Democrats lose their vote registration advantage in key state

(The Center Square) – For the first time in North Carolina history, Republican voter registrations outnumber Democrats.

It’s a consolation prize at this point, with those choosing to be unaffiliated nearing the unprecedented 3 million mark and growing the last half of a year at a rate of 7 in 10 registration changes. Still, for a state once a stronghold of the liberal movement, the new order and 2,077 registration advantage is monumental.

For it was a mere 16 years ago when Democrats were in eight of 10 seats for the Council of State and commanded 30-20 and 68-52 majorities in the General Assembly. Then came the historic 2010 midterms, and both chambers being won by Republicans for the first time since Reconstruction 140 years earlier.

Today those figures are 5-5 in the executive offices, and Republicans hold advantages of 30-20 in the Senate and 71-49 in the House of Representatives.

Officially through Saturday, according to the State Board of Elections, there are 7,655,591 voters registered. Independence is chosen by 38.8% (2,976,558 registrations); 30.2% are Republicans (2,315,067); and 30.2% are Democrats (2,312,990). Libertarians account for another 46,608 and the Green Party has 4,368.

The difference in percentage share of Republicans over Democrats without rounding is 0.0271305. In the last week’s tabulations, the nearly 15,000 increase overall was ruled by the unaffiliated bloc (8,861, or 59.5%) followed by Republicans (4,318, or 29%) and Democrats (1,637, or 11%).

For Democrats, it is the seventh consecutive week of nominal increases; the end of August had previously been the last.

Democrats in March 2022 were surpassed by the number choosing no party; Republicans were surpassed in September 2017.

Total voter registrations eclipsed 7.8 million on Election Day 2024; routine maintenance throughout the year is a key contributing factor to the volume changes. This fall was an off-year election cycle, when 91 of 100 counties had municipal races.

For context on how Democrats once had a lock, from the every two years elections of 1930 to 1982 the party was below 43 of the 50 state Senate seats just twice (won 38 in 1969, won 35 in 1973) and didn’t have fewer than 30 until only getting 26 in the 1994 cycle. From 1930 to 1982 in the House, Democrats had fewer than 102 of the 120 just six times with 85 won in 1974 the worst.

Three decades ago at Election Day 1992, North Carolinians elected Democrats to all 10 Council of State positions and majorities of 39-11 in the state Senate and 78-42 in the House.

This story originally appeared in The Center Square.