI Bubble Concerns

Right now, the American economy would likely be in a recession without investment in AI companies. This is an immense problem, as some heavily-funded companies, such as Safe SuperIntelligence, have produced nothing at all. While others have obviously put out products—as anyone using ChatGPT or Claude can attest—it remains an open question as to how useful these products will be in the long term. Some undoubtedly will, such as AI-driven cancer detectors. But there are plenty of products which are not going to pan out—and if people realize too late, it will pop what could be a bubble. And a public offering will expand the potential disruptions caused by a bubble “pop” even further.

Past bubble collapses are instructive here: bad investments, motivated by a desire to keep investors happy and a lack of foresight as to the existence of a bubble in the first place (often hard to see from the inside), result in collapse. And being a financial investor does not magically give you foresight. We are already seeing this play out, with headlines trumpetinghow investors are not being deterred by AI bubbles. Which, from an investment standpoint, is entirely reasonable: these companies are liable to explode in the next few years, with some, such as SpaceX (more on that shortly), doing some truly revolutionary things. But those explosions could simply just be a bubble—and shareholders, too dazzled by dollar signs, may not realize it.

National Security Concerns of Public Offerings of Big Tech Companies

Finally, it’s briefly worth touching on national security, as these three companies offer, or will offer, AI or other tools used by the United States’ government.

All three have particularly large goals for the coming years. SpaceX, notably, wants to begin building data centers in space, and there has been some talk of there even being data centers on the moon. This would obviously solve some major issues around data centers, such as the cost of powering them (solar power is free, after all). But it also opens up some major national security questions: in the event of a war, these would become legitimate targets. Do we want to have states firing missiles at the moon? If SpaceX is responsible for a plethora of shareholders, they will likely not consider these questions, instead leaping at the chance to potentially expand the value of the company significantly.

Once a company is listed on the stock market, its performance directly affects the performance of the market. And if the United States needs to step in at some point to pull a company back (or urge them to slow up), that will likely affect the market—meaning a future president may be faced with some uncomfortable choices. 

The Price of Letting AI Go Public 

Shareholders around the world will be purchasing stock from most of these companies this year. The massive public offerings will be trumpeted in business publications as successes in and of themselves, and champagne will be popped to the future. But after every party comes the hangover. The individuals who run these companies, and the government officials who oversee them, should remember that.

About the Author: Anthony J. Constantini

Anthony J. Constantini is a policy analyst at the Bull Moose Project and the foreign affairs editor at Upward News. His work has appeared in a variety of domestic and international publications.

Image: mapo_japan/shutterstock

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