Trump’s new foreign policy strategy: Realism in theory, imperialism in practice

My last column a couple of weeks ago was titled, “Trump’s new National Security Strategy pushes global realism.”  I commended the move from 1990s “unipolarity,” when America was by far the strongest nation in the world, to a realization we now are in “multipolarity.” That meant two other countries, China and Russia, joined us as the three top powers, each with its own spheres of influence, ours being the Western Hemisphere. 

But I warned President Trump’s policy also “includes a more aggressive stance toward Latin America, seen in his belligerence toward Venezuela.” That aggressive stance struck with a bang on Jan. 3, when he sent the U.S. military to grab Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and bring him to New York to stand trial.

Not that I would expect him to, but Trump obviously didn’t follow my call for an updated version of President Franklin Roosevelt’s Good Neighbor policy toward Latin America, which I dubbed the Good Hood policy. To develop that idea, it would mean lifting the sanctions on the leftist governments in Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia and Nicaragua, and encouraging investment by American companies to counter Chinese and Russian investment. 

That’s what the West did in Soviet-run Eastern Europe in the 1980s. Western investment cracked open those countries and gave them a glimpse of capitalism and freedom. Investments in those years totaled $5 billion a year, according to a 1999 study by the Bureau of Economic Research. The result? “The Berlin Wall fell in the autumn of 1989 and the countries of central Europe embarked very quickly on programs of liberalization, privatization and institutional change.”

No invasions. No wars. No killing. Just capitalist investment and good will.

Instead, Trump has been threatening action against Cuba, Nicaragua, Colombia and even Mexico. At an impromptu press conference on Air Force One, a reporter asked, “So there will be an operation by the U.S. in Colombia?” He replied, “Sounds good to me.”

Then there are his threats to make Canada the 51st state and grab Greenland from Denmark, the latter being the most serious. The Kingdom of Denmark is an original, founding member of NATO. It’s true NATO is obsolete and the U.S. should consider leaving it. But only Congress could end that treaty – assuming it stops being supine before Trump.

Article 5 of the treaty stipulates an attack on a NATO member “shall be considered an attack against them all.” And “each of them” is supposed to use “armed force” to “restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” A U.S. invasion of Greenland would mean the U.S. would have defend Greenland against the U.S.

Meanwhile, as of this writing, Venezuela’s government continues to function, the only visible change being Maduro was replaced by interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Her father was Jorge Antonio Rodríguez. According to Wikipedia, he was a leader of the Revolutionary Left Movement, which in 1976 kidnapped American executive William Niehous, who was later rescued by rural police. 

In 1979 the elder Rodríguez “died under torture while being interrogated by the Directorate of Intelligence and Prevention Services,” the state intelligence agency, when his daughter was 7 years old. No wonder she remained defiant in a Tuesday speech, “The government of Venezuela runs our country. No one else.” 

In an interview published in the Jan. 8 New York Times, Trump said, “Only time will tell” how long the U.S. will be running the country. But what if Rodríguez and her government stand firm? What if the Venezuelan people back them? Will Trump launch a full-scale invasion? Will he also invade the other countries? How many troops will that take? How many of them will die? How many Latin Americans? And all the mayhem and murder would be recorded on smart phones and uploaded to social media globally.

Trump also just said he wants to boost U.S. defense spending from $1 trillion now to $1.5 trillion in 2027. It will be paid for by the tariffs. But what about the $2,000 tariff dividend checks he promised U.S. taxpayers? And the national debt approaching $40 trillion? And his promise of “no regime-change wars”? 

The absurdities pile up. 

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board and blogs at: johnseiler.substack.com