Economy in 2026: the world finds itself in a delicate balance

After a year of intense volatility, the world economy enters 2026 with a complex mix of challenges and opportunities.

Most economists expect that growth will remain moderate by historical standards, around 2.4 per cent, as markets adjust to an environment of geopolitical uncertainty, high trade tariffs, limited monetary and fiscal room for stimulus in many countries and, at the same time, rapid technological transformations that are reshaping entire sectors and affecting traditional balances.

Despite this outlook, the relative resilience recorded in 2025, in contrast to most predictions pointing to a recession and strong inflationary pressures, creates conditions for a smooth adjustment.

Geopolitical tensions continue to be a major risk factor. The realignment of trade relations, driven by the dynamic presence of emerging economies, such as China and India, the imposition of restrictions on technology exports and shifts in energy flows are affecting supply chains and increasing transaction costs.

In response, many countries, including the EU, are attempting to shift toward greater regionalisation of production as they seek strategic autonomy and reduced dependence on geopolitically sensitive areas.

Global public debt remains at historically high levels, limiting the fiscal flexibility of the most vulnerable economies, especially those dependent on external borrowing.

Debt management, combined with maintaining a resilient banking and financial sector, is a critical factor for preserving market confidence and enabling the necessary investments for digital and energy transformation.

Technological progress in artificial intelligence, automation, data analytics and green energy is creating new investment opportunities and is acting as a key driver of growth, boosting productivity and partially offsetting macroeconomic imbalances and trade tensions.

In addition, several economies are expected to benefit from the continued decline in energy costs and the stabilisation of supply chains.

Taken together, as 2026 begins, the global economy finds itself in a delicate balance: risks are real and multidimensional, but technological acceleration, business adaptability and the gradual stabilisation of markets create an environment where growth, although low by historical standards, remains a feasible proposition.

Regarding the EU, it enters 2026 with an unusual balance between stability and pressure. On the one hand, the easing of inflation and the gradual strengthening of industrial production create favourable prospects.

On the other hand, the EU faces significant challenges, including the need to accelerate the green transition, strengthen its energy and military autonomy and address demographic pressures that continue to limit labour supply.

Success will depend on the EU’s ability to implement structural reforms, enhance business competitiveness and ensure that the digital and green transitions are accompanied by adequate funding and social cohesion.

Beyond these structural issues, analysts also highlight the growing importance of labour-market transformation across advanced and emerging economies.

The rapid adoption of AI-driven tools is reshaping job profiles and increasing demand for high-skilled workers while intensifying concerns about workforce displacement in medium and low skilled occupations.

Governments are, therefore, under pressure to expand reskilling programmes, modernise education systems and create safety nets that support workers transitioning between sectors.

At the same time, climate-related risks are becoming a central economic variable. Extreme weather events, disruptions to agricultural output and the rising cost of climate adaptation measures are expected to influence investment decisions and insurance markets throughout 2026.

Economies that manage to integrate climate resilience into their long-term planning are likely to gain a competitive advantage, particularly in attracting sustainable finance.

Another emerging trend is the strengthening of regional trade blocs. As global supply chains become more fragmented, countries are increasingly turning to regional partnerships to secure critical materials, stabilise energy flows and promote technological cooperation.

This shift may gradually redefine global trade patterns, reduce reliance on long-distance logistics and encourage more localised production ecosystems.

In conclusion, while uncertainty remains a defining feature of the global landscape, the interplay between technological innovation, climate adaptation and regional economic integration is likely to shape the trajectory of global growth in the years ahead.