NFL picks: Expect Jaguars to sink their teeth into Bills

LAS VEGAS — Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is ready for his playoff close-up, having guided his guys to eight consecutive victories.

After Sunday’s 41-7 pasting of the Titans, Jaguars cornerback Jarrian Jones and other teammates gifted Lawrence with a “grill,” diamond-embedded false teeth, that the quarterback slipped onto the top and bottom rows of his chiclets.

The locker room exploded in glee.

“It’s just been awesome this year with the team and just how close we are,” Lawrence told reporters. “I think that’s really the fun part of it.”

Only the AFC South rival Texans, having won nine in a row, are more of a steam train entering the postseason. The Jaguars, however, covered the spread in all eight of their wins; the Texans are 6-3 ATS in their run.

In his last six games, Lawrence has thrown for 15 touchdowns and had only one of 192 passes intercepted. He also has four rushing TDs. Jacksonville also owns a 0.234 points-per-play (PPP) margin at home. It’s the most efficient squad inside its own barn in the NFL.

Running and catching, Travis Etienne threatens foes. Plus, rookie tailback Bhayshul Tuten returned last weekend from finger surgery and scored. That two-headed backfield will boost the Jags’ attack against a bad rushing defense.

On the road, the Bills yield 149 average rushing yards, second-worst in the league to the Giants (161). The Jaguars have the league’s finest rush defense, allowing fewer than 86 yards a game. Expect Bills running back James Cook, with 35 total yards in two lifetime games against the Jags, to struggle.

Moreover, the Bills have dropped their last three in Jacksonville and four of five. Worse, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 0-4 SU and ATS in road playoff games.

Former UMass quarterback Liam Coen, 40, parlayed offensive-coordinator stints with the Rams and Buccaneers into his first gig as a coach, and the Jaguars won their third division crown in 26 years.

He might be next in line for a glittery grill.

Best bet

BILLS at JAGUARS

Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.

Line: Bills by 1½.

Total: 52½.

Records (overall/ATS): Bills 12-5/8-9; Jaguars 13-4/11-5-1.

Pick: Jaguars 26, Bills 17.

Play: Jaguars +1½.

HOW MIECH’S PLAYS FARED

                    Last week   Overall

Best bet 1-0 7-11

Top 3       2-1 31-22-1

Overall   8-8 125-139-5

7-point tease 11-5      191-76-2

Other plays

RAMS at PANTHERS

Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32.

Line: Rams by 10½. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Rams 12-5/12-5; Panthers 11-6/10-7.

Outlook: In points-per-play (PPP) margin in their last three, the Rams are a sluggish -.060, the Panthers -.023. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven at Carolina, including that31-28 loss six weeks ago as 10-point faves.

Pick: Rams 23, Panthers 21.

Play: Panthers +10½.

PACKERS at BEARS

Time: 7 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32, Prime Video.

Line: Packers by 1½. Total: 45½.

Records (overall/ATS): Packers 9-7-1/6-10-1; Bears 11-6/10-6-1.

Outlook: Pro bettor Bill Krackomberger eagerly bets against the Bears here. “Been saying all year,” he says, “their reign of coming back on teams is over.” Know that he wagers four times as much on player props as he does on NFL sides.

Pick: Packers 25, Bears 20.

Play: Packers -1½.

49ERS at EAGLES

Time: 3:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.

Line: Eagles by 4½. Total: 44½.

Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 12-5/11-6; Eagles 11-6/10-7.

Outlook: Saddled with nine road games, the 49ers made lemonade and went 7-2. Their highway .082 PPP margin ranks fifth in the NFL. RB Christian McCaffrey dials it up a degree away from home, and he’s the difference.

Pick: 49ers 19, Eagles 14.

Play: 49ers +4½.

CHARGERS at PATRIOTS

Time: 7:15 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.

Line: Patriots by 3½. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 11-6/8-8-1; Patriots 14-3/11-6.

Outlook: It’s tough to trust the Chargers on the road, where their PPP margin is underwater (-.016). In eight of his last 10 games, Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had nine passes picked off. Plus, he’s 0-2 in the postseason.

Pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 21.

Play: Patriots -3½.

TEXANS at STEELERS

Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.

Line: Texans by 3. Total: 39½.

Records (overall/ATS): Texans 12-5/9-8; Steelers 10-7/9-8.

Outlook: Steelers get WR DK Metcalf back, and they need him against this imposing defense. Our math (24-20) and computer (27-19) models favor the Texans. Steelers are 0-6 (SU and ATS) in their last six playoff games.

Pick: Texans 21, Steelers 10.

Play: Texans -3.