The Prince and the Protests
Protests have been raging in Iran for over two weeks now. While there has been unrest against the theocratic Islamic Republic before, this time feels different. According to Fox News, more than 50 demonstrators have been killed by the forces of Ayatollah Khamenei. As the protests have spread, the regime has also placed the country under an internet blackout.
When he called for people to take to the streets on Thursday, they listened. Pahlavi definitely seems to have some personal purchase with the Iranian populace.
Taken as a whole, it certainly seems like Khamenei and his government are worried about their own survival. Many international observers have considered: if the Islamic Republic goes down, what comes next?
It’s a thorny question, but Reza Pahlavi seems like a straightforward answer. Pahlavi, one of the most notable faces of the opposition movement, is the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Iranian shah who was overthrown by the Iranian revolution in 1979. While his father’s deep unpopularity helped usher in the Ayatollahs to begin with, economic woes and the repression of the Iranian regime have ushered in a nostalgia for the old monarchy in recent years. The prince is indisputably the heir to the Persian throne and has been Westernized by his time in exile. But, that doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in.
Notably, The Washington Post referred to Pahlavi as a leader of the Iranian democratic opposition, not the leader. President Donald Trump appears to feel similarly, saying that it would not be “appropriate” to meet with Pahlavi. He further explained that “I think that we should let everybody go out there and we see who emerges.” Despite this, Pahlavi himself praised Trump in an op-ed for The Washington Post, lauding his “clear and firm support for the Iranian people.”
The administration has certainly kept a supportive attitude towards the anti-regime protesters. On January 10th, Secretary of State, Acting National Security Adviser, Acting USAID Administrator, and Acting Archivist of the National Archives Marco Rubio posted on X that “The United States supports the brave people of Iran.” Trump himself made a post on Truth Social saying that “Iran is looking for FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!” Trump previously threatened to intervene if the Iranian regime killed protesters.
So, what’s going on here really? It’s certainly clear that Trump and his administration want the Ayatollah and his Islamic regime gone. Notwithstanding their hostility to U.S. interests, there were several serious Iranian threats against Trump during the 2024 presidential election, including an attempted assassination plot. But at the same time, Trump likely doesn’t want to pick a preferred alternative in haste.
This accords with his administration’s policy in Venezuela. After the capture of the country’s dictator, Nicholas Maduro, by U.S. forces, there was some talk among Republican lawmakers about recognizing opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as the country’s next president. But Trump declined to do so, stating that she didn’t have enough “support” or “respect” within the country. Reportedly, the administration was concerned that Machado lacked the on-the-ground support she purported to have. Instead, the administration has been working with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez.
The overriding policy of the Trump administration, then, should be understood to be realism. Recognizing Machado as the rightful leader of Venezuela might be the “right” thing to do in some idealistic sort of way, but if that policy would destabilize Venezuela and make it harder to enact change, the only logical move is not to do so. The starry-eyed, naive attempts to nation-build Western-style democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq by neoconservatives and the Bush administration haven’t been forgotten.
Is Pahalvi in danger of being sidelined like Machado? It can’t be ruled out. Author Arash Azizi told CNN that “Pahlavi personally doesn’t have qualities that appeal to Trump. He is rather bookish and lacks the kind of personal charisma that could appeal to someone like Trump…. He will have a hard time winning over Trump.”
But there is plenty of cause to think Pahlavi could be different. Iranians have responded en masse to his calls for protests against the Ayatollah’s regime. When he called for people to take to the streets on Thursday, they listened. Pahlavi definitely seems to have some personal purchase with the Iranian populace, which is more than Machado or any other Iranian opposition figure can say. Whether that will be enough for him to reclaim his father’s Peacock Throne, only time will tell.
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