A Dying Regime With a Loaded Gun
The ayatollahs’ regime in Iran appears to be failing apart but they are still very dangerous. They have always had all of the morality of a cornered rat but now that the regime seems to be unraveling — and it may or may not — the more desperate they are, the more dangerous they will become. Today marks a day of more than two weeks of demonstrations and riots.
But the ayatollahs are not known for their sanity. As their regime grows weaker they will lose control over their military as well as their nation.
On Thursday Iran’s “supreme leader” Ayatollan Khameini blamed President Trump for the unrest in Iran. We should hope that the ayatollah is correct. On his first day in office, Trump should have tasked the CIA — in a secret presidential determination — to overthrow the Iranian regime. We don’t — and shouldn’t — know if Trump actually did.
The two weeks of riots and demonstrations have included increasing deaths on both sides. The regime cut off internet service across Iran on Thursday. It seems to be cutting off any access to outside information including news coverage which should surprise no one.
Lebanon indicated that it was disarming the Iranian terror proxy force, Hizballah, last week, but whether that is true is problematic. Mr. Trump has threatened that we would intervene if Iran kept killing the demonstrators and rioters.
In response, one of Iran’s military chiefs, Major General Amir Hatami, threatened military action against the United States. The questions are what form that action could take and how likely it is is that Iran would take it.
The only threats that Iran could mount against us are either in terrorist acts or a missile attack. The former is possible but the latter is very unlikely.
The Iranian proxy Hizballah has been operating in Venezuela for at least a decade without disturbance. Hizballah probably has, among the people former president Biden’s open borders let in, a number of people who could take terrorist action against the U.S.
But that is probably not at all likely if we are analyzing any act of terrorism that could kill thousands of Americans. They could — and almost certainly would if the ayatollahs order it — mount an attack that could kill dozens or hundreds. Nevertheless, we have to have some faith in the FBI and NSA in that they could prevent such an attack.
The other question is whether Iranian missiles, which have been developing greater and greater ranges — could be launched to attack the U.S.
Most or all of our significant missile defense systems have been deployed in Alaska and California. Our east coast, against which any Iranian missile attack would fly, is basically undefended. Moreover, any Iranian ship could launch a drone attack that could cause many deaths.
Regarding Iran’s missile capabilities our intelligence agencies apparently believe that Iran’s missiles cannot reach the U.S. but could reach Israel and Europe. We are left to worry if our intelligence agencies are right. They failed to warn of every major attack from Pearl Harbor to 9-11. How right are they now?
It also is apparent that the Israeli intelligence agencies are similarly concluding that Iran’s missiles are not capable of reaching the U.S. It’s more of a safe bet that they are correct.
Five years ago, Iran shot down — the Iranians claimed it was brought down by a cyber attack — a U.S. Air Force stealthy drone, an RQ-170 Sentinel. Whether they have learned from it — and possibly reverse-engineered it — remains to be seen.
Our Coast Guard and the Navy are keeping watch for Iranian ships — or any of the supposed “shadow fleet” of false-flagged ships — coming toward the U.S. But how close they can come before launching a drone attack is up to the engineering of the drones themselves.
If Iran managed to attack us, the regime’s ego would require it to brag to the international media. If they did, how would we respond? Trump would probably attack the regime, bombing whichever of the ayatollahs and probably their presidential palace and their parliament. The Iranians know this and that would serve as a deterrent to all but the craziest of people.
But the ayatollahs are not known for their sanity. As their regime grows weaker they will lose control over their military as well as their nation. We should, as I have written elsewhere, do everything we can to help the demonstrators cum revolutionaries in Iran. We have been called their “Great Satan” for long enough to push us to prove it.
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