Taking some early swings on the 2026 season, starting with the low-expectation Nationals

LAS VEGAS — With the Nevada state line in sight on the long trek down I-15 from California, handicapper Tommy Lorenzo looked for the off-ramp Dec. 20 and steered into the Primm Valley Resort & Casino, which houses a William Hill sportsbook.

Lorenzo had been massaging his Major League Baseball numbers, and as a priority investment for the 2026 season, he targeted under 69.5 wins for the Nationals.

Caesars/William Hill had unveiled its baseball win-total figures, fueling Lorenzo’s early-morning mission.

“Full organizational re-set,” he said of the Nats. “I think young starters struggle with command and durability, which dominos into that weak bullpen. Starting pitching really is the swing factor here. Starters have the highest impact in terms of win totals. If they had a No. 2 or 3 starter that I felt had any potential to be impactful, that swings a season-win total by six to eight victories.”

The Nats hurlers with at least 30 starts in 2025 were right-hander Jake Irvin (9-13, 5.70 ERA), and lefties Mitchell Parker (9-16, 5.68) and MacKenzie Gore (5-15, 4.17). In four big-league seasons, Gore hasn’t had a winning campaign.

“He’s good, but I don’t see anyone else being reliable in that starting rotation,”
Lorenzo said. “And then the bullpen starts to be overworked.”

Nationals president Paul Toboni hired Ani Kilambi as general manager on Dec. 17, triggering Lorenzo’s excavation process. Blake Butera had been named the team’s manager in late October.

Toboni is 35 and Butera 33. The 31-year-old Kilambi, a metric fiend, has worked in the Phillies and Rays organizations.

“In the short term,” Lorenzo said of that youth, “there’s gonna be some mighty tough growing pains.”

Over the last five seasons, the Nationals have averaged 65.6 wins, a four-game cushion under the projected 2026 total.

Their bullpen, by WAR figures at Baseball-Reference.com, is rated minus-9.6, baseball’s worst, and their 5.35 team ERA was second-worst behind the Rockies (5.90).

Lorenzo wagered under the 69.5 total, at -110 (risk $110 to win $100) and tied it to other action to enhance his futures-parlay portfolio.

On Dec. 28, I made the solo wager at the Caesars outlet at the Horseshoe to open my 2026 MLB portfolio. This past Sunday, I went to the William Hill shop at the M Resort to tie that to other futures action, à la Lorenzo.

In his first full major-league season last year, Nats left fielder James Wood did smack 31 homers and drive in 94 runs, hitting .256. He’s the lone danger man in that lineup, but Lorenzo noted that pitchers figured him out.

“He had 22 home runs in the first half, nine in the second,” he said. “Wood is a good, young power hitter, but he doesn’t move the needle for me. In fact, the second-half regression in power and contact rate are two key components I look at when hunting for under plays in player home-run totals.”

That’s what led Lorenzo to hammer under 16½ dingers (at -110) last season for Jhonkensy Noel of the Guardians. He belted 13 as a rookie in 2024 but poked only six over the fences last season.

Big-ticket cash for Lorenzo.

Murakami-Sama

The Cubs have a projected total of 88.5, over -120. In his two seasons managing the Cubs, Craig Counsell improved their victory total from 83 to 92 last season.

Lorenzo has the Cubs pegged at 86 wins, with a ceiling of 90. On Wednesday, the team traded several minor-leaguers to the Marlins for hard-throwing 6-5 starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. In his last four seasons, for a club that surprised many by going 79-83 last year, Cabrera averaged 20 starts, an ERA around 4.00 and a poor WHIP.

“The NL Central is only getting tougher,” Lorenzo said. “Their 88.5 isn’t outrageous, though. If other books push that to 90 or over, I’ll likely be on the under.”

The White Sox’ total is 65.5. Over their last three years, they’ve averaged 54 wins.

“With the White Sox, go over,” Lorenzo said. “Still rebuilding, but I have them at 68 to 69 wins. If Murakami hits, all the better.”

On Dec. 21, the Sox inked Japanese first baseman Munetaka Murakami to a two-year deal for $34 million. The 6-2, 213-pound lefty slugger belted 56 homers for Yakult in 2022, when he won Japan’s Triple Crown.

Fans called him “Murakami-sama,” connoting god-like status. It was selected as the buzzword of Japan in ’22.

An injured oblique muscle limited him to 224 plate appearances last season. When he did play, he had a high whiff rate. But he reportedly will be healthy for spring training.

Giants over 82.5?

Caesars set the total on the Athletics, who begin playing in Las Vegas in 2028, at 75.5 wins (over -130). They were 76-86 in 2025.

At -125 are the Orioles over 85.5 and Royals under 81.5, -120 on Pirates over 73.5, Padres over 85.5 and Blue Jays over 91.5, and -115 on Brewers over 87.5

Lorenzo will monitor over 82.5 wins on the Giants. When other books release their numbers, he’ll gravitate toward value.

The favored World Series exacta is Dodgers over Yankees at 12-to-1, then Yanks over Dodgers at 22-1. For those with immense faith, both Cubs over White Sox and White Sox over Cubs are 1,000-1 shots.