KAI TIME
It’s FA Cup weekend, which, by my reckoning, would have us entering phase 6 of the season. This part of the season we’re taking to the 21st of March, at which point we break for the international period. It’s a run that sees a potential first cup final of the season, we’ll find out if we can qualify top of the Champions League and bypass the playoff game (we will), and we will see how seriously the manager plans to take the FA Cup.
The great thing about the FA Cup questions is that we have a squad so deep and so in need of shared minutes, there’s almost no way we’re sneaking in a double-barreled Hale-Ender this season unless it’s Dowman, who is still a couple of weeks away from a return.
The big name coming back, who I told you about yesterday, is Kai Havertz. The German has had a long time out of the team. It’s been quite sad if I’m honest. This monster man had worked out hard all summer, then exited again with another problem.
He couldn’t be returning at a better time. Arsenal have made a grave error of judgment with Viktor Gyokeres, and it would appear that he’s actually managing to regress game by game as the confidence of 24/25 totally crumbles. I thought it was deeply interesting to read all the data points people have been hiding during the ‘it’s not cool to say the obvious’ phase of this nightmare. There were a lot of ‘well, if Ken from Basingstoke says Viktor is average, he must be right?’ Well, guess what, Ken from Basingstoke was spot on and all the Twitter nerds owe him an apology. What a legend.
That Liverpool game was the moment the masses realized having a glint in your eye and being good at running around wasn’t the key to being a successful player in 2026. I will repeat: never has there been a more bizarre defense by sections of the fan base than the one we’ve witnessed. At least Ozil’s decline, due to the progress of the defensive side of the game, was somewhat smoke-and-mirrored by incredible vision. There have been no green shoots with Gyokeres. He’s managed 7 games without a shot, his form against top teams has been dismal, he barely touches the ball, and it’s looking increasingly like these visionary runs people think he’s making are passed by because the players sense there are more secure and dangerous options.
We still have the dregs of the tactico class wittering on about elite mentality and hard work. It’s nonsense peddled by folk who hedge that if Arteta is starting someone, there’s a righteous path. The idea that good things come to those who work just doesn’t cut the mustard; this is the Premier League, every striker works their arse off. Work rate isn’t class, it isn’t a first touch, and it cannot help you if you’re slow and you lack football power.
I also keep getting ‘it’s the system’ in my ear.
Crazy to watch the tacticos turn themselves inside out to blame the system for the Gyokeres issues. A system that is top of the Premier League & Champions League and into the semis of the League Cup. 2nd for goals scored in EPL. 2nd for shots taken. 2nd for xG. 3rd for big chances created. Number 1 for set pieces. Widely viewed as one of the most tactically flexible in Europe.
The evidence for the system malfunction is usually an out-of-context still of an incredible creative player choosing not to make a through ball... ignoring the speed, power, and technique of a player who has had 23 games in an elite system and failed to score in open play since September.
September people… in a high functioning system, for the best team in the world. Sesko might have had a system issue - new manager, 8 shots, 7 in target, 2 goals, in a single game. Even this young player, who we knew needed coaching, has had 56% more shots, 89% more shots on target… in a system that has been lambasted for being negative and ‘not the United way.’ I’m not saying I want Sesko, I’m just pointing out that the counter argument here is improving in a mess while our guy is declining.
The only light at the end of the tunnel here is Kai, Merino, and Jesus. The short-term problem is that we’re going to struggle to sell someone who will be 28 this summer on a long-term deal worth around £200k a week. Which of the small leagues has the capacity to absorb that sort of cost for someone who has flopped so publicly on the big stage? Not many. This guy has “loan with an option to buy” written all over him. Unless Berta has super-agent magic and can shift him on to one of Jorge Mendes’ clubs this summer.
Back to Kai—is he perfect? Yes. The most perfect man that ever did exist. A mint sorbet palate cleanser at a fine dining establishment right now. Jokes aside, we know he has weaknesses. But, overall, he has a lot of tools that we just don’t have in that 9 role right now.
The ball sticks to him. He can turn. He is a threat from set pieces. He brings players into the game. He has extreme strength. He can break free of defenders. He will not be bullied.
The thing I’m looking for is: can he add more “9” to his game? Gyokeres’ biggest strength is he tends to stick to 9 positions on the pitch. He doesn’t join the build-up, he doesn’t float like Jesus does, and he makes runs in behind a lot. What will Kai do when he returns? There will be an evolution. We know he’s bulked up, but I don’t think this is all about him… the Arsenal system has evolved since he left. We have more creators, we’re much more direct, and the shape of the setup has been reconfigured to be more appropriate for a more basic striker.
This is why I think there’s a chance we just see a slightly unexpected Kai returning and why I think we could see a really positive evolution for Arsenal. Add to that the class this guy has. So many coaches talk about his intelligence and technical skills. We have had a player in that 9 role who has only attempted 10 or more passes in 36% of his Premier League games. Kai Havertz only registered less than 10 passes in 9% of his games over 54 games a few seasons back. He made 37 passes as a forward against Bournemouth 2 seasons ago. The most passing involvement we’ve seen from Viktor is 16 against Palace. His last 7 games have seen 40 pass involvements in total. We are getting a different beast back in the side—and I cannot wait.
Portsmouth away is also fun because we’ll get to see some very fun players who have been put out in the cold a little bit. Eze can come back into the creative role and maybe combine with Jesus to create some havoc. Merino will play in midfield; I suspect Martinelli will get time out on the left. Norgaard and Kepa will have to get minutes. Our defense is a little bit under water, but you can’t imagine MLS will be benched, he has to start. Ben White will start. It should be a very good afternoon for rotation without really compromising too much.
Portsmouth are not in good shape. Since they blew a lot of money to win the FA Cup, it has been very much downhill for them. They are 21st in the Championship right now, coming back off an absolute 5-0 walloping from Bristol, who sit 10th in the league.
They will lift their spirits, because it’s Arsenal at home, but you really would expect Arsenal to go to town and pick this side apart. The combo of title-winning blood in the water and a bunch of players who want to impress is likely too much for them. I want to see a destruction mindset and no injuries.
Final quick hit. Arsenal’s PR team knew they couldn’t soften the blow of the Liverpool draw with an expensive piece of merch, so they moved on to leaking the new Bukayo deal. He’s signing until he’s 29 years old, which is incredible; now we need to see him move to the next level of his game and contribute some serious G&As from now until the end of the season. We need to see him move to god-mode and prove he’s the heir to Mo Salah in this league.
Right, that’s all I have for you. Check out all the members’ podcasts and jump on the Therapy Session if you want to see what it’s like. x