The military is running out of teenagers to recruit — and old-school methods to reach them are failing

Military recruiting is on the upswing, but many recruiters say it's never been harder to get young people interested in service.

Phone lists of numbers that once rang a family landline now dead-end at parents' cellphones. School access can vary from one street to the next. And while a direct message might be the fastest way to reach an overly online 17-year-old, finding the right social media handle can feel like chasing ghosts. The hunt has become so grueling that the time it takes to meet quotas of up to two recruits a month is pushing some recruiters into burnout territory.

These are some of the frustrations Business Insider heard while speaking to nearly four dozen Marine recruiters, leaders, and other officials for a four-part series on recruiter welfare.

The hunt for solutions is on, and legislation and use of artificial intelligence could be on the horizon.

The Pentagon is facing steep declines in young Americans' propensity and fitness to serve and public confidence in the military, long one of the government's most-trusted institutions, according to public polling.

Boosting young Americans' interest in service, and reaching them in the first place, will require more than traditional military recruiting efforts, those involved agree. Political momentum for broader measures is already building.

Project 2025, the conservative policy blueprint, outlines a major expansion of recruiting in schools: increased access for recruiters, more Junior ROTC programs, and a requirement that federally funded schools administer the military entrance exam. An effort to provide recruiters with improved access to high schools was included in the national defense spending bill signed into law in December.

The office of the defense secretary, which did not respond to a request for comment, recently established a new Recruitment Task Force. The Corps' Recruiting Command, which is part of the task force, is seeking legislative changes to help "improve the student data collected in support of recruiting," a Marine spokesman told Business Insider.

Experts are pressing for urgent solutions as population shifts reduce pools of young people eligible for the military.

"The coming declining birth rate challenge is so pronounced, even if the services were doing everything right to get to our current requirements, the math is just going to change," said Kate Kuzminski, the director of studies at the Center for a New American Security and author of a recent report on recruiting.

Over the next 16 years, the total number of children turning 18 is expected to fall by 700,000, representing a 13% drop, according to Kuzminski's research.

"Recruiters' jobs are going to be made a lot more difficult by this generational decline," Kuzminski said. Soon, they'll be forced to contend with capturing a larger percentage of American youth than ever before to meet the same end-strength requirements.

As recruiting pools narrow, the Army and Navy have found a way to turn otherwise unqualified young people into fit recruits, with new pre-boot camp preparatory courses to help applicants raise test scores or lose weight to meet military fitness standards.

The approach has helped dramatically boost enlistments. But the effort has drawn scrutiny over whether those services are accepting too many low-scoring applicants.

"The things that have worked up until now are not going to work in the future," Kuzminski said of recruiting.

Old phone lists, new realities

For now, Marines still find new recruits by canvassing malls, attending community events, visiting schools, messaging social media accounts, and making dozens of phone calls that often reach a parent who isn't thrilled about the idea of their child joining the military.

High schools that receive federal funding are legally required to allow recruiters access to grounds for pitches to classrooms or career fairs. But several recruiters said access isn't uniformly offered, and can hinge on the relationships recruiters foster with educators.

A Marine recruiting official said geography can play a role and that some areas in the Northeast are known for more regularly keeping out recruiters.

More than half a dozen recruiters said conservative or rural areas aren't necessarily more welcoming, either. In their view, new enlistees are rarely motivated by politics; they're drawn by purpose, belonging, and the promise of financial stability.

Even in places where "support the troops" is a common refrain, recruiters said, many parents resist the idea of their children joining the military.

Another factor: With fewer Americans personally connected to the armed forces, interest in enlisting has waned. A dwindling veteran population means fewer role models to inspire the next generation, and after two decades of the Global War on Terror, some veterans discourage their own children from serving.

Recruiters say this reflects a growing divide between the military and civilian America — and a misunderstanding of what daily military life can entail — not just heroic Navy SEALs, or Top Gun pilots, but also equipment maintenance, human resources management, and mundane planning for those holding senior ranks.

The result of this divide, recruiters said, isn't just apathy. Three recruiters told Business Insider they've had guns pulled on them when visiting homes. One, who remains on active duty, recalled being called a "baby killer" and a "slave" to the government by an irate parent.

Reaching Gen Z with AI, not cold calls

As phone lists falter and school access remains inconsistent — problems compounded by falling US birth rates and shrinking pools of potential recruits — recruiters are trying to meet teens where they already are: online. Social media has become a routine part of the job; artificial intelligence, meanwhile, is only beginning to surface as a potential tool.

Many recruiters already use social media to connect with young people, though with varying results. Earlier this year, the Army tried partnering with influencers already in uniform to pique interest in enlistment, an effort that was halted after running into legal hurdles.

When it comes to contacting prospective recruits through social media, some recruiters say it can feel inappropriate, acutely aware of past misconduct cases and wary of how easily online interactions can blur boundaries.

At the same time, the military's ties with Big Tech are deepening and opening new doors. A handful of leaders from Silicon Valley, including executives from Palantir, Meta, and OpenAI, were commissioned into the US Army Reserve earlier this year. It's part of a larger Army transformation effort to prepare the service for future conflicts, which some defense experts have said will require help from Silicon Valley.

In building the manpower for the future fight, leaning on emerging technology and, particularly, artificial intelligence could help recruiters identify and contact young people who may be predisposed to service, such as athletes, gamers, or those interested in science, technology, engineering, and math fields, said retired Marine Col. Bill Gray, who led recruiting efforts across the Southeast from 2018 to 2021.

Recruiting has long been one of the military's toughest jobs, and when it tanks, Gray said, the answer has long been to expect recruiters to work harder, an idea that he said feels out of date with emerging technologies.

One fix, he said, could be giving recruiters access to contact information that's publicly available but not easily accessible. He recalled once watching recruiters flip through physical copies of high school yearbooks to zero in on star athletes and other standout students, a time-suck.

"It's mind-boggling to me that we are even having this conversation because of the time that could be saved," he said. "You could be processing at machine speed instead of one-human speed."

Without a draft, increased face time with prospective recruits would be critical if the nation were to enter a large-scale war, said one senior Marine official familiar with recruiting demands who spoke on condition of anonymity.

While AI tools have the potential to make connecting with recruits easier, the official said that effort could run up against federal laws restricting the military's ability to collect or analyze data about US citizens.

"We are recruiting children," the official said. "It's good that it's hard for our recruiters to find children who want to join. It should not be easy."

"There's a reluctance to go down some of these paths," Gray, the retired colonel, said. "People say, 'Well, we're making mission, so if it ain't broke, don't fix it." Some recruiters say the system is breaking them — putting them under stress and threatening to derail their military careers.

"You could make life so much easier for those guys and gals," Gray said.